NFL Week 12 Power Rankings: Surprising Climbers and Shocking Falls You Can’t Miss!

Is Week 12 the moment we finally separate the true NFL contenders from the pretenders? After a rollercoaster of a Week 11 — with the Denver Broncos stunning the Chiefs, the Rams bossing the Seahawks, and the Bears staking their claim atop the NFC North — it sure feels that way. But here’s the kicker: instead of just looking at past glory or headline-makers, our power rankings dive deep with the TRACR model, weighing individual talent AND team performance in one sleek package. Think of it as the alchemy that tells us not just who’s winning now, but who’s primed to keep winning. Oh, and just wait ’til you see how offensive and defensive efficiencies play into this drama. So, fancy a peek behind the curtain before Sunday’s kickoff?

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We’re breaking down this weekend’s top NFL teams from No. 1 to 32, along with their TRACR, which incorporates individual talent on a roster and team performance.

Entering Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season, we’re starting to see some separation between the contenders and pretenders.

That’s because Week 11 was a wild one with the Denver Broncos beating the Kansas City Chiefs, the Los Angeles Rams having their way with Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks, and the Chicago Bears taking over sole possession of first place in the NFC North.

The Buffalo Bills kept pace with the New England Patriots in the AFC East behind a historic performance from Josh Allen against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

What does this all mean for Week 12? Our power rankings are based on our TRACR model for this week specifically, so they’re focused on how teams will fare in Week 12 rather than how they’ve performed to date or their long-term Super Bowl win probabilities.

Here are this weekend’s teams from No. 1 to 32, along with their TRACR, which incorporates individual talent on a roster and team performance. We’ve also included each team’s offensive and defensive EVE (efficiency versus expected) ranking.

NFL Power Rankings

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13.83 TRACR)

Expected Record: 13-4
Playoff Probability: 99.7%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 18.0%
Offensive EVE Rank: 15th
Defensive EVE Rank: 8th

The defending champions are not only No. 1 in overall season-long TRACR, but they’re also at the top for Week 12. The Eagles seek their season-high fifth straight win.

Next Three Games: at Cowboys, vs. Bears, at Chargers

2. Detroit Lions (13.43)

Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 72.8%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 6.6%
Offensive EVE Rank: 6th
Defensive EVE Rank: 7th

Jared Goff had completed at least 70.0% of his passes in eight consecutive road starts before Sunday’s visit to Philadelphia. He only completed 37.8% of his attempts on Sunday. That particular streak might be over, but the Lions are still really good.

Next Three Games: vs. Giants, vs. Packers, vs. Cowboys

3. Green Bay Packers (13.40)

Expected Record: 10-6-1
Playoff Probability: 83.2%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 10.9%
Offensive EVE Rank: 10th
Defensive EVE Rank: 3rd

The Packers avoided their third straight loss, but it was a costly victory over the Giants. Josh Jacobs suffered a knee injury and could miss some time for 6-3-1 Green Bay. Jacobs became the second Packer to have consecutive seasons with double-digit rushing TDs after Jim Taylor did so in three straight seasons from 1960-62.

Next Three Games: vs. Vikings, at Lions, vs. Bears

4. New England Patriots (12.99)

Expected Record: 13-4
Playoff Probability: 99.7%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 12.2%
Offensive EVE: 3rd
Defensive EVE: 10th

It’s starting to feel like the Tom Brady era again. The Patriots are 9-2 and own the second-highest probability of winning the Super Bowl, according to the Opta supercomputer.

In 11 starts this season, the @Patriots' Drake Maye has:

2500+ passing yards
250+ rushing yards
20+ TD passes
70.0+ comp pct
.800+ win pct

No other QB in NFL history has put up those numbers over any span of 11 starts in a single regular season. pic.twitter.com/6s2EdZKB1Q

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) November 14, 2025

Next Three Games: at Bengals, vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills

5. Los Angeles Rams (12.18)

Expected Record: 12-5
Playoff Probability: 96.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 7.7%
Offensive EVE: 7th
Defensive EVE: 5th

Matthew Stafford for MVP? He’s building quite the case for himself with the Rams at 8-2. Stafford has 22 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last seven games.

Next Three Games: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Cardinals

6. Denver Broncos (12.07)

Expected Record: 13-4
Playoff Probability: 99.4%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 9.8%
Offensive EVE: 27th
Defensive EVE: 2nd

All nine of the Broncos’ wins have come in games in which they trailed at some point. They trailed the Chiefs 19-16 on Sunday before coming back to win thanks to a Will Lutz field goal as time expired. It is the longest such streak to begin any season in Broncos franchise history.

Next Three Games: BYE, at Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Packers

7. Kansas City Chiefs (11.67)

Expected Record: 9-8
Playoff Probability: 34.9%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 1.4%
Offensive EVE: 9th
Defensive EVE: 20th

The Broncos are the only team to hold Kansas City under 20 points in at least five straight games since Andy Reid took over as Chiefs head coach in 2013. The 22-19 divisional loss forced the supercomputer to drop KC’s playoff probability way down after falling to 5-5. But it’s hard to count Patrick Mahomes and Co. out.

Next Three Games: vs. Colts, at Cowboys, vs. Texans

8. Dallas Cowboys (11.38)

Expected Record: 8-8-1
Playoff Probability: 20.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 1.1%
Offensive EVE: 11th
Defensive EVE: 29th

The Cowboys traded Micah Parsons in the offseason and their defense paid the price. They made a couple of moves since, including adding Quinnen Williams, and looked better on that side of the ball in a 33-16 win over the Raiders. However, a tough stretch is on the horizon.

Next Three Games: vs. Eagles, vs. Chiefs, at Lions

9. Baltimore Ravens (10.88)

Expected Record: 9-8
Playoff Probability: 52.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.4%
Offensive EVE: 5th
Defensive EVE: 19th

Yes, Lamar Jackson is back. However, the team’s defense has forced eight turnovers since the start of its four-game winning streak in Week 8. Baltimore had just three takeaways from Weeks 1-7, tied for the second fewest in the NFL over the span (Jets – one).

Next Three Games: vs. Jets, vs. Bengals, vs. Steelers

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.46)

Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 79.6%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 4.1%
Offensive EVE: 23rd
Defensive EVE: 23rd

The Buccaneers gave the Bills everything they could handle in a 44-32 loss. They’re still a dangerous team, leading the NFC South and having a 68.7% chance of making the playoffs.

Next Three Games: at Rams, vs. Cardinals, vs. Saints

11. Buffalo Bills (10.37)

Expected Record: 11-6
Playoff Probability: 88.6%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 4.1%
Offensive EVE: 2nd
Defensive EVE: 25th

What can Josh Allen do for an encore? We’ll see as the 7-3 Bills have winnable games coming up on the schedule as they try to keep pace with the AFC East-leading Patriots.

Next Three Games: at Texans, at Steelers, vs. Bengals

12. Los Angeles Chargers (10.00)

Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 68.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.4%
Offensive EVE: 13th
Defensive EVE: 9th

The Chargers are hoping to bounce back after they were surprisingly trounced 35-6 at Jacksonville. Justin Herbert left Sunday’s game twice after taking a big hit in the second quarter. The Week 12 bye will come at a good time for the 7-4 Chargers, giving Herbert extra time to recover.

Next Three Games: BYE, vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles, at Chiefs

13. Indianapolis Colts (9.67)

Expected Record: 11-6
Playoff Probability: 91.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 4.4%
Offensive EVE: 1st
Defensive EVE: 13th

There shouldn’t be much drama about whether the Colts make the playoffs. They have the fifth-best playoff odds in the NFL at 88.3% and are still a strong AFC South favorite at 62.5%. An 8-2 start puts them in position to finish the season near the top of the standings.

Next Three Games: at Chiefs, vs. Texans, at Jaguars

14. Chicago Bears (9.35)

Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 62.2%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.5%
Offensive EVE: 12th
Defensive EVE: 30th

Now all alone atop the NFC North, the 7-3 Bears hope to stay hot this weekend. Will an old nemesis get in their way? Aaron Rodgers’ status is uncertain after suffering a slight break of his left wrist last weekend.

Next Three Games: vs. Steelers, at Eagles, at Packers

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (9.33)

Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 64.7%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.9%
Offensive EVE: 22nd
Defensive EVE: 21st

It could be Mason Rudolph at the helm on Sunday when the Steelers visit Soldier Field. Pittsburgh, which has gone 2-3 after a 4-1 start, might also be without starting running back Jaylen Warren.

Next Three Games: at Bears, vs. Bills, at Ravens

16. Carolina Panthers (9.27)

Expected Record: 9-8
Playoff Probability: 40.2%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 1.3%
Offensive EVE: 21st
Defensive EVE: 24th

The Panthers have won five of their last seven games and will get a chance to prove they’re a true contender for an NFC playoff spot when they visit the 49ers on Monday night.

Next Three Games: at 49ers, vs. Rams, BYE at Saints

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (8.96)

Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 56.3%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 1.6%
Offensive EVE: 26th
Defensive EVE: 6th

The Jaguars have been difficult to figure out. They’ve beaten the 49ers, Chiefs and Chargers but struggled to beat the Raiders and lost to the Davis Mills-led Texans.

Next Three Games: at Cardinals, at Titans, vs. Colts

18. Houston Texans (8.94)

Expected Record: 9-8
Playoff Probability: 45.4%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.1%
Offensive EVE: 28th
Defensive EVE: 1st

After an 0-3 start, the Texans have won five of their last seven. They’re going after their third straight win at home against the Bills on Thursday Night Football. But this is a difficult stretch.

Next Three Games: vs. Bills, at Colts, at Chiefs

19. Seattle Seahawks (8.84)

Expected Record: 11-6
Playoff Probability: 72.5%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.4%
Offensive EVE: 4th
Defensive EVE: 4th

Sam Darnold and the Seahawks hope to rebound after falling in their NFC West showdown with the Rams. Darnold threw four interceptions – tying a career high – in the 21-19 road loss and his pickable pass rate is an alarming 7.55% since Week 7.

Next Three Games: at Titans, vs. Vikings, at Falcons

20. San Francisco 49ers (8.82)

Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 71.7%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.1%
Offensive EVE: 14th
Defensive EVE: 11th

With a healthy Run CMC and Kyle Shanahan calling the plays, nobody is ruling out the 49ers. But they’ll have a huge game with wild-card implications on Monday night when they welcome the 6-5 Panthers.

Next Three Games: vs. Panthers, at Browns, BYE, vs. Titans

21. Arizona Cardinals (8.72)

Expected Record: 6-11
Playoff Probability: 0.3%
Super Bowl Win Probability: <0.1%
Offensive EVE: 20th
Defensive EVE: 16th

The Cardinals have dropped seven of eight after a 44-22 loss to the Seahawks and a 41-22 loss to the 49ers. Jacoby Brissett has at least been entertaining, averaging 314.0 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and three picks over his last five games.

Next Three Games: vs. Jaguars, at Buccaneers, vs. Rams

22. Washington Commanders (7.06)

Expected Record: 5-12
Playoff Probability: 0.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 8th
Defensive EVE: 32nd

With their loss to the lowly Dolphins in Madrid in Week 11, the Commanders have now dropped six in a row and are one of the more disappointing teams in the NFL after reaching the NFC championship game a year ago. They’re 3-8 and plummeting.

Next Three Games: BYE, vs. Broncos, at Vikings, at Giants

23. New York Giants (6.92)

Expected Record: 4-13
Playoff Probability: 0.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 17th
Defensive EVE: 27th

Another loss for the 2-9 Giants after they blew yet another late lead. Jameis Winston may be fun to watch, but he can’t save them now.

Next Three Games: at Lions, at Patriots, BYE, vs. Commanders

24. New York Jets (6.76)

Expected Record: 5-12
Playoff Probability: 0.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 25th
Defensive EVE: 14th

The Justin Fields era appears to already be over in New York. He’s been benched and Tyrod Taylor will return under center against the Ravens on Sunday.

Next Three Games: at Ravens, vs. Falcons, vs. Dolphins

25. Atlanta Falcons (6.66)

Expected Record: 6-11
Playoff Probability: 0.9%
Super Bowl Win Probability: <0.1%
Offensive EVE: 18th
Defensive EVE: 22nd

Michael Penix Jr. is on injured reserve with an ACL injury and Drake London will miss time with a knee injury. Kirk Cousins takes over and things could start to unravel very quickly for the 3-8 Falcons.

Next Three Games: at Saints, at Jets, vs. Seahawks

26. Cincinnati Bengals (4.62)

Expected Record: 6-11
Playoff Probability: 0.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 24th
Defensive EVE: 31st

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Bengals after Ja’Marr Chase received a one-game suspension for spitting at or near Jalen Ramsey on Sunday. The frustration seems to be boiling over after three straight losses and seven in their last eight.

Next Three Games: vs. Patriots, at Ravens, at Bills

27. Tennessee Titans (4.31)

Expected Record: 4-13
Playoff Probability: 0.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 31st
Defensive EVE: 26th

The 1-9 Titans have the second-lowest offensive success rate in the league. But the most important thing is whether Cam Ward is making strides. He hasn’t thrown a pick in back-to-back games after throwing one in six straight. Hey, that’s something.

Next Three Games: vs. Seahawks, vs. Jaguars, at Browns

28. Minnesota Vikings (3.82)

Expected Record: 6-11
Playoff Probability: 0.6%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 19th
Defensive EVE: 15th

The biggest question in Minnesota these days isn’t whether the team will make the playoffs but rather what to do about their J.J. McCarthy problem.

Next Three Games: at Packers, at Seahawks, vs. Commanders

29. New Orleans Saints (3.79)

Expected Record: 5-12
Playoff Probability: 0.3%
Super Bowl Win Probability: <0.1%
Offensive EVE: 30th
Defensive EVE: 18th

The Saints are playing out the string with Tyler Shough under center. Is he the long-term answer for the 2-8 team? That’s what they hope to find out.

Next Three Games: vs. Falcons, at Dolphins, at Buccaneers

30. Las Vegas Raiders (3.09)

Expected Record: 4-13
Playoff Probability: 0.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 29th
Defensive EVE: 12th

Pete Carroll has given Geno Smith the dreaded vote of confidence after the team’s fourth straight loss. But at 2-8, they’re in a fight more for the top pick than a playoff spot. This week’s matchup with the Browns looms large in that respect.

Next Three Games: vs. Browns, at Chargers, vs. Broncos

31. Miami Dolphins (2.87)

Expected Record: 6-11
Playoff Probability: 0.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 16th
Defensive EVE: 28th

The Dolphins are 4-7 but still fighting. They’ve won three of four, including wins over an Atlanta team that still had playoff hopes at the time and a 30-13 rout of the Bills in Week 10. They are playing the spoiler role well.

Next Three Games: BYE, vs. Saints, at Jets, at Steelers

32. Cleveland Browns (2.46)

Expected Record: 5-12
Playoff Probability: 0.0%
Super Bowl Win Probability: 0.0%
Offensive EVE: 32nd
Defensive EVE: 17th

Dillon Gabriel was knocked out of Sunday’s 23-16 loss to the Ravens due to a concussion. That paved the way for the much-anticipated debut of rookie Shedeur Sanders, who is set to get his first career start in Week 12. Let’s hope it goes better than last week.

Next Three Games: at Raiders, vs. 49ers, vs. Titans

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The post NFL Power Rankings: How Each Team Rates Heading Into Week 12 appeared first on Opta Analyst.