NL MVP Showdown Heats Up: Can Ohtani’s Power or Schwarber’s Surge Seal the Title?

With nearly 70% of the Major League Baseball season already behind us, the All-Star festivities and the frenzied trade deadline have officially come and gone . What was once a grueling 162-game grind now shifts gears into an all-out dash toward October glory . August isn’t just another month on the calendar — it’s when the dust really starts to settle, and the major award races either tighten up or blow wide open. Picture frontrunners distancing themselves from the pack while underdogs creep out of the shadows, ready to shake things up. Thinking back, August has often been the decisive battleground: remember Mike Trout’s scorching .349 batting average in August 2016, a crucial stretch that catapulted him to his second AL MVP trophy? Or Giancarlo Stanton’s staggering 18 home runs and 1.332 OPS in August 2017, locking up his NL MVP belt? And let’s not forget the more recent surge by Padres’ center fielder Jackson Merrill, whose sizzling August ignited a legitimate NL Rookie of the Year showdown against Pirates’ ace Paul Skenes—though Skenes would ultimately claim the crown, Merrill’s blistering month earned him a close second place. This year, several coveted awards remain up for grabs, but the NL MVP race promises the juiciest drama. Shohei Ohtani, baseball’s one-of-a-kind phenomenon, has been the top dog all season, boasting a league-leading .987 OPS and an eye-popping 39 homers. Oh, and did I mention he’s pitching like a maestro too? Despite recovering from elbow surgery, Ohtani’s 2.37 ERA in eight starts speaks volumes. Yet, the narrative isn’t quite settled . Former Chicago Cub Pete Crow-Armstrong’s tiring stint and the Cubs’ struggles erased his MVP buzz, only to have Kyle Schwarber, now with the Phillies, push himself front and center in the conversation. Schwarber’s been a steady force all season, ranking second in the NL with a .965 OPS and topping the charts with 40 homers . Even during the Phillies’ offensive slumps, especially when Bryce Harper was sidelined with injury, Schwarber stood tall, carrying the lineup on his shoulders. It’s been his career-best season so far—career highs in hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, and even stolen bases. Now, the million-dollar question is this: when Ohtani is firing on all cylinders — batting masterfully and pitching like an ace — can anyone realistically wrest away the MVP spotlight short of a historic season? The Dodgers might not be firing on all cylinders despite Ohtani’s individual brilliance, whereas Schwarber and the Phillies have surged to the top of the NL East, transforming from wild-card contenders to division leaders. With Schwarber anchoring the middle of their lineup, could he engineer an upset? Meanwhile, the AL MVP race is shaping up to be just as electrifying with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh both in the fray, though Judge’s recent stint on the injured list and Raleigh’s cooling off might just set the stage for a photo finish when September rolls around. Toss in the NL Cy Young Award, where Paul Skenes is staking a claim to run away with the title after improving on last season’s sterling 1.96 ERA, sitting at 1.94 ERA in 24 starts this year — and the plot thickens . Though the Phillies’ pitchers Christopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler could mount a charge, Skenes’ dominance and Pittsburgh’s willingness to keep him on the mound make him the clear favorite to snatch the honor. This late-season sprint is shaping up to be a rollercoaster, my friend — one where every at-bat, every pitch, and every moment inches the players closer to immortality. LEARN MORE

Nearly 70% of the MLB calendar has passed as we’ve moved past the All-Star Game and the trade deadline. The 162-game marathon is now a two-month sprint to October. In that sprint to the postseason, there are storylines that really begin to take shape in August. They often include races for major awards as frontrunners pull away from the pack or dark horses emerge from the shadows.

Historically, August is pivotal in determining those awards. In 2016, Angels superstar Mike Trout hit .349 in August, the highest average of any month that season, leading to his second of three AL MVP awards. During his 2017 NL MVP campaign, Giancarlo Stanton carried a 1.332 OPS and mashed 18 home runs, placing him firmly in the driver’s seat on his way to an MVP award.

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Most recently, a strong August put Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill into a legitimate race with Pirates ace Paul Skenes for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. While Skenes ultimately won the award, Merrill’s hot month helped propel him to a Top-2 finish in balloting.

This year, there are multiple awards that will come down to the wire. The most compelling might be the race for NL MVP. Shohei Ohtani, the game’s best player, has again been the front-runner for NL MVP, all season. The Dodgers’ unicorn has an NL-leading .987 OPS entering Friday with 39 homers. He’s also returned to the mound in dominant fashion with a 2.37 ERA in eight starts, although in short stints as he builds up from elbow surgery.

The Cubs’ electric Pete Crow-Armstrong was once a strong candidate for NL MVP, but he and Chicago’s recent struggles have quieted that talk. But former Cub and current Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has pushed himself into the conversation with Ohtani for NL MVP.

Schwarber has been consistent and productive for Philadelphia throughout this season, ranking second in the NL with a .965 OPS entering Friday and leading the NL with 40 homers. And even during times when the Phillies’ offense struggled, Schwarber carried them, including when superstar Bryce Harper was out of the lineup for three weeks with a wrist injury.

The Phillies’ DH is having his best season of his career and is on pace to set career-highs in nearly every offensive category including hits, home runs, RBI, OPS and stolen bases.

One of the biggest questions about the NL MVP race: In any season when Ohtani is healthy and he’s hitting at an elite level and pitching, is there anything a player can do outside of a historic season that would wrestle MVP awards away from him?

While Ohtani has swung the bat well and is turning into an ace again on the mound, the Dodgers haven’t played their best baseball despite their unicorn’s individual success. But Schwarber and the Phillies have taken off, and after being in the NL wild-card race, they are now firmly entrenched atop the NL East. And with Schwarber’s impact in the middle of their lineup, is that enough to overtake Ohtani?

While the AL MVP race is also compelling with front-runners Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh still leading the pack, the combination of Judge’s recent stint on the IL and Raleigh’s cold stretch since the All-Star break is likely leading to a photo finish in September.

The NL Cy Young Award is starting to look like Skenes’ to lose. The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year has pitched to even better levels than he did last season when he had a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts. This season, Skenes has a 1.94 ERA in 24 starts. The Phillies’ duo of Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler could find a way to upend Skenes, but it will be tough with the Pirates’ right-hander dominating at this level. And with Pittsburgh having no plans to shut him down, he’ll have the body of work to go along with the production.

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