NFL Playoffs Nightmare: The Unexpected Threat Lurking That Could End Every Team’s Championship Hopes
Every team in the 2025 NFL playoffs carries its own peculiar baggage — a unique way they’ve stumbled, lost ground, or simply shown the cracks that could shatter their postseason dreams. It’s almost poetic, isn’t it? The very teams that soared high enough to reach the dance all have hidden fissures waiting to be exploited when the spotlight hits brightest. The NFC, loaded with offensive juggernauts and defensive titans—including the reigning champs and multiple 12-win powerhouses—still shakes with vulnerabilities. Whether it’s a quarterback’s baffling inconsistency, a defense leaking yards despite snagging interceptions, or a running game that can’t seem to find its rhythm, each contender has one glaring flaw that could derail their Super Bowl hopes. So, before the confetti flies and the fields ignite, let’s pull back the curtain and spotlight the one chink in every playoff armor, starting with the NFC, before turning our gaze to the AFC’s brewing storms. Ready to dive into the underbelly of this postseason?
All of the 2025 NFL playoff teams have lost in different ways, and each has vulnerabilities that could be exploited in the postseason. We identify those weaknesses.
The NFC boasts some of the heaviest hitters in the NFL.
Not only does the conference include the defending Super Bowl champions, but this year’s playoff field features three teams with at least 12 wins, four of the top-10 scoring offenses and three of the top-10 scoring defenses.
That said, every team is flawed. All seven NFC playoff teams have lost in different ways, and each has vulnerabilities that could be exploited in the postseason.
For some teams, the issues are offensive. For others, they’re defensive. We’re breaking down the one thing that could derail every NFC playoff team before moving on to the AFC.
Jump to a Team
Seattle Seahawks/Chicago Bears/Philadelphia Eagles/Carolina Panthers/Los Angeles Rams/San Francisco 49ers/Green Bay Packers/Denver Broncos/New England Patriots/Jacksonville Jaguars/Pittsburgh Steelers/Houston Texans/Buffalo Bills/Los Angeles Chargers
NFC Weaknesses
1. Seattle Seahawks: Wonky Sam Darnold
The Seahawks are a tale of two offenses. At times they look electric; at others, lethargic. And much of that inconsistency falls on the quarterback.
Darnold’s surface-level numbers look strong. He ranks fourth in completion rate and first in well-thrown rate, but his pickable pass percentage is 22nd among the 34 quarterbacks with at least 200 adjusted attempts (no spikes or throwaways).
That split becomes more pronounced under pressure. Darnold has an NFL-best 84.6% well-thrown rate when pressured, but ranks ninth in completion rate and has thrown 12 of his 18 pickable passes under pressure. That’s the most among quarterbacks with at least 99 pressured drop backs. That’s not a recipe for postseason success.
Darnold ranks third in the NFL with 14 interceptions, just one fewer than his career high as a rookie with the Jets.
2. Chicago Bears: Leaky Secondary
One of the biggest red herrings in the NFL this season is the Bears’ defense.
Chicago leads the league with a plus-22 turnover differential, fueled by an NFL-best 23 interceptions. Yet the unit has surrendered the 11th-most passing yards and the fifth-most passing touchdowns.
The Bears also rank 29th in passing success rate allowed (46.8%), trailing only the Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals – three teams known for porous defenses, none of whom made the playoffs.
Despite the interceptions, none of the Bears’ cornerbacks has a coverage grade above 74.2, and no safety grades higher than 75.2. Eight of the nine defensive backs with at least 60 coverage snaps allow a burn rate above 50%.
Chicago faces the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round, but its inability to stop passing offenses could be costly in a shootout.
3. Philadelphia Eagles: Pedestrian Passing Game
Defense wins championships, but the passing game is still king in the NFL. So far, the Eagles have looked like anything but a defending Super Bowl champion through the air.
Philadelphia ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing yards and passing success rate and has topped 300 passing yards just once this season. The Eagles have been fortunate not to need a potent passing attack to win games. They’re 8-0 when throwing for fewer than 200 yards, but just 3-6 when exceeding that mark.
This isn’t exclusively a Jalen Hurts issue. While his numbers are fairly mediocre (he doesn’t rank better than sixth in completion rate, well-thrown rate or open rate), Hurts hasn’t received much help from his pass catchers. Eagles receivers (including tight ends and running backs) rank 26th in burn rate and 21st in open rate.
Philadelphia doesn’t currently have a reliable offense. The running game has been inconsistent, but the Eagles are 7-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards. When it works, they win.
A team that can shut down the Eagles’ passing attack and score on their defense will beat them.
4. Carolina Panthers: Third-Down Defense
The Panthers allow the second-highest third-down conversion rate in the NFL at 47.1%, trailing only the Cowboys.
That’s largely due to their secondary, which gives up the highest passing success rate on third down, the second-most yards per attempt and the second-highest burn rate.
They also struggle to generate pressure in key moments. Carolina ranks 25th in third-down pressure rate despite ranking sixth in blitz rate.
A poor secondary combined with an ineffective pass rush in critical situations could doom them – especially against the high-powered Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round.
5. Los Angeles Rams: Turnovers
The Rams haven’t shown many glaring issues this season (outside of some special teams miscues), but turnovers have been their undoing. While the team’s 15 turnovers are tied for the fourth fewest in the NFL, all four of their losses have been because of multiple turnovers in a game:
- Week 3 vs. Eagles: One interception, two blocked field goals (one returned for a TD)
- Week 5 vs. 49ers: Two fumbles (Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams)
- Week 13 vs. Panthers: Two interceptions and one fumble from Stafford
- Week 17 vs. Falcons: Three Stafford interceptions
All four losses were by one score, but the mistakes were too costly to overcome.
The Rams are 0-3 in games with multiple turnovers. Even with a high-octane offense and stout defense, they haven’t shown the ability to recover when they give the ball away.
6. San Francisco 49ers: Ineffective Pass Rush
Injuries have taken a toll, but the 49ers lack juice up front. San Francisco ranks last in the NFL with a 3.1% sack rate and sits 26th in pressure rate.
Bryce Huff is the only healthy edge rusher with at least a 20% pressure rate, while Yetur Gross-Matos is the only interior defender above 11.9%.
This showed clearly in the final two games of the regular season. The 49ers beat the Bears in Week 17 thanks to offensive production, but struggled in Week 18 against Seattle when the offense stalled. Across both games, San Francisco posted a 2.5% sack rate – better than only the New York Jets in that span.
The 49ers can be one of the league’s most dangerous teams, but only when their offense is operating at a high level.
7. Green Bay Packers: Poor Run Blocking
We flagged this issue in mid-November when the Packers dropped consecutive games, and it hasn’t improved since.
Green Bay’s offensive line allows a 71.3% run disruption rate, which – despite being middle of the pack – has failed to support an effective ground game. The Packers rank 13th in rushing success rate and tied for 20th in yards per carry.
Josh Jacobs is still dealing with a lingering knee injury, and neither he nor backup Emmanuel Wilson has been effective. Both are averaging fewer than 2.3 yards before contact.
The Packers should be healthier after resting starters in Week 18, but this is a season-long issue they have yet to fix.
AFC Weaknesses
1. Denver Broncos: A Bad Bo Nix Game
Nix has enjoyed a solid sophomore season in Denver. He’s produced strong counting stats – 3,931 passing yards and 25 touchdowns – with a middling 66.3% completion rate. While Nix has shown command of the offense, he’s also benefited from some fortunate outcomes on risky throws.
Nix is second in the NFL with 23 pickable passes, trailing only Caleb Williams (24). While Nix’s 3.93% pickable pass rate is only slightly worse than the league average (3.87%), his completion rate ranks 19th out of 25 quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts.
Part of Denver’s rise has been its success in close games. The Broncos have played in 12 one-score contests and won 10 of them, largely by avoiding turnovers. If that ball security disappears in the playoffs, Denver’s margin for error shrinks dramatically.
2. New England Patriots: Red-Zone Defense
There aren’t many glaring flaws on this Patriots roster, but the red-zone defense stands out.
New England allows the third-highest red-zone touchdown rate (67.5%) despite facing the fewest red-zone trips in the league (40). The biggest issue is pass defense near the goal line, where the Patriots allow the fourth-highest passing success rate, the third-most yards per attempt and the highest average depth of target.
That’s concerning given the AFC playoff field includes four teams ranked in the top half of the league in red-zone attempts: the Jaguars, Bills, Broncos and Chargers.
If New England gets dragged into a shootout, it could struggle to keep up. The silver lining: the defense ranks fourth in points allowed and has surrendered more than 30 points just once all season – a game they lost.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Inability to Pressure the QB
Every strong defense needs a pass rush, and the Jaguars are among the weakest playoff teams in that area.
Jacksonville ranks 25th in pressure rate, 13th out of the 14 playoff teams and just ahead of the 49ers. The Jags have also struggled to finish plays, ranking 29th in sack rate (4.5%) and 27th in total sacks (32).
The issue becomes more pronounced in losses. In their four defeats, Jacksonville’s sack rate drops to 3.8%, with just six total sacks – only three coming against playoff teams.
Jacksonville has benefited from an opportunistic defense, ranking second in the NFL with 31 takeaways. But if those turnovers dry up, the Jaguars could be exposed.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: Overreliance on Short-Yardage Passing
Aaron Rodgers is not the same gunslinger who won four MVPs. In Pittsburgh, he’s leaned heavily on short-yardage throws that rarely generate explosive plays.
The Steelers rank last in average depth of target (6.0 yards), nearly a full yard lower than the Raiders and Cleveland Browns. That lack of downfield aggression shows up in the results, as Pittsburgh ranks 27th in passing success rate.
Rodgers also ranks last in average air yards (6.1), the second-lowest mark since 2016 among quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts.
When you look directly at throws of 10-plus air yards, his completion rate, well-thrown rate and catchable rate all rank in the bottom three among 34 qualifying quarterbacks. His numbers look infinitely better on shorter passes.
Rodgers can operate Arthur Smith’s offense well enough to keep games close. But when Pittsburgh needs explosive plays through the air, he hasn’t been able to deliver.
Getting DK Metcalf back for the wild-card round helps, but it may not be enough against Houston’s defense.
5. Houston Texans: Failure to Establish the Run
The Texans have been elite defensively, but the offense has a glaring weakness – the running game.
Houston ranks third-worst in run success rate (36.7%) and is tied for 27th in rushing yards per carry (3.7). They’re also tied for 23rd in yards before contact (2.5), despite facing stacked boxes just 50% of the time. While the offensive line’s 72.5% run disruption rate plays a role, the larger issue is personnel.
The trio of rookie Woody Marks, veteran Nick Chubb and Jawhar Jordan hasn’t produced a consistent rushing attack. Marks and Chubb average fewer than 4.2 yards per carry, under 2.4 yards before contact and fewer than 1.9 yards after contact. Jordan has flashed, but has just 38 carries.
The Texans went 9-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards and 3-4 when they didn’t. Running the ball matters – especially when it’s a weakness.
6. Buffalo Bills: No Reliable Receivers
Josh Allen can mask plenty of flaws, but he can’t make his receivers separate or catch the ball.
Allen ranks second in well-thrown rate (86.3%) and fifth in catchable throw rate (81.8%), yet his drop rate ranks sixth at 4.27%.
Among the Bills’ receivers with at least 10 targets, none has a burn rate above 66.7%. Only Khalil Shakir has an open rate above 76.5%, and only Tyrell Shavers owns a catch rating above 0.955.
Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid have been more effective, but that likely won’t be enough in the postseason.
Allen is an MVP-caliber quarterback, but he can’t win games by himself.
7. Los Angeles Chargers: Poor Pass Protection
Justin Herbert has been under siege all season. He ranks second in sacks per drop back and seventh in sacks per pressure, though his scrambling ability has helped mask some of the damage.
The offensive line is the primary culprit. The Chargers finished with the regular season with a 52.1% pressure rate allowed, which is the highest (or worst) mark in the NFL.
Without tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, the Chargers have lacked reliable edge protection. Trey Pipkins, Bobby Hart, Austin Deculus and Jamaree Salyer have all allowed pressure on at least 10.7% of snaps. Interior play hasn’t been much better, with Mekhi Becton and Trevor Penning struggling as well. Left guard Zion Johnson has been the lone bright spot.
The Chargers can be dangerous offensively, but not if Herbert is constantly under duress.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Playoffs: The One Thing That Could Derail Every Team in the Field appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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