NHL Power Rankings Shock: Early Surprises That Turned the Season Upside Down

Ah, the NHL season has just kicked off, and here we are again—diving headfirst into the rollercoaster that is The Athletic’s NHL Power Rankings. This time around, your old pals behind the keyboard are embracing a humble approach, because, honestly, after pouring over what felt like a novel-length preview filled with projections, rankings, and playoff odds, one week of puck chasing has already upended our crystal ball. The truth? We’ve been spectacularly off the mark on a bunch of fronts. So buckle up as we break down just how wrong we’ve been and what surprises the ice has thrown our way so far. LEARN MORE

Welcome back to another season of The Athletic’s NHL Power Rankings, brought to you by your two favorite power rankers.

We’re going to spend a lot of time this year talking about how correct we are — you know, the usual — but we thought it might be best to start the year off with some humility.

Before the season started, we dug deep and wrote roughly 100,000 words previewing the season to come. Team projections, player rankings, playoff chances — the works. After just one week of hockey, we’ve seen enough; throw that extensive research in the trash because, boy, are we already wrong.

One week in, here’s all the stuff we’re already extremely wrong about.

1. Colorado Avalanche, 4-0-1

Sean: 2
Dom: 1

WRONG: The Avalanche will have a difficult time replacing Mikko Rantanen.

When Colorado traded away Rantanen it was widely panned as an odd choice, even amidst contract negotiation difficulties. Martin Necas is nice, but Rantanen is Rantanen. And the move sure bit the Avalanche in the first round last year.

When it came time to grade out the Avalanche going into the season, it seemed clear there was still a Rantanen-sized hole behind Nathan MacKinnon. Necas was good, but could he be great?

The answer is absolutely yes. Necas has nine points in five games to lead the team and his chemistry with MacKinnon continues to look electric. There, problem solved. Now to log onto PuckPedia to see how long Necas is signed for …

2. Dallas Stars, 3-1-0

Sean: 1
Dom: 3

WRONG: Roope Hintz is a Tier 4 center.

We didn’t feel great about leaving Hintz out of the upper echelon of first-line centers back in Player Tiers, and he’s not helping matters. Hintz has five points in four games (1G, 4A) and leads all forwards in average Game Score (2.82).

More generally, that’s the sort of thing that makes Dallas so tough to pick against; if Hintz stays remotely close to this level, they’re going to have high-end pieces in a lot of important spots.

3. Carolina Hurricanes, 4-0-0

Sean: 3
Dom: 2

WRONG: Nikolaj Ehlers will bring more offensive oomph.

Things we were correct about: Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis being a Cup-worthy one-two punch. Jarvis has five goals and seven points in his first four games while Aho has six points.

Things we were wrong about: Ehlers being a catalyst for that. Through four games — despite spending nearly all their shifts together — Ehlers has yet to register a single point. Only one other Hurricane has yet to record a point this season and that’s somehow Andrei Svechnikov. Incredible.

4. Washington Capitals, 3-1-0

Sean: 4
Dom: 5

WRONG: Repeating last season’s success isn’t a safe bet.

Dom when the Caps have a 57 percent xG and start the season 3-1-0:

5. Toronto Maple Leafs, 3-2-0

Sean: 5
Dom: 6

WRONG: The Leafs will have a hard time replacing Mitch Marner.

During the season preview, we wondered whether the Leafs could replace Marner’s contributions in the aggregate, mostly concluding that some combination of Matias Maccelli, Nicolas Roy and Dakota Joshua wouldn’t cut it.

What we didn’t consider: William Nylander simply scoring twice as many points. With nine points in five games, Nylander is on pace for 148 points this season. Yep, it’s that easy.

It also helps to have this kid try to fill the void.

Yes, Easton Cowan is a Mitch Marner fan … @Marner93 … (Thanks to the family for the photo) … #Leafs pic.twitter.com/meZBXkJDf4

— Kevin McGran (@kevin_mcgran) June 29, 2023

6. Edmonton Oilers, 2-1-1

Sean: 9
Dom: 4

WRONG: Connor McDavid is the best player in the world.

Just like every offseason, we spent a lot of it talking about how Connor McDavid is the unimpeachable best player in the world. Pftt. Zero goals in four games? An average Game Score that isn’t even on the first page of Hockey Stat Cards? Some best player in the world we’ve got here; he’s certainly no Shayne Gostisbehere.

Can the real McDavid please stand up?

7. Winnipeg Jets, 3-1-0

Sean: 7
Dom: 7

WRONG: Three replacement-level defensemen in the starting lineup will make life really tough on Connor Hellebuyck.

That’s not entirely incorrect; Hellebuyck has been closer to league-average than Hart-caliber thus far. That’ll change at some point in the near future.

Still, the Jets are in fine shape overall thanks to strong play from their best forwards. Mark Scheifele has five points in his first four games, including two goals against the Flyers on Thursday. Kyle Connor is already up to seven points. And of course, Morgan Barron has three goals and a four-game point streak. It’s nice to see Hellebuyck get some early help.

8. Montreal Canadiens, 4-1-0

Sean: 6
Dom: 10

WRONG: Cole Caufield is “just” a scorer.

Caufield is great at the most important part of the game, and that’s always going to count for plenty. Sometimes, though, that can serve as a back-handed compliment — and Caufield is doing his part to change the discourse surrounding him. He’s certainly still scoring, with five goals in his first five games, but he’s doing it on a line with Nick Suzuki that’s providing substantive five-on-five play, as well. If this is the new normal, the Canadiens will be in even better shape than we thought.

9. New Jersey Devils, 3-1-0

Sean: 8
Dom: 9

WRONG: The Devils need a lot more from Dawson Mercer.

Mercer has shown plenty of flashes in the past, but with Jack Hughes out of the lineup last season, he flat-lined. New Jersey needs him to be either a solid third-line center or a contributor on the bottom six, and for now, he’s successfully walked through Door No. 2, putting up four points in four games. That’ll work, especially if Hughes avoids another season-ending injury. Which, for the Devils, might be easier said than done.

10. Vegas Golden Knights, 3-0-2

Sean: 10
Dom: 8

WRONG: Vegas is one of the league’s deepest teams.

After signing Marner, one look at Vegas’ forward group was enough to inspire genuine awe. The Golden Knights looked deep.

Which is what makes the team’s top-heavy start so funny. Here’s the goal breakdown.

Pavel Dorofeyev and Jack Eichel: 11 goals
Everyone else: 8 goals

It should be noted that four of those eight goals came Thursday night against Boston. Looks like Vegas is going to be a two-man show this season.

11. Tampa Bay Lightning, 1-2-1

Sean: 13
Dom: 12

WRONG: Tampa Bay’s top end is unstoppable.

Everyone’s washed! That’s a joke. We will gently note, though, that Andrei Vasilevskiy is at .870 with a negative GSAx and missed most of training camp.

12. Florida Panthers, 3-3-0

Sean: 14
Dom: 11

WRONG: We’re about to find out whether the Panthers get 53-point Bennett or Playoff Bennett with Barkov out.

Turns out there was a secret third option that we didn’t even consider! Calgary Sam Bennett.

If regular-season Bennett is a $6 million player, playoff Bennett is a $10 million player, the Panthers were getting a pretty nice deal when it mattered. The version from the team’s first six games, though? He’s been bad enough — one point in six games, outscored 9-1 (!) at five-on-five — that he might owe the Panthers some money back.

13. Detroit Red Wings, 3-1-0

Sean: 11
Dom: 13

WRONG: General Albert Johansson slander.

Talk to almost any Red Wings fan and they’ll swear by Johansson’s upside. Talk to us before the season started and he was mostly an afterthought, projected to be one of Detroit’s many below-replacement-level defenders. Looks like those Wings fans knew their stuff, as Johansson is off to a hot start, looking strong in the sheltered minutes he struggled in last season. He leads all Detroit defensemen in xG.

14. Minnesota Wild, 2-2-0

Sean: 12
Dom: 14

WRONG: Minnesota won’t get enough offense from its blue line

Brock Faber, for all his gifts, isn’t a dynamic offensive presence, and we thought the learning curve for Zeev Buium would count for something. It apparently does not. Buium has five points in four games and is the trigger man for a power play that, at the start of Thursday’s games, was producing nearly five more goals per 60 than their closest competition.

15. Utah Mammoth, 2-2-0

Sean: 16
Dom: 16

WRONG: Utah’s top layer of talent should be enough to put them in the playoff discussion.

Dylan Guenther is holding up his side of the bargain, with four points in four games and a team-leading average Game Score of 1.41. The Mammoth haven’t gotten much from Clayton Keller or Logan Cooley, though; each only has one point thus far. Keller’s track record and Cooley’s down-the-stretch production as a 20-year-old still count for plenty, but Utah will need a lot more from both if they want to stay in the wild-card race.

16. Vancouver Canucks, 2-2-0

Sean: 15
Dom: 18

WRONG: The hips don’t lie.

In a stunning turn of events, the hips do in fact lie.

All preseason — from his Player Tiers blurb to his wildcard status in Vancouver’s season preview — we worried about Thatcher Demko and his lower body. Well, his lower body looks damn good to start.

Demko entered Thursday’s game with a .945 save percentage and 5.2 goals saved above expected in just two starts. He then earned a big win against a high-octane Stars team. Demko is back.

17. St. Louis Blues, 2-2-0

Sean: 17
Dom: 17

WRONG: Robert Thomas is a borderline franchise player.

We had Thomas in the Franchise Tier before a handful of NHL sources told us to slow our roll. We listened, dropping him down to the All-Star group, and it seems to have been the correct call. He’s got two points in four games and is getting absolutely smoked at five-on-five, with actual and expected goal shares both in the high 30s.

18. New York Rangers, 2-3-1

Sean: 19
Dom: 15

WRONG: The Rangers’ fourth line has limited upside.

A fourth line of Sam Carrick, Adam Edstrom and Matt Rempe appeared to be one of the league’s worst on paper with three guys who couldn’t do much with the puck. Jokes on us because Mike Sullivan has somehow coaxed some real wins at the margin with these three on the ice. Through 50 minutes together, they have a 62 percent xG together. Considering the Rangers’ depth issues over the last few years, that’s a very encouraging start.

19. Boston Bruins, 3-2-0

Sean: 18
Dom: 20

WRONG: No forwards are going to score.

The Bruins, thus far, have been more than “David Pastrnak and a bunch of guys.” Through five games, nine forwards have scored at least once, and five (in addition to Pastrnak) have scored twice.

20. Anaheim Ducks, 2-2-0

Sean: 20
Dom: 19

WRONG: Beckett Sennecke does not exist.

Hit control+F in our Ducks season preview and type the words “Beckett Sennecke” and see what pops up. Nothing? Oh. Whoops! Completely forgetting about the third pick from the 2024 draft happens sometimes, okay!

Truth be told, he wasn’t on our radar in mid-September as someone who could make the jump. Anaheim’s forward group looked fairly full, but with a strong camp he earned his spot. With four points in the four games since, he’s cemented it.

21. Los Angeles Kings, 1-3-1

Sean: 21
Dom: 21

WRONG: Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin will substantially hurt the Kings’ defense.

Friends, if only we knew just how bad it would be.

Our projection: Ceci and Dumoulin would have a combined Net Rating of minus-13.8 this season, one of the worst marks in the league for a bottom pair. Somehow, the duo has upped the ante with a combined minus-4.6 through their first four games. That’s an 82-game pace of minus-94.3.

22. Nashville Predators, 2-1-2

Sean: 22
Dom: 23

WRONG: Juuse Saros is trending in the wrong direction.

After two decidedly meh seasons in a row, Saros is throwing up a .945 save percentage and is comfortably top 10 in GSAx. Now all Nashville needs him to do is keep it up for another 55 games, which is what they got from him when he was at his Vezina-finalist peak.

23. Ottawa Senators, 2-3-0

Sean: 23
Dom: 24

WRONG: Ottawa doesn’t have a good enough third option behind Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle.

Shane Pinto is tied for the league lead in goals with six. Unfortunately for the Senators, they’re going to need him to be a second option for the next 6-8 weeks due to Tkachuk’s thumb injury.

24. Pittsburgh Penguins, 3-2-0

Sean: 24
Dom: 25

WRONG: Evgeni Malkin is not one of the NHL’s top 150 players.

With six points in four games and dominant five-on-five numbers, Malkin is off to a scorching start. His best in years; he looks vintage. While a lot of today’s blurbs are tongue-in-cheek, this one unequivocally isn’t. Snubbing Malkin from this year’s top 150 players is without question the dumbest thing we did before the season started.

But hey, at least it’s not the most egregious top 100 players list Malkin has been left off of during his career.

25. Buffalo Sabres, 1-3-0

Sean: 28
Dom: 22

WRONG: A vague expression of optimism.

It did not take long for a summer of optimistic Sabres’ takes to dissipate after a difficult 0-3-0 start. An emphatic 8-4 win has softened the blow a bit — especially with Zach Benson and his four assists back in the lineup — and the Sabres are missing key pieces on defense. Still, the vibes in Buffalo remain rancid. It doesn’t matter if things look OK on paper if that paper lives in an environment ready to make it crumble.

Sorry for getting your hopes up, Buffalo. At 1-3-0, it’s obviously over.

26. Seattle Kraken, 2-0-2

Sean: 25
Dom: 26

WRONG: Matty Beniers is defense-only.

There weren’t many forwards who had more impact defensively last season than Beniers, and only Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Seth Jarvis started the season with a higher projected Defensive Rating. Beniers’ point production and offensive results, though, had turned into an issue, especially given how much Seattle has riding on his development.

Early returns there have been good; Beniers has three points in his first four games, and the Kraken have been a much better offensive team with him on the ice than off.

27. Philadelphia Flyers, 1-2-1

Sean: 26
Dom: 27

WRONG: Matvei Michkov is ready for take-off.

Sometimes, take-offs get delayed. He scored his first goal on Thursday night, which will help, and he’s talked about an ankle injury that messed with his offseason plans. We’re holding our stock on this one, and we purchased a fair bit.

28. Columbus Blue Jackets, 1-3-0

Sean: 27
Dom: 29

WRONG: The Blue Jackets won’t score on 10.5 percent of their shots at five-on-five again.

Columbus’ current shooting percentage? You better believe it’s exactly 10.5 percent. Checkmate, nerds.

29. New York Islanders, 1-3-0

Sean: 30
Dom: 28

WRONG: Matthew Schaefer is the Islanders’ second-best defenseman.

We sold the kid short. There are Islanders D-men with higher average Game Scores, but the No. 1 pick, all of 18 years old, has already shown signs of being a special player — like, now. Not in two years. His skating is special, and he’s officially the youngest player to start his career with four points in four games.

30. Chicago Blackhawks, 2-2-1

Sean: 29
Dom: 30

WRONG: Connor Bedard won’t have much help.

We probably should’ve accounted a bit more for the presence of Frank Nazar. It’s not that we fully shorted him, either, but six points in four games deserves a shout. He’s got some juice, too, as the Blues found out on Wednesday.

GOAL: Frank Nazar scores, fights, and cellys all in one sequence. Oh my pic.twitter.com/aoE7tQ440u

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) October 16, 2025

31. Calgary Flames, 1-4-0

Sean: 32
Dom: 31

WRONG: Dustin Wolf will make the Flames too competitive.

It’d be nice for the Flames, on some level, if Wolf solidifies his status as a franchise goaltender, but the roster around him isn’t good enough to be dragged — by him or anyone else — any further than the middle of the pack. Thus far, he hasn’t been great (.905 save percentage, nearly three goals saved below expected) and Calgary has only banked two points in his five starts. “Too competitive” has not been an issue.

32. San Jose Sharks, 0-1-2

Sean: 31
Dom: 32

WRONG: Macklin Celebrini is a no-questions-asked superstar.

This summer, we spent a lot of time waxing poetic about Celebrini’s game, figuring a leap to super-stardom was next. He debuted in Tier 3B with a hint of more to come and when it came to finding flaws in his game, we drew a blank. In our eyes, Celebrini was the next big thing — a man who could do no wrong.

One thing that did slip our minds: The dreaded sophomore slump.

Sure Celebrini has three points in three games (all assists), but man is he getting crushed in chances. And not just ‘regular San Jose crushed’ — we’re talking ‘if Bedard was getting hammered this bad there’d be four different think-pieces about his defense’ crushed. Through three games, Celebrini is last on the Sharks with a 23 percent xG rate. Maybe, just maybe, the Blackhawks and Sharks should stop putting Philipp Kurashev next to their franchise star.