Monday Night Showdown: Can Cowboys or Raiders Ignite a Season-Altering Comeback?

Here’s a Monday Night Football clash that could double as a thriller or a cautionary tale. The Dallas Cowboys, limping into Week 11 at 3-5-1, are staring down the barrel of a must-win if they want to keep any realistic playoff hopes alive in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders, flirting with a 2-7 record, look equally desperate, trying to salvage some dignity and momentum under Pete Carroll’s eye. What’s intriguing here isn’t just the numbers or the players on the field, but the storylines bubbling under the surface—Dak Prescott’s turf struggles, Quinnen Williams shaking up the defense after a blockbuster trade, and the emotional weight of honoring Marshawn Kneeland. Can the Cowboys resurrect their season on the grass in Allegiant Stadium, or will the Raiders’ bruising outside zone and Brock Bowers’ electric presence tilt the scales? The Opta supercomputer leans heavily in Dallas’ favor with a 73.7% win probability, but in a league where anything can happen on any given night—who’s really got the edge? Hang tight, the keys and predictions are all locked and loaded for what’s shaping up to be a gripping Week 11 finale. LEARN MORE

At 3-5-1, Dallas needs a win to save its season in the competitive NFC, while Las Vegas might be even more desperate after falling to 2-7. We’ve got the keys and the Opta supercomputer’s win probability for this NFL Week 11 finale.

Cowboys vs. Raiders: The Key Stats

The Cowboys are considered road favorites Monday night, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 73.7% win probability (as of Sunday).
The Raiders’ Allegiant Stadium has a natural grass surface. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has a 70.6 passer rating in three games this season when playing on grass and a 112.1 passer rating in six games on artificial turf.
Las Vegas rookie Ashton Jeanty is averaging 4.8 yards per carry in the first half. He’s averaging just 2.8 in the second half and overtime.

When the public last saw the Dallas Cowboys, they were humbled with a 27-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 9.

The defeat dropped the Cowboys to 3-5-1 heading into last week’s bye, and there aren’t many who give Dallas a strong chance at making a playoff run.

Since the 2002 realignment, only 8.9% of teams that have started 4-5 or worse have made the playoffs. The Opta supercomputer gives the Cowboys a 16.6% chance of qualifying for the postseason, but the odds certainly seem to be against them.

Just don’t tell that to Jerry Jones.

Despite a disappointing first half of 2025, the Dallas owner and general manager made the Cowboys buyers at the trade deadline, sending defensive tackle Mazi Smith and a first- and second-round pick to the New York Jets for three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.

The move left some fans perplexed. Williams is a very good interior player, ranking above average at both pass-rush win rate and run disruption rate. But the Cowboys traded away Micah Parsons – an elite player at a more valuable position – partially due to money concerns. Williams carries a cap hit of $21.8 million next season and $25.5 million in 2027.

The Cowboys were also in the news for a tragic reason during their bye week, with the sudden death of second-year defensive end Marshawn Kneeland. The 24-year-old Kneeland died of an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, and his body was discovered the morning of Nov. 6.

The Cowboys haven’t taken the field since Kneeland’s tragic death, and the team plans to honor his memory when it visits the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.

“We understand our best way to honor Marshawn on the field is by how we play,” Dallas coach Brian Schottenheimer told reporters on Thursday. “That’s something we get to control. And I think the guys are excited about that.

“We don’t move on, but we do move forward.”

The unfortunate reality is that the NFL schedule keeps moving, and the Cowboys need a win to save their season in a competitive NFC playoff picture.

The Raiders may be even more desperate after falling to 2-7 with a 10-7 loss to the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. Despite being near the bottom of the league standings, Las Vegas has lost its last two games by a combined four points, and there have been some signs of growth for Pete Carroll’s team.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys game-preview

Raiders’ Key to Victory vs. Cowboys

While cheering for a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2002, Raiders fans have endured some rough performances over the last two decades.

But Las Vegas’ 31-0 Week 7 loss at the Kansas City Chiefs may have been rock-bottom.

The Raiders had just three first downs in the whole game, and one of them came from a penalty. Since 1991, only two teams have gained fewer first downs in a game.

The following week, they picked up 26 first downs and 331 yards of total offense but lost 30-29 to the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a failed two-point conversion in overtime.

The key difference? The production of Brock Bowers.

The second-year tight end has been limited to six games due to knee injuries, but he put up 127 yards on 12 catches and three touchdowns in that Week 9 loss to the Jaguars. He had just one catch for 31 yards last week against the Broncos.

Since the start of last season, the Raiders are 1-13 when Bowers plays but has fewer than 75 receiving yards. They are 4-5 when he has 75 yards or more.

Bowers ranks third among tight ends with 2.5 burn yards per route run (minimum 50 routes) this season. He even grades out as an above-average run blocker at his position, making him easily the most important player on the offense.

Opposing quarterbacks are completing 77.1% of their passes to tight ends against the Cowboys’ defense, so the Raiders should target Bowers early and often on Monday night.

The Raiders, though, have not been very good at running the ball despite having talented rookie Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. They rank 26th with a 33.3% success rate, but they have been among the best teams at running the outside zone, or “stretch,” concept.

In outside zone, the offensive line and tight ends all flow toward the play side, with the quarterback “stretching” the ball out wide as the running back aims toward the outside leg of the tight end.

At any point, however, the runner can cut back, punishing the defense for flowing too aggressively. While blocking in space can be a challenge for some bigger offensive linemen, the back can easily change course if he sees his blocker has been beaten.

The perfect partner for outside zone is a bootleg pass, in which the offensive line flows in the direction of a play fake, drawing defenders, but the quarterback rolls out in the opposite direction.

The Raiders have a 51.9% success rate on bootleg plays this season. When running bootleg, 95.8% of the Raiders’ passes have targeted open receivers, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.

Cowboys’ Key to Victory vs. Raiders

The formula for the Cowboys has been fairly simple: light up the scoreboard or lose.

Dallas’ 31st-ranked defense is allowing 30.8 points per game, and quarterbacks facing the Cowboys have a passer rating of 112.3. The run defense hasn’t been any better, allowing a league-high 85 rushing first downs.

That puts a lot of pressure on Dak Prescott and the offense. The Cowboys are 3-0-1 when scoring over 30 points this season, but they’re 0-5 when scoring fewer than 30 points.

The top of the game plan for any team when facing the Raiders is dealing with Maxx Crosby. The star edge rusher only has 5.0 adjusted sacks but he’s deflected six passes, has 13 tackles for loss and ranks sixth in run disruption rate.

The Cowboys rank 25th with a 50.0% pressure rate allowed up front, and it is a testament to Prescott’s decision-making that they rank third in the league with a 4.0% sack rate allowed.

Facing a Las Vegas defense that is stout against the run, the quick passing game could be a good way to keep the chains moving without Prescott taking too many hits – especially on early downs.

Quick passing concepts, defined as one- or three-step drops with routes that don’t take long to develop, have been an important weapon for the Cowboys.

Dallas ranks eighth in the NFL with a 49.1% success rate on quick concepts and its pressure rate allowed drops to 37.7% on such plays.

While George Pickens has the reputation as a speedy deep threat, he has been much more than that this season. In fact, 58.3% of Pickens’ targets have resulted in a first down, which is tied for the highest mark in the league with tight end Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills.

Pickens had some super productive games while CeeDee Lamb was out with an ankle injury, but Pickens has remained an integral part of the offense since Lamb returned.

In the three games with the star wideout back, Pickens has averaged 8.0 targets, 5.7 receptions and 79.7 receiving yards. He also leads the team with a 30.1% target share on quick concepts.

Dallas runs over 80% of its quick passes out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers), and the team could find matchup advantages against a Las Vegas defense that plays base 38.9% of the time against 11 personnel.

Cowboys vs. Raiders Prediction

The pressure will be turned up in Las Vegas for Monday Night Football, with both the Raiders and the Cowboys desperately needing a win.

If the Raiders fall to 2-8, any hope of a miracle playoff run would disappear, especially with tough upcoming games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs.

The Cowboys have a slightly more plausible path to the playoffs, but their next three games are against the Eagles, Chiefs and Detroit Lions, making Monday’s game a virtual must-win.

Despite Dallas being 1-4 on the road, the Opta supercomputer gives the Cowboys a 73.7% win probability in this showdown between two once-proud franchises.

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