NFL Week 1 Shocker: Which Underdogs Are Poised to Topple Giants in 2025 Season Opener?

Ever wonder what it feels like to have a crystal ball — or better yet, a supercomputer — peek into the chaotic gridiron battles of Week 1 in the 2025 NFL season? Well, with the Opta supercomputer crunching every stat and spinning the possibilities, we’re diving headfirst into a whirlwind of predictions that might just shake up your fantasy lineup or at least fuel your next sports debate at the water cooler. Sure, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up to chase yet another Super Bowl glory, but hold onto your helmets — the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are lurking with the highest chances to snag the ultimate prize, according to the data bits buzzing beneath the surface. Toss in a cast of wild-card hopefuls and a loaded NFC showdown, and you’ve got a recipe for a season opener packed with suspense, surprise, and maybe some seriously bold call-outs from our algorithmic prophet. Curious to see who’s favored to kick off the season with a win and who’s the dark horse scrabbling for respect? Strap in; the numbers don’t lie — though they might just mess with your heart a bit. LEARN MORE

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing all our predictions for opening week of the 2025 NFL season.

The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.

Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are back as one of the favorites in the AFC, as Patrick Mahomes and company chase their fourth Super Bowl victory in seven seasons. But the supercomputer gives the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens the highest probabilities of winning it all.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers are the other contenders for at least an AFC wild-card spot heading into 2025, per our projected model.

There’s a huge battle for NFC supremacy with the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Washington Commanders, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles rams and Detroit Lions having the best Super Bowl chances.

For all the opening-week matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note that they’re not picks against the spread.

So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.

Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after teams announce who is playing and who isn’t (the following win probabilities were as of Tuesday).

You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.

Thursday Night Football

at Philadelphia Eagles 76.3%, Dallas Cowboys 23.7%

This is the first time Philadelphia and Dallas will face off in Week 1 since 2000 (Eagles won 41-14). A Philly victory will mark its longest win streak against the Cowboys since another three-game streak between 2003 and 2004. It will also be Dallas’ first game since trading star defensive player Micah Parsons to the Packers.

Friday Night

Kansas City Chiefs 57.9%, Los Angeles Chargers 42.1% (in Sao Paulo, Brazil)

The Chiefs have won seven straight games against the Chargers, tied for their second-longest active win streak against any opponent (Commanders, eight). Six of those seven victories came by one possession (including each of the last three).

Sunday’s Schedule

Arizona Cardinals 66.0%, at New Orleans Saints 34.0%

The Cardinals beat the Saints 42-34 in their last meeting (Week 7, 2022), the second time in three matchups Arizona has scored 40 against New Orleans (since Week 15, 2016). It’s just the second time this century Arizona has scored 40 points twice in a three-game span against any opponent (versus Chicago; Week 9, 2009 – Week 2, 2015).

at New England Patriots 57.6%, Las Vegas Raiders 42.4%

The Patriots are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Raiders, but the Raiders have won the last two matchups. The Raiders are looking to win three straight regular-season games versus New England for the first time since a three-game streak from 1989-2002.

Pittsburgh Steelers 55.0%, at New York Jets 45.0%

This will be the first Week 1 matchup in which both starting QBs faced a team that they started for in the previous season since QB starts were first tracked in 1950. The last time any two QBs started in a game against a team they started for in the previous season was Week 7 of the 2021 season (Matthew Stafford’s Rams vs. Jared Goff’s Lions).

at Indianapolis Colts 54.8%, Miami Dolphins 45.2%

The Colts’ 8-2 mark against the Dolphins is their best record over the last 10 games against any opponent. This includes a 16-10 victory at Lucas Oil Stadium last season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 54.7%, at Atlanta Falcons 45.3%

The last four games between the Buccaneers and Falcons have all been decided by six or fewer points, the longest active streak between any two divisional opponents in the NFL. It is the longest such streak in the series history.

at Washington Commanders 70.6%, New York Giants 29.4%

The Giants have 107 wins against the Commanders, tied for the most any team has had against a single opponent all time (Packers over Bears). However, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner Jayden Daniels and Washington won both meetings last season and are looking to win three straight in the series for the first time since a four-game run between 1998 and 2000.

at Jacksonville Jaguars 61.3%, Carolina Panthers 38.7%

The Panthers are 3-1 against the Jaguars in their last four matchups. However, Jacksonville won 26-0 at home in the most recent meeting in December 2023. It was the only shutout recorded
by either team in matchup history.

Cincinnati Bengals 63.0%, at Cleveland Browns 37.0%

The Bengals have won four of their last five matchups against the Browns, with the lone loss coming in Week 1 of 2023. Cincinnati has not trailed in the three matchups since and has outscored Cleveland 48-6 in the first half.

San Francisco 49ers 55.2%, at Seattle Seahawks 44.8%

The 49ers have won five of their last six matchups with the Seahawks, but the Seahawks
won the most recent matchup in Week 11 last season. At 30-22, the Seahawks have the best record of any current NFC West team against the 49ers.

at Denver Broncos 75.7%, Tennessee Titans 24.3%

Tennessee has won four of its last six games against Denver, including a 17-10 victory in Week 10 of 2022. The Broncos are looking to extend their current five-game home winning streak. It’s their longest since an 11-game stretch between 2014 and 2015.

at Los Angeles Rams 61.0%, Houston Texans 39.0%

This is Houston’s first trip to SoFi Stadium, one of two teams yet to play there since it first opened in 2020 (Colts). The Rams have won four of their five all-time matchups with the Texans, including three consecutive wins by 15 or more points.

at Green Bay Packers 58.1%, Detroit Lions 41.9%

The Lions won the division title in 2024, going 6-0 against NFC North opponents for the first time in franchise history. Detroit has won three straight games on the road against the Packers, tied for their second-longest road win streak at Green Bay in franchise history (five, 1950-54).

Sunday Night Football

at Buffalo Bills 52.4%, Baltimore Ravens 47.6%

Since Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were drafted in 2018, the Ravens are 3-1 against the Bills in the regular season, the second-best record against Buffalo by any team in that span (Eagles, 2-0). However, the Bills have won both postseason meetings (2020, 2024).

Monday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings 52.0%, at Chicago Bears 48.0%

The Vikings have won five consecutive road games against the Bears after winning at Soldier Field 30-27 in overtime last season. That is tied for Minnesota’s longest road win streak versus the Bears all time (1996-2000).

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post NFL Predictions: All the Projected Winners for Week 1 of the 2025 Season appeared first on Opta Analyst.