NBA Cup 2025 Showdown: Can Underdog Spurs Upset Lakers and Will Suns’ Firepower Outshine Thunder’s Grit?

As the calendar flips to December, the heat of the 2025 Emirates NBA Cup knockout stage is turning up—and it’s no time for the faint of heart. Eight teams—splitting the East and West—find themselves on the brink, caught in a do-or-die quarterfinal frenzy where every possession counts double. The victors? They’ll zoom off to Las Vegas for semifinals that promise not only high stakes but the chance to stake a claim in the still-fresh annals of NBA Cup lore. Picture this: clutching the hefty 35-pound trophy, basking in glory, and carving their names as the third-ever champions of this burgeoning contest. Tuesday set the pace with the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks bulldozing their way past the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors, locking in their semifinal berths. Now, as Wednesday unfolds, the West’s contenders gear up to write their own chapters in this unfolding drama. Intrigued? You should be—because this tournament, with its win-or-go-home urgency and rising prize pools, is reshaping the NBA’s landscape one stunning upset and highlight reel at a time. LEARN MORE

Welcome to the knockout rounds of the 2025 Emirates NBA Cup, where eight teams — four from each conference — compete in win-or-go-home quarterfinal matchups. The winners advance to the semifinals in Las Vegas, where they’ll have the chance to compete for the right to etch their names into NBA Cup history, for the chance to hoist all 35 pounds of it, and for whatever bragging rights come along with being the third victors of this still-buffering competition.

In Tuesday’s quarterfinal matchups featuring the East side of the bracket, the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks earned their spots in the semis by defeating the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors, respectively. They’ll be joined by the winners of the West side on Wednesday.

Before the back half of our quarterfinal quartet tips off, let’s take a fresh look at the lay of the land in the West as we return to our irregularly scheduled tournament, already in progress:

Where we left off in the West

We detailed that frantic final evening of group-stage play, with three of the four quarterfinal spots still up for grabs. There was drama in Denver, where the Spurs had to roar back from an 18-point third-quarter deficit against the Nuggets to keep their hopes alive.

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Thanks to monster second halves from Devin Vassell (21 of his team-high 35 after intermission) and Julian Champagnie (15 of his 25), San Antonio exploded for 80 second-half points without superstar big man Victor Wembanyama and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, stunning Nikola Jokić and Co. to score a 139-136 win to improve to 3-1 in West Group C, eliminating Denver and Houston to secure their spot in the knockout round.

Things were also tight — somewhat uncharacteristically so! — in Oklahoma City, where the upstart Suns continued their pleasantly surprising strong start to the season by pushing the defending champion Thunder to the limit.

Down by as many as 15, Phoenix charged back in the fourth quarter, getting hot from long distance — Royce O’Neale and Collin Gillespie combined for five of the Suns’ six fourth-quarter triples — and cutting OKC’s lead to a single point multiple times. Time and again, though, the hosts had the answer — typically in the form of letting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander size up his man and go to work.

Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s chosen to celebrate winning nearly everything there was to win last season — the exception, of course, being the NBA Cup! — by coming back even better, poured in 15 of his game-high 37 points in the final seven minutes, capped by a pair of free throws with 4.7 seconds left to finish off a 123-119 win. With the victory, Oklahoma City finished atop West Group A at 4-0 — and, by virtue of their +75 point differential across the four victories, with the No. 1 seed in the conference.

The loss dropped Phoenix to 3-1, but it didn’t knock them out of the competition. Thanks to doing what so few teams have managed this season against OKC — namely, not getting blown out — the Suns wrapped up group play with a +31 point differential, which was large enough to edge out the Memphis Grizzlies (who also went 3-1, but finished +14) for the West’s wild-card spot.

That cemented the conference’s final four, setting up a Thunder-Suns rematch in the 1-vs.-4 game, and a very intriguing matchup between the high-scoring Los Angeles Lakers — the winners of West Group B — and a Spurs team that’s gone an impressive 8-3 since losing superstar center Victor Wembanyama to a left calf strain.

What to know about Suns-Thunder (7:30 p.m. ET, Prime Video)

We should probably start with this: In case you missed it, the Thunder are, like, really good.

Oklahoma City enters the quarterfinals on a 15-game winning streak, and at 23-1 on the season — just the third team in NBA history to open a season with wins in 23 of its first 24 games. The other two: The 1969-70 New York Knicks, who went on to win the NBA championship, and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, who went on to set the all-time single-season record of 73 wins that OKC’s now chasing.

With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein manning the back line, and Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace and all manner of other havoc-wreakers stationed at the point of attack, the Thunder lead the NBA in defensive efficiency to a comical degree, allowing 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions than the second-place Rockets. That gap is the same as the one between No. 2 Houston and No. 21 Chicago.

(Worth noting: Hartenstein will miss the quarterfinal matchup with a right soleus strain that has cost him the last five games. Also worth noting: The Thunder won all five of those games, and have blown opponents out by nearly 21 points-per-100 with him off the floor this season.)

With Gilgeous-Alexander at the controls, Oklahoma City also features a top-five offense, despite All-NBA No. 2 offensive option Jalen Williams missing the first 19 games of the season recovering from offseason wrist surgery. Since Williams’ return — which came, coincidentally, in that group-stage-concluding win over the Suns — he’s averaging 17.8 points in 29 minutes per game with a 32-to-6 assist-to-turnover ratio. And in the minutes when SGA sits — during which the Thunder’s offense had plummeted considerably — they’ve scored like a top-five offense with J-Dub on the ball.

All of which, y’know, would seem to make for pretty tough sledding for the Suns … particularly considering they’ll enter the matchup without leading scorer and assist man Devin Booker, who’s sidelined by a right groin strain. Add in the ongoing absence of Jalen Green, whom Phoenix imported from Houston in the trade that sent Kevin Durant to the Rockets, with a strained right hamstring, and it feels unlikely that Phoenix will have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the defending champs.

And yet: “Unlikely” has kind of been the Suns’ stock in trade this season.

Have to deal with Wembanyama after he’s opened the season tearing everybody apart? No problem: Just tailor a picture-perfect traffic-jam gameplan to disrupt, dislodge and discombobulate him, holding him to a season-low nine points and handing the Spurs their first loss.

Trail by seven late against the Wolves? No problem: Just rip off nine straight in the final 1:19 to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Royce O’Neale brings Phoenix within six.

Jordan Goodwin scores five straight.

COLLIN GILLESPIE WINS IT FOR THE SUNS ‼️

Phoenix rallied late for the win last time vs. Minnesota… what’s in store for tonight?

Suns–Timberwolves | 7:30 PM ET on Peacock pic.twitter.com/ItSeq33I2B

— NBA (@NBA) December 8, 2025

Lose Booker early in the first quarter of a road game against Luka Dončić, LeBron James, Austin Reaves and the Lakers? No problem: Dillon Brooks (whose usage rate has skyrocketed to Jordanian levels sans Booker this season) will just score 23 of his 33 points in the first half … and Gillespie will hit five of his eight 3-pointers in the second to stake the Suns to a blowout win.

It’ll likely take everything the Suns can muster to hang in with the Thunder again: stellar shot-making from Gillespie, O’Neale, Brooks and Grayson Allen; Brooks going goblin mode defensively to short-circuit his Canadian national teammate SGA; generating extra possessions on the offensive glass and by creating turnovers (hey there, Mark Williams, Jordan Goodwin and Ryan Dunn); head coach Jordan Ott coming up with a way to throw some sand into the gears of what’s been an incredibly smooth-running OKC machine.

It’s a lot to expect; the odds of getting it all to go right are astonishingly small. But the Suns have been outperforming expectations and beating the odds all season. Why stop now?

What to know about Spurs-Lakers (10 p.m. ET, Prime Video)

The first time these two teams played this season, the Lakers were missing James and Reaves … so Luka just went ahead and put up 35-9-13 with five steals and a pair of blocks in a come-from-behind win.

Nice to have a bona fide MVP candidate playing at the peak of his powers to fall back on when things aren’t going your way — and a second banana in Reaves who’s making an All-Star leap in his own right (28.4 points, 6.7 assists, 5.5 rebounds per game on 51/37/87 shooting splits) to help command what’s been a damn-near-unstoppable pick-and-roll attack.

The Lakers have been on a roll since getting James back from his early-season sciatica-induced absence, going 6-1 with him in the lineup. He’s helped stabilize non-Luka stints, with L.A. outscoring opponents by 13 points in 82 minutes when LeBron and Reaves take the wheel while Dončić gets a breather, according to PBP Stats. Even while still working his way into playing shape and occasionally looking like an about-to-be-41-year-old in the process — a career-low 28% of his shot attempts have come at the rim, and he’s making them less often than at any point since his rookie season — LeBron has fit productively into the fold for head coach/erstwhile podcast partner JJ Redick.

He’s slotting into a complementary role alongside Dončić and Reaves, posting by far the lowest usage rate of his career (he’s actually fourth on the Lakers, behind Nick Smith Jr.!) and the lowest average time of possession in the 13 seasons for which Second Spectrum publishes tracking data. He’s looking comfortable working off the ball, he has a sparkling 53-to-13 assist-to-turnover ratio, and L.A. has scored like the NBA’s best offense with him on the floor.

And when the Lakers need him to crank it up — like they did in the fourth quarter against the 76ers on Sunday — it looks like he’s still got some gas in the tank:

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There’s been a bit less gas, however, on the defensive end of the court, where the Lakers rank 20th overall in points allowed per possession — and where they’ve been worse with their big three on the floor. It’s a problem that first reared its head after Dončić arrived in California last season …

Lakers entered tonight allowing 129.6 points-per-100 with Luka/LeBron/Reaves all on the floor — NBA-worst-level defense: https://t.co/pwECoJfgTB

Only 75 minutes, small sample size, etc. … but it was that way last season too. Talked about it on THE BIG NUMBER before the season: pic.twitter.com/BDHjciXaXa

— Dan Devine (@YourManDevine) December 2, 2025

… and it’s remained one thus far this season. Lineups featuring Luka, LeBron and Reaves have been outscored by 15 points in 108 minutes, allowing 121.9 points per 100 while struggling to generate turnovers and conceding a ton of 3-pointers. That could be a problem against a Spurs team that has ranked 12th in long-distance attempts and ninth in 3-point makes per game since Wembanyama left the lineup, with Vassell, Champagnie, De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes all shooting better than 38% from beyond the arc in that span.

Fox — who missed the first meeting against the Lakers working his way back from an offseason hamstring injury — has been fantastic, averaging just under 26 points and seven assists per game on .614 true shooting since Wemby’s injury. Rookie Dylan Harper — who missed that first meeting, too — continues to get into the paint seemingly at will, fresh off a 22-point, six-assist performance in Monday’s win over the Pelicans. Castle, who’d been off to a phenomenal start to his sophomore season before going down with a hip injury, returned to the lineup against New Orleans, putting up 18-5-5 in 23 minutes in his return.

The Spurs, obviously, would love to have their 7-foot-infinity top gun back on the floor for this win-or-go-home contest; unfortunately, Wembanyama’s not quite ready to roll yet. Even so: A San Antonio side that now has its full complement of backcourt firepower for the first time all season could pose major problems for a Lakers defense that’s yet to prove it can consistently get stops with its own top guns on the floor.

What comes next?

The winners of the single-elimination quarterfinal games will advance to Las Vegas, where the semifinals will be held on Saturday, Dec. 13. The championship game for the NBA Cup will take place on Tuesday, Dec. 16.

That championship game will be the only one in the entire tournament that won’t also count toward participants’ regular-season record and statistics. For those two teams, it will count as Game 83. The four teams that lose in the quarterfinals will each play one regular-season game against one another, too, with the games coming on Dec. 11, 12, 14 or 15.

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Making the quarterfinals guarantees every player on the participating teams a payout; to the winners, though, go greater spoils, with the tournament champion taking home the biggest bank.

For the inaugural in-season tournament, the prize pool operated in nice round numbers: $50,000 for each player on teams that lose in the quarterfinals; $100,000 for players on teams that lose in the semifinals; $200,000 for players on the team that loses in the final game; and a crisp $500,000 for everyone on the team that hoists the NBA Cup. The math has changed a bit year-over-year, thanks to a passage in the collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and its players union stipulating that those prize payouts rise by a “growth factor” tied to any increase in the basketball-related income (BRI) that the league generates.

BRI has gone up over the past two seasons; thus, so have the payouts:

The NBA Cup is set to return for its third year, featuring increased prize money for all winners.

• Champion: $530,933 (up from $514,971)
• Runner-up: $212,373 (up from $205,988)
• Semifinalist: $106,187 ((up from $102,994)
• Quarterfinalist: $53,093 (up from $51,497)

— Front Office Sports (@FOS) October 31, 2025