NHL Salary Cap Soars: Which Teams Will Make Game-Changing Moves Next?

Navigating the whirlwind of the NHL’s rapidly escalating salary cap feels like trying to predict the next plot twist in a fierce sports saga — thrilling, unpredictable, and riddled with strategic hustle. Recently, Elliotte Friedman dropped some sharp insights on the “32 Thoughts: The Podcast – Welcome to the NHL, Kid” episode, unpacking how this sudden leap in the salary cap isn’t just a number crunch; it’s reshaping the whole choreography of contract talks across the league. The surge isn’t just turning heads—it’s compelling general managers to rethink their playbook when it comes to locking in star players long-term. Agents are eyeing bigger slices of the cap pie, yet teams appear hesitant to let things spiral beyond a certain boundary, painting a fascinating picture of unwritten rules and silent negotiations. Amidst whispers about top-tier players like McDavid potentially setting new benchmarks—perhaps even lower than expected—the landscape feels both charged and cautious, as everyone waits to see who’ll make that bold first move in this evolving chess match. Intrigued? There’s a lot more beneath the surface waiting to be unraveled. LEARN MORE

How quickly the salary cap is rising has complicated teams getting long-term extension contracts done.

Sportsnet: Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts: The Podcast – Welcome to the NHL, Kid episode on how the big jump in the salary cap is impacting how things are playing out with some current contract negotiations.

** NHLRumors.com transcription

“It’s interesting. I, I did get, I got some really interesting feedback just about us talking about the changes in the cap and what it’s meant. And I think everybody wondered what the effect of it would be, and we’re seeing it. The agents are definitely saying, ‘Hey, the cap is higher, percentage of the cap.’

But the one thing that I absolutely believe more than ever is that the GMs are, I don’t like, I don’t think it’s collusion or anything like that. I want to be very careful with that. Like, I don’t believe this is collusion, because I think ultimately these guys will do what they think is best for their teams.

But I definitely think there is a we have to hold the line to some level. Like, you can’t look at what Minnesota offered Kaprizov at eight times 16 and say, they’re colluding. You know, nobody’s throwing that offer out there if there actually was collusion. But I think that they are talking about, how far are we really going to go here? Like, what is the line and everybody moves with it? Like, we talked about (Jack) Eichel. We talked about Kyle Connor. You know, we’ve talked about how this moves everybody along and higher.

And I definitely think, since the Kaprizov thing got turned down, and I do think the Wild to some degree, want to see where this goes over the next little bit. And I’m not convinced they’re going to be upping their offer.

But I definitely think that the managers, informally, have talked about, there has to be somewhere here we hold the line for anybody who basically isn’t named (Connor) McDavid or on that level. Not that anybody really is.

I’ll tell you something else I’m more convinced of Kyle. You know, I think there are some players here thinking about, okay, like McDavid is going to get to a stratosphere where he deserves to be, because under the cap, pay him 20% and nobody’s going to complain about it. I believe, I really believe more than ever, and I’ve said a couple of times, but I’ve, I really believe it more than ever, if McDavid signs in Edmonton, if he does, it’s going to be for a lower number than we all expect.

Like, I think it’s going to surprise people where it could end up. Because I just, I just think he knows that with (Leon) Draisaitl making what he’s making, and (Darnell) Nurse making what he’s making, he can’t go to a new stratosphere.

So, and I will say this, like one manager called me on the weekend and said, ‘Are you sure about that prediction?’ And I said, ‘I’m as certain as I can think I’m right, right, but I can’t say 100%, I’m not in his head.’

And he said, ‘Because if his number comes in lower, maybe that pushes everybody down.’ And he sounded kind of hopeful, right? And then I use my old line about the bald truth, and you know, that’s his situation, and nobody should compare his situation with anyone else’s situation.

Like, I think that if you’re like, if everybody’s thinking here, let’s just say for argument’s sake, for argument’s sake, McDavid comes in under what Minnesota offered Kaprizov, $16 million.”

Bukauskas: “Okay, okay.”

Friedman: “And then, does anyone think that, oh, Connor David just signed three times, $15.5 (million). Do you think Minnesota goes back to Kaprizov and says, ahh, McDavid aigned for 15 five, we’re, we’re dropping your number down. No, I don’t believe that. I don’t believe that happens.

But I, I think that there are some managers hopeful that if McDavid does come in at a lower number than people are expecting, that could help push some of these things downward. We’ll see. It’s gonna be, we’ve talked about this a lot, we’re all figuring out our way here together.”

Bukauskas: “It’s like everyone’s just looking from the team side …”

Friedman: “For someone to go first.”

Bukauskas: “and a bit of friction to be created. Just to slow, because if you look over the cap era, there’s been number of times where you’re like, that’s a market resetting deal, right?

Friedman: “Yup.”

Bukauskas: “But the thing is, with where we’re headed over the next two, three years, the market resets could be happening at a rate that we just haven’t seen before.”

Fridman: “Right.”

Bukauskas: “Seems like that’s, that’s the fear of snowball gets rolling too quick downhill for the teams and managers to keep things as much in check as they can. And now who knows where it goes from there. It’s interesting.”

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