Ohio State’s Championship Quest: Can They Survive a Ruthless Schedule with No Room for Error?

This team has the talent to go back-to-back. But if they want to do it, they will need to play their best football when the lights are brightest and the runway is shortest.

Texas is waiting in Week 1. Penn State comes in November. The finale is in Ann Arbor. In between are trips to Washington, Illinois and Wisconsin. And just days after facing Penn State, the selection committee will release its first rankings. Every result will be magnified.Even with a loss to Texas, a perfect finish with wins over Penn State and Michigan would give the Buckeyes a strong case. But two losses before Selection Day would make their playoff path much more complicated.But they cannot afford another late collapse. The playoff field is deeper. The schedule is tougher. And the margin for error is paper thin.The Buckeyes enter the 2025 season with +550 odds to win it all and a 70.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. But they are staring down one of the toughest and most unforgiving schedules in the country.

November will define the season

Ohio State has the talent. It has coaching. It just won the national title. But none of that guarantees a return trip to the College Football Playoff.Ohio State’s coming off a championship high, decked out with talent and coaching that could make any contender tremble. But here’s the kicker — that shiny trophy doesn’t grant them a free pass back to the College Football Playoff. Nope. The real adversary? The schedule. It’s a brutal gauntlet that’ll test their mettle from kickoff through the final whistle. Sure, the odds are in their favor — +550 to win it all, a 70.6% shot at the playoffs per ESPN Analytics — but those numbers don’t tell the full story. Starting with a Texas clash right outta the gate, then facing big November tests against Penn State and Michigan, not to mention trips to Washington, Illinois, and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes are staring down more than a few heart-stopping moments. Every outcome could sway their playoff destiny as the selection committee’s eyes close in just days after the Penn State matchup. If Ohio State’s aiming to do the unthinkable — back-to-back titles — they’ll have to navigate this treacherous timeline flawlessly, showing up when it counts most and leaving no doubt. LEARN MORE

The road brings more questions than answers

Style points matter. A strong November, especially with ranked wins over Penn State and Michigan, would keep Ohio State firmly in the conversation. Even at 11–2, the Buckeyes could make a case as the top two-loss team in the country.Ohio State travels to Washington in late September, then heads to Illinois and Wisconsin in back-to-back weeks during October. None of those games are easy, and all of them could become resume-altering if the Buckeyes are not careful.

What the committee will pay attention to

If Ohio State wants a first-round bye, it might need to win every game in November. The Buckeyes start the month with a critical matchup against Penn State and will have a bye to prepare. That game could decide the Big Ten championship slot and determine which team earns top-four consideration.The biggest threat to a repeat is not the quarterback or the pressure. It is the calendar.If Ohio State loses to an unranked opponent, the committee will remember it. That was the case last year when the Buckeyes dropped four spots after a loss to Michigan. The same thing could happen again if the team stumbles against a fringe contender.