Oklahoma’s Unexpected Rise: Could They Dominate the College Football Playoff This Year?

Oklahoma’s rollercoaster ride over the past four years has left more than a few fans scratching their heads — but this season, the Sooners look like they’ve found a steadier groove. Sure, they might not be knocking on the door as one of college football’s premier powerhouses just yet, but after a rocky stretch that saw coaching shakeups and tough seasons, the crimson and cream are proving they’re no longer just nostalgic contenders. That eye-opening win over Michigan signaled a team regaining its swagger, and with a shrewd transfer portal haul and a sharper game plan, Oklahoma could very well be a dark horse in the playoff picture. So the question isn’t just if they’re back — it’s how soon they’ll surprise us all again. LEARN MORE

The Sooners are a lot better than they were last fall. But even if they aren’t quite back among the college football powerhouses, they’re on much sturdier footing than in recent years. 

No team in college football has had a more disorienting past four years than Oklahoma.

Arguably the sport’s most consistent winning bet this side of Ohio State, the Sooners suffered a logistical and ego blow when Lincoln Riley fled for USC after the 2021 season.

Riley had presided over a quiet decline toward the end of his tenure, and Brent Venables made his own mistakes in guiding the program to two 6-7 seasons in his first three years, sandwiched around an upbeat 10-3 record in 2023. Venables entered this season on a clear hot seat, with a glitzy transfer portal class and new general manager to help him. 

So far, so good heading into No. 13 Oklahoma’s first road game at Temple on Saturday.

The Sooners beat up on Michigan in primetime in Week 2, with a 24-13 victory that was roughly as close as that score indicated. Michigan was nominally in it until almost the end, but the game never felt up for grabs. Oklahoma looked like Oklahoma used to look in these marquee spots: in control. 

As a result, the Sooners have moved up to seventh in Opta Analyst’s TRACR rankings, ahead of Texas, Notre Dame and Ole Miss in the top 10.

Sure, they’re a lot better than the team that went 6-7 last fall. How much better? One-sixth of the way through Venables’ fourth season, I think the smart view of the Sooners is to be skeptical that they’re a championship threat, but very optimistic that they’ll be a part of the playoff picture all year.

Let’s talk about why, even if Oklahoma isn’t quite back, it’s on much sturdier footing than it was the past few years. 

So Far, John Mateer Hasn’t Even Thrown the Ball That Well 

Mateer was one of the most celebrated transfer portal additions of the offseason. But the former Washington State QB has had a mixed first couple of games in crimson.

First, the bad: 

• He’s been inaccurate. In fact, few quarterbacks have been less accurate. I thought Mateer looked awkward as he attempted a series of roving, sidearmed throws against the Wolverines, several of which wound up well off target. Among Power Four quarterbacks with at least 30 throws through two weeks, Mateer has the 12th-worst well-thrown percentage at 73.5%.

• He’s put the ball in harm’s way. Mateer has thrown four pickable passes (tied for the seventh most among Power Four QBs), as charted by Opta data, making for an early pickable pass rate of a well-worse-than-average 5.9% (FBS average is 3.4%). Mateer did indeed get picked once apiece against both Michigan and Illinois State.

Just two games, and Mateer will probably be better. His well-thrown rate at Wazzu last year was more than a full percentage point (4.8%) ahead of where it is so far at Oklahoma. 

But Oklahoma Has Put Mateer In a Great Spot So Far 

• Mateer has had an easy job throwing the ball. Sooner offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle came over from Wazzu along with his quarterback, and Arbuckle has been in his bag so far. Armed with a healthy room of wide receivers (something OU didn’t have last year), the Sooners have schemed their way to a bunch of open pass catchers. Mateer’s open-target percentage is 91.2, about 10% higher than the Power Four average. Open-target rate can correspond with a bunch of checkdowns, but Mateer’s 4.4% checkdown rate is well below the 6.5% Power Four average, and his 9.4 air yards per throw are nearly a yard deeper than average. In short, OU receivers aren’t just open, they’re open downfield. There’s a substantial difference. 

• Mateer hasn’t been pressured much. Largely, that’s because he gets the ball out right away. His 2.2 seconds to release the ball are sixth-fewest among Power Four passers. 

Mateer hasn’t been a pinpoint passer, but he’s taken only two sacks (one against Western Illinois, one against Michigan) and managed nearly 9 yards per drop back. He was also an effective designed runner against Michigan, totaling a workmanlike 19 carries for 74 yards.

Some of these were very valuable yards, though, like the three Mateer got on a 4th-and-1 in the first quarter against Michigan. 

The Defense Looks Like a Typical Brent Venables Outfit 

Michigan five-star freshman Bryce Underwood looked like he’d never played an FBS game before. And, well, he hadn’t. But the Sooners tortured Underwood in inducing a 9-of-24 passing performance in which Underwood also contributed nothing as a runner.

The hallmark of Venables’ defenses is that pressure comes from everywhere, all at once, in ways that are hard for quarterbacks to predict. Last year, Tulane’s Darian Mensah turned in the worst game of his true freshman season against Venables’ bunch. 

Through two games – one of which was against at least an average Big Ten team – the Sooners have allowed the second-lowest success rate (20.6%) of any team in the Power Four.

They’ve done that while allowing an above-average 5.9% explosive play rate. That’s even with the best player on the defense, edge rusher R Mason Thomas, not yet making much of a dent and the Sooners so far generating just a 13.8% pressure rate.

That un-Venables-like figure will surely go up. 

The Offense Still Presents a Couple of Questions, Though

There are two big ones on my mind. 

Mateer will be more accurate as the season goes on, but will his mistakes keep Oklahoma from winning big games? He’ll always flirt with interceptions, as evidenced by a 4.8% pickable pass rate with Washington State last year. (The FBS average for QBs with 200 or more attempts was 3.8%.) He probably won’t throw one pick per week, as he has to start this season, but Mateer’s value proposition is not that he takes care of the football. He had a stretch at Wazzu of six interceptions in five games, with at least one every week. Wazzu won five of them anyway, but that’s probably not a repeatable trick against a complete gauntlet of an SEC schedule. 

Will the running game develop? Mateer will contribute in this area, but Oklahoma’s running game won’t reach its potential if Cal transfer Jaydn Ott doesn’t get it going. Ott was one of the most tantalizing portal pickups of the offseason, nearly as critical as Mateer himself. Ott was one of the best backs in the country in 2023 before losing a season to an injury that he said was mismanaged at Cal in 2024. But Ott is apparently not fully healthy this year, either, as he barely played in Week 1 and was a non-factor against Michigan. The Sooners have a revamped offensive line, and one reason to believe in the offense was that a star, veteran back like Ott would give that line some margin for error. 

Oklahoma ranks seventh in the FBS in offensive TRACR entering Week 3, which is a massive move from 46th in our preseason rankings after a strong showing against a normally imposing Michigan defense. And the Sooners are also 12th in defensive TRACR, though most ranking or projection systems like the defense more than the offense. So it’s a good start. Oklahoma will have to be championship-worthy on both sides of the ball to emerge from a brutal SEC slate. 

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