Notre Dame vs. Miami: Which Side Holds the Hidden Betting Advantage?

So, here we are—Miami Hurricanes at No. 10, a name that once evoked controversy, now much tamer, yet I can’t help but dub Sunday’s clash with No. 6 Notre Dame the “Catholics vs. Convicts” showdown—because, well, it just sounds electrifying. But here’s a kicker: why are the Hurricanes still hanging at No. 10 in preseason polls after losing their star QB Cam Ward, top rusher, and a slew of wideouts? Replacing talent with Carson Beck from Georgia, who, frankly, looked like a shadow of his former Heisman-hopeful self, raises eyebrows. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s rookie QB C.J. Carr is set to manage the game with more promise surrounding him—Jeremiyah Love’s back, the receiving corps shines, and their defense looks downright formidable against Miami’s questionable stops. Mario Cristobal’s record against ranked teams? Let’s just say it’s not exactly comforting if you’re a Hurricanes fan. And with Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman boasting a sterling record in these big duels, the betting lines make plenty of sense—yet sometimes, the underdog still has its day, doesn’t it? Buckle up; this one’s shaping up to be a wild ride. LEARN MORE

While the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes‘ reputation is much cleaner than in the late ’80s, I’m still calling their meeting Sunday with the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Catholics vs. Convicts, because it sounds cool. Even though these are both top-10 programs entering this season, the betting market gives Notre Dame a sizable edge, considering they are road favorites in Miami. 

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I don’t understand why the Hurricanes are ranked 10th in the preseason polls. They lost their superstar quarterback, Cam Ward, to the NFL, as well as their leading rusher and six of their leading wide receivers from last year’s team. Miami replaced Ward with QB Carson Beck in the transfer portal, but that’s a bigger downgrade than casual college football fans recognize. 

Miami’s offense is ranked first in ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. That’s assuming a lot from Beck, who couldn’t hack it in the nation’s best program, Georgia. He was the favorite to win the Heisman last year and to be the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Instead, Beck took a step back last year and took his talents to South Beach. 

Meanwhile, the Catholics plan for freshman QB C.J. Carr to be a game-manager, whereas the Convicts are relying on Beck to play up to his one-year, $4 million NIL contract. Plus, Carr has more talent around him. Notre Dame’s leading rusher from last season, RB Jeremiyah Love, returns, and its three starting wide receivers have an above-average grade at Pro Football Focus. 

Also, there’s no reason to think Miami’s defense will be any good. The Hurricanes have just two 4-star recruits starting on that side of the ball. They ranked 69th (nice) in points per game allowed last season, 45th in 2023, and 68th in 2022. Former defensive coordinator Al Golden went to the NFL this offseason, but Notre Dame still has a ton of defensive talent. 

Miami’s fourth-year head coach, Mario Cristobal, sucks against quality competition. His teams are 1-12 straight up (SU) vs. ranked teams with an -18.2 scoring margin and 6-7 against the spread (ATS). Miami is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. ranked teams under Cristobal. The U didn’t play a ranked team last season and still couldn’t make the ACC title game. 

The Fighting Irish, on the other hand, are 14-6 SU vs. top-25 teams and 15-4-1 ATS with a +7.6 spread differential under fourth-year head coach Marcus Freeman. Look, sometimes you have to make peace with losing bets. So, if Beck turns out to be worth the money and Cristobal does something he rarely does, I’ll let the Convicts steal my money. 

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