Patrick Mahomes Surges Past Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield in Shocking NFL MVP Race Shakeup After Week 6

Is the 2025-26 NFL MVP race already shaping up to be the most thrilling—and unpredictable—contest we’ve seen in recent seasons? With Patrick Mahomes nudging ahead as the betting favorite, Josh Allen’s reign wavering after a stumble against the Falcons, and Baker Mayfield surging from behind with jaw-dropping clutch performances, this three-horse race has fantasy fans and bettors on edge. Mayfield’s meteoric rise, despite a battered Tampa Bay roster, poses a compelling question: Can grit and guts outshine sheer star power this season? As Week 11’s primetime clash looms, the MVP leaderboard could flip on its head faster than you can say “game-winning drive.” Ready to dive into the arguments, stats, and intrigue of this unfolding saga? Click below and get the full scoop. LEARN MORE

There’s a three-horse race to win the 2025-26 NFL MVP through the first third of the regular season, according to the sportsbooks. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite (+200) at FanDuel after six weeks, ahead of Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+300) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (+350).

Allen, the reigning MVP, fell behind Mahomes after Buffalo’s 24-14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 6. Or, depending on how you look at it, Mahomes passed Allen when Kansas City beat the Detroit Lions 30-17 on Sunday Night Football this past weekend. I choose the latter.

Mahomes threw four touchdowns in a 37-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens three weeks ago, and went off on the Lions Sunday, with four total touchdowns (three passing and one rushing). Allen, on the other hand, looked mortal in Atlanta Monday, completing 15-of-26 passes for 180 yards with two touchdowns, two interceptions, and an 18.7 QBR.

But, charging up the rear is Baker, who leads the NFL in fourth-quarter comebacks (four) and game-winning drives (four). Mayfield has 12 touchdowns and just one interception with career-highs in QB Rating (108.5) and QBR (75.4). Tampa Bay sits atop the NFC South with a 5-1 record and a victory over the Falcons already.

The strongest part of Baker’s MVP case is that he is playing his best despite the Buccaneers having a banged-up offensive line, not having future Hall of Fame WR Mike Evans for the last three games, Pro Bowl slot WR Chris Godwin missing four games, and elite second-year RB Bucky Irving being hurt for the last two contests.

As you might be able to tell, Mayfield would be my pick if I were forced to make a bet on the NFL MVP race. He will have a chance to make a bigger impression with MVP voters this season, too, with three more primetime games: Detroit in Week 7, the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12, and Atlanta in Week 15.

Mayfield’s path to winning the MVP is continuing his stellar play, especially in these marquee matchups, and Tampa finishing as a one- or two-seed in the NFC. Mahomes’s case suffers because his stats this season won’t be as good as they were in his two previous MVP-winning seasons.

For Allen, there might be a little “voter fatigue,” and it’s tough to win consecutive MVPs unless you’re that much better than your competition, and no one is playing that much better than Baker right now. Mayfield faces the Bills and Allen in Week 11, as well. If the Bucs pull off that upset, Baker is jumping ahead of Allen.

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