NHL Shockwave: Aleksander Barkov’s Playoff Fate Hangs in the Balance Amid LTIR Salary Cap Drama

The Florida Panthers are staring down a steep hill as they chase a rare three-peat Stanley Cup victory—only this time the terrain is trickier. With major players like Matthew Tkachuk sidelined and now Aleksander Barkov sidelined with a serious injury, the Panthers’ path is anything but smooth. Yet unlike previous seasons, this year they—and every other NHL squad—must navigate a fresh set of rules that radically change how injured players on LTIR can impact the roster and salary cap. In years past, teams like Tampa Bay and Chicago exploited LTIR loopholes to juggle stars back for the playoffs while loading their lineups with reinforcements. That dynamic just changed. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement, ratified before the 2025 draft, slams the door on those advantages with a playoff salary cap that forces general managers, including Florida’s Bill Zito, into a delicate chess match. Barkov’s recovery timeline stretches into the playoffs’ final stretches, prompting tough decisions on whether to bank on a late comeback or focus on next season’s campaign. Meanwhile, salary cap gymnastics—including managing regular-season versus season-ending LTIR designations—add layers of complexity to what might otherwise be a straightforward injury setback. The ripple effects could redefine how the Panthers patch together their championship window, and make GMs across the league rethink their strategies as injuries and cap limits collide.

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New Playoff Salary Cap and LTIR Rules Factoring Into Panthers Handling of Barkov Injury

The Florida Panthers are facing an uphill climb as they look to three-peat as Stanley Cup Champions. Florida is dealing with multiple injuries to several key players, including Matthew Tkachuk and now Aleksander Barkov; however, unlike last season, the Panthers are playing under new rules, just like every other team in the league.

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In previous seasons, the Panthers could place both players on LTIR and bring them back in the playoffs, while also adding to their roster. We had seen teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, Vegas Golden Knights, and Tampa Bay Lightning exploit this loophole in the CBA. But don’t let anyone fool you, during the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Lightning weren’t the only ones over the cap.

While it was alarming at $18 million, a majority of the 16 teams that made the playoffs were operating over the salary cap and using LTIR. In fact, over the last couple of seasons, due to a flat salary cap, nearly half of the NHL teams have been operating under LTIR.

However, because of the NHL CBA that was ratified before the 2025 NHL Draft, that loophole will close as there will be a playoff salary cap. According to PuckPedia.com, there are two types of regular-season LTIR. Season-Ending LTIR. If a player goes on season-ending LTIR, he is ineligible to return for the playoffs. With regular-season LTIR, a team can exceed the salary cap by up $3.8 million, but its roster has to be cap-compliant by the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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So it makes things tricky when it comes to what the Florida Panthers will do with Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. Tkachuk is easy; they will place him on regular-season LTIR, knowing he will return sometime in January. But Barkov is the trickier of the two.

As George Richards of Florida Hockey Now said on Sirius XM NHL Network Radio on Monday, there is a significant recapture if the team thinks Barkov will return and play again.

“We don’t know a timeline and we’re just going to have to wait and see. I would think that in a couple of months, they might have a better grasp on that. Because, listen, there are financial ramifications here for the Panthers, if, if they think Sasha Barkov is going to be able to come back that changes how they look at the LTIR, you know, because you’re looking at a $10 million recapture versus a $4 million correction in the salary cap. So we’ll have to wait and see on that, but it’s a huge blow to Florida.”

And with the timeline given for Barkov’s recovery of seven to nine months, that puts him around the Conference Final to Stanley Cup Final. So this is a delicate balancing act for GM Bill Zito. Do they hold him out the whole year and let him get ready for next season, but if things are ahead of schedule, do they say You know what, let’s roll the dice here, and by some chance we get back to a Conference Final or a Stanley Cup Final, Barkov is ready to go.

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As Dave Pagnotta of the Fourth Period noted on Sirius XM NHL Network Radio on Monday, this is going to be a balancing act not only for Zito but for all GMs around the NHL.

“If Barkov is ready to go, and, you look at, let’s say, even if it’s seven months, he’s still going to need time. He’s not just going to miraculously, just hit the ice. He’s going to need time to get back into game shape. So you’re probably looking at Conference Final realistically, in terms of a timeline, and then at that point,  if you are anticipating a playoff return, then okay, well, are we going to utilize? They won’t be able to utilize the full cap hit. So you’ve got to base it on the average from last season, just over $3.8 million. That gets factored in in terms of the players that they can add. And it becomes a lot more complicated.”

Remember, if the Florida Panthers place Aleksander Barkov and his $10 million on Season-Ending LTIR, that means he is ineligible to return in the regular season or playoffs. But if Barkov could return this season, the Panthers can exceed the salary cap by up to $3.8 million.

And to start this season, the Panthers will be without Matthew Tkachuk and Tomas Nosek. Going back to PuckPedia.com, which noted Florida can be cap-compliant by putting Tkachuk on regular LTIR ($3.8 million relief) and Nosek on LTIR ($775,000 relief).

It will be interesting to see how the Florida Panthers handle the Aleksander Barkov injury in terms of LTIR and the salary cap.

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