Packers’ Offensive Collapse: Is Their Identity Crisis Costing More Than Just Wins?
So, what’s going on with the Green Bay Packers this season? Once the darlings of the NFC North, the Packers have now slipped to third place, leaving fans scratching their heads and wondering if their offense is caught in some kind of endless glitch. Despite a defense that’s stout enough to make you think the offense should just get out of the way, Green Bay’s offensive unit is stumbling over its own feet week after week. Jordan Love’s candid admission after a stinging 10-7 loss to the Eagles — “You feel like as an offense you’re letting the defense down” — isn’t just one player’s frustration; it feels like the whole saga of the Packers’ offensive identity crisis.
It’s been a rollercoaster ride — early wins sparked hope, but sputtering performances and injuries have now piled up, especially with the offense’s once electric running game wilting and the passing game’s key players sidelined. With their playoff chances still decent but fading and division title hopes dimming, the question looms large: Can coach Matt LaFleur find the magic formula to steady the ship? Or is this mayhem here to stay?
Dive in as we unravel the tangled mess behind Green Bay’s offensive woes — from a crumbling offensive line to the uphill battle of injuries and inconsistent playmaking. It’s a fascinating, if frustrating, puzzle with no easy fixes in sight.
Nothing is working the way it should for the Green Bay offense, and it’s creating inconsistent mayhem every NFL week. Is there a way to fix it? We take a closer look.
It’s officially time to be concerned about the Green Bay Packers.
Once considered the favorites in the conference, they’ve fallen into third place in the NFC North at 5-3-1 following consecutive losses. The Packers scored a combined 20 points while their defense held the opponent under 17 points and 300 total yards in both contests.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love said it best following the team’s 10-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football: “You feel like as an offense you’re letting the defense down.”
This is a problem that’s been building all season, though.
After two convincing early wins, the offense sputtered in a 13-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns and a 40-40 tie with the Dallas Cowboys cooled early Super Bowl talk. Three wins followed, but the unit has since collapsed again in losses to the Carolina Panthers and Eagles.
That’s left the Packers with a good, albeit declining, playoff probability. According to the Opta supercomputer, Green Bay has a 82.3% chance of making the playoffs. However, they’re no longer predicted to win the NFC North with just a 39.0% chance of being division champions.
As Love alluded to, the defense isn’t the issue here. Green Bay ranks seventh in points allowed, fifth in yards allowed, and is in the top-third of the NFL in defending the run and the pass.
The offense, despite the eighth-best overall success rate, just can’t break through at a consistent pace. Love’s completion rate is fourth among quarterbacks, but his secondary metrics – well-thrown rate, open target rate and catchable-ball rate – are all outside the league’s top 10.
The run game, which was electric in 2024, has flopped this season. Josh Jacobs ranks eighth in carries but 20th in yards and 26th in yards per carry. And now the pass catchers are dwindling with the loss of tight end Tucker Kraft for the year and uncertainty around Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs.
This is a team that is suffering from an identity crisis on offense. Nothing is working the way it should, and it’s creating inconsistent mayhem every week.
Is there a way to fix it? That’ll fall onto head coach Matt LaFleur.
Bad Offensive Line Getting Worse
A big part of the problem is pretty obvious.
Green Bay’s offensive line ranked 26th and 25th in our pass-blocking and run-blocking team ratings, respectively, heading into Week 11. But now that center Elgton Jenkins is on injured reserve with a leg fracture, those ratings drop to 28th in pass blocking and 30th in run blocking.
Not good.
The biggest culprits are at guard, where the trio of Jordan Morgan, Sean Rhyan and Aaron Banks simply isn’t getting it done. Morgan’s 25.4% run disruption allowed rate is second-worst among the 64 guards with at least 100 run-blocking snaps.
Banks is 15th at 19.0% and Rhyan is 31st at 16.8%. The NFL average for guards is 15.8%.
That trickles down to the rest of the offense, especially the running game.
Inability to Establish the Run
The Packers had a top-five running game in 2024. They averaged 4.7 yards per carry and had a run success rate of 40.1%. This year, Green Bay averages 3.8 yards per carry with a run success rate of 37.2% – both rank in the bottom half of the league.
Green Bay isn’t getting any push at the line of scrimmage. The unit allows a run disruption rate of 77.4%, which is tied for third-worst in the league. This is all despite seeing a heavy box on just 41.0% of rushes, second-least behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This has led to extremely low efficiency numbers for Jacobs despite his 608 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. His 3.06 yards per carry when facing a run disruption is 28th among the 35 running backs with at least 80 carries, while his 3.75 yards per carry and 2.00 yards before contact both rank 29th among that group.
The combination of a bad offensive line and poor evasive metrics is a recipe for disaster in the run game. Jacobs’ numbers are around the same as Tony Pollard and Alvin Kamara, two downtrodden running backs on bad teams.
The Packers have been at their worst in these areas early in games. Jacobs averages just 3.11 yards per carry in the first quarter, compared to 3.94 over the next three quarters.
So when the Packers aren’t able to get their ground game going, it makes passing the ball even tougher.
Lack of Talent in the Passing Game
Love’s 55.0% completion rate on throws of at least 10 air yards is 10th among the 32 quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. He also ranks 10th in catchable-ball rate.
But consistency is the biggest issue for the Packers.
Love is all over the place throughout the game. His metrics, broken down by quarter, paint the picture of an erratic quarterback who goes through several peaks and valleys.
This is a continued trickled-down effect of the poor offensive line and running game. Love is expected to do more with less.
On top of it all, Green Bay has cycled through injuries at nearly every skill position. Receivers Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Golden have all missed time, and Doubs is dealing with a chest injury.
That leaves Love to throw to backups like Malik Heath, rookie Savion Williams and receiver/cornerback Bo Melton, who’ve combined for 299 snaps this season.
Kraft suffered a season-ending ACL injury in Week 9. His absence was felt this past week and the offensive issues were even more noticeable without him.
Kraft is a rare breed of tight end. He’s good at catching the ball, running with the ball and blocking in the run game. That’s the full package for the position.
At the time of his injury, Kraft led the team with 489 yards and six touchdowns on 32 receptions. He also averaged an impressive 10.8 yards after the catch per reception and converted 22 first downs.
Those numbers are hard to replicate when dealing with a player who was arguably the Packers’ best run blocker, too. Kraft ranked 16th among the 94 qualified tight ends in run-blocking rating, and fifth among the 35 tight ends with at least 50 route opportunities.
This isn’t something that will be solvable for Green Bay. The trade deadline is over and there aren’t any great options in free agency. The Packers will need to rely on who they have at the moment and hope for the best.
LaFleur’s Problem to Solve
What LaFleur does over the next eight weeks will set the course for the rest of the season.
The Packers still have a very good chance to make the playoffs, but they have five NFC North matches left on the docket (two versus the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings and a Week 1 rematch against the Detroit Lions).
The defense will be fine. Jeff Hafley’s unit has allowed the fifth-lowest success rate and had the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on the ropes for almost the entire Week 10 game. The defensive front, led by superstar Micah Parsons, is sound and the secondary is great.
The solution to the Packers’ woes will need to come on offense. Fixing the run game must come first, particularly early in games, to set up the passing game.
LaFleur needs to try different rushing schemes for Jacobs, given the offensive line’s inability to prevent defenders from infiltrating the backfield. Jacobs carries the ball mostly out of duo formations (next to the quarterback), inside zone or outside zone runs.
Inside zone runs haven’t worked for Jacobs, but duo runs have. The Packers should lean into that more, as well as try out more sweeps, which Jacobs has rushed four times with a 5.0 yards per carry and 3.0 yards per carry on run disruptions.
The margin for error is incredibly thin. Especially since turnovers ruined two quality drives in Week 10 and will continue to do so as the season goes on.
But if the LaFleur and Packers can find their identity once more on offense, the once-promising contenders should be able to get back on track.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Fallen Favorites: Why the Packers Are Suffering From an Identity Crisis on Offense appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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