Phillies vs. Mets Showdown: Unexpected Twists Threaten to Change the Game

Ever wonder why the biggest favorites in baseball sometimes sting bettors the worst? Take today’s Rockies-Astros game—the Astros are a -340 favorite, yet I’d advise steering clear unless you’ve got a real edge. It’s tempting, sure, but history and experience tell me that those heavy odds can be a trap. Now, shifting gears to the Phillies and Mets clash at 7:10 ET—this one’s got the kind of intrigue that justifies a fresh deep dive. The Phillies, despite losing Zack Wheeler to a blood clot—a devastating blow—still boast solid pitching and sit strong in the NL East standings. Meanwhile, the Mets are clawing back from one of their roughest slumps this season, trying to hold steady for that wild card slot. With Jesus Luzardo on the mound for Philly and Sean Manaea taking the hill for New York, the game promises strategic firefights more than fireworks. Can the Mets overcome their recent struggles, or will the Phillies leverage their edge and cool under pressure? Let’s unpack the nuances that make this game far more compelling than any simple favorites’ odds suggest. LEARN MORE.

Phillies vs. Mets, 7:10 ET

I want to start this article with something a bit different – talking about a game that will happen today, and I won’t be writing about in this article. There is a game between the Rockies and Astros today, where Houston is a -340 favorite. Please do not play them directly or as a part of a parlay. I’ve seen too many times where these big favorites end up losing. Today is fairly justifiable as the Astros have arguably their best pitcher going, but still, please do not take the bait unless you truly find an edge. A lot of people end up just throwing the game on their card because they see the big number and think that it is a lock as a result. Let’s get to the actual game as the Phillies take on the Mets in a game that is much closer on the odds and has big implications for the NL East.

The Phillies are 21 games above .500 for the season, but the team recently took a big blow. Due to a blood clot, their best starter, and a potential Cy Young winner, Zack Wheeler has been shut down for the season. The Phillies have more pitching than you would probably think, but losing their best starter for the remainder of the season is definitely going to hurt in the playoffs. They did get back Aaron Nola who has been part of the 1-2 punch in the playoffs for the Phillies. We will see where they go from here, but one good thing is that they are currently in second place in the playoff ranking. That would give them a bye for the first round and give them a chance to get a little healthier even if Wheeler won’t come back. A guy that they may need to lean on is Jesus Luzardo, who takes the mound today. Luzardo is 12-6 for the season and carries a 4.10 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He is top-10 in strikeouts this season with 170 for the year. Luzardo is running into shape here with five straight quality starts. He faced the Mets once in June with 6.2 shutout innings with three hits and seven strikeouts. Overall, the Mets are 35-for-139 against Luzardo which is decent, but Pete Alonso has been bad against him with just two hits in 25 at-bats and 12 strikeouts.

The Mets had one of the worst stretches in baseball in the second half. In fact, it might have been one of the worst stretches in baseball this season. Starting on July 28th and going until August 15th, the team went 2-14. They’ve gained some of that ground that they lost since then, going 6-3 overall, but the team is still searching for a chance to win the division. Even with the struggle, they still have a 2.5 game lead on the Reds for the final spot in the Wild Card. The lucky thing for them is that the Cardinals and Diamondbacks are fairly distant behind them, so they are really only holding off one team. Today they send out Sean Manaea to the hill. Manaea is a guy that we’ve bet on or against quite a bit recently. For the season, he is 1-2 for the year with a 5.15 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP. The WHIP is actually pretty impressive. August has been a tough month for him. He has allowed 17 earned runs in 19.1 innings. He has allowed at least four earned runs in each of the past four games. He hasn’t faced the Phillies this season, but they are hitting .282 against him overall. 

This is an important game for both teams, but it isn’t like the teams will decide the division winner today. The Phillies do have an edge in today’s game. I’m not a big fan of Manaea, and he has pitched really poorly. It isn’t like he is pitching better at home than on the road either. I’m going to back the Phillies in this one, and I am going to also back Pete Alonso to go under 0.5 hits at +145. 

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