Rams vs. Panthers Wild-Card Showdown: Can Underdogs Defy the Odds in NFL Playoffs?

The Los Angeles Rams, boasting a strong 12-5 record, head down to Carolina this Saturday to take on the 8-9 Panthers in a do-or-die wild-card showdown—kicking off a weekend loaded with NFL playoff drama. This clash isn’t just any game—it’s a chance for the Rams to avenge a narrow Week 13 loss, when Bryce Young’s trio of touchdown throws and Matthew Stafford’s costly interceptions handed Carolina a 31-28 victory. Despite the Panthers’ underwhelming record, the Rams enter as a historic double-digit road favorite, raising the stakes on whether they’ll march forward into the divisional round or stumble again on the Panthers’ turf. Curious about how the oddsmakers see this tussle and what our savvy NFL handicappers are betting on? Let’s dive deep and unravel the story behind these intense matchups. LEARN MORE

The 12-5 Los Angeles Rams travel to Carolina to face the 8-9 Panthers on Saturday in the first of six NFL wild-card games this weekend. This is a rematch from a Week 13 game in which Carolina defeated Los Angeles 31-28 thanks to three touchdown passes from Bryce Young and two interceptions from Matthew Stafford.

The Rams are a historic double-digit road favorite in this game. Will they advance to the divisional round again this year or lose again to the Panthers in Carolina?

Ben Fawkes gathers quotes from oddsmakers for all the games and our team of NFL handicappers provides their favorite wagers on the game.

Other playoff games

Packers-Bears | Bills-Jags | 49ers-Eagles | Chargers-Patriots | Texans-Steelers

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

What oddsmakers are saying: “This is our No. 1 power-rated team with the Rams. We opened -10, now sitting at -10.5. That was the ultimate NFC South way to get into the playoffs for Carolina. Seeing more Rams action here, and I don’t anticipate that to change. We’re seeing a little bit of money on Panthers money line, with people wanted to take a shot at a longer number. Closer to game-day I think we’ll get some sharp action on Panthers +10.5.” — Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook

Best bets

Matt Jacob: Back on Nov. 30, the Rams took a 9-2 record and a six-game winning streak to Carolina. They departed with a 9-3 record and a one-game losing streak after falling 31-28 as a 10-point road favorite.

Now Los Angeles returns to the scene of one of the season’s biggest upsets, this time for a win-or-go-home playoff game — and this time as a 10.5-point road favorite.

That price may seem a bit steep to some. After all, beginning with the Week 13 loss in Carolina, the Rams split their final six regular-season games (including losing three of four on the road).

Here’s the counterargument: The Panthers didn’t capitalize on the upset of L.A., dropping three of their final four games, finishing 8-9 and needing Atlanta to hold off New Orleans to claim the putrid NFC South due to a tiebreaker.

Over the final four games, Carolina’s offense put up just 16 points per game; conversely, MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford and the Rams averaged 35.1 PPG over their final seven contests. In fact, Los Angeles tallied at least 28 points in nine of its final 11 games.

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With wide receiver Davante Adams set to return after missing the final three regular-season games with a hamstring injury, the Rams’ explosive offense will be operating at full capacity. Yes, soggy weather is in the forecast for Saturday, but I don’t expect it to impact Los Angeles’ offense at all.

If anything, wet conditions are more likely to pose a problem for Carolina’s plodding offense. Look no further than last week in Tampa Bay, where a first-half downpour made a mess of the field and the Panthers produced just two touchdowns (the first of which was set up by a turnover deep in Buccaneers territory).

Keep this in mind, too: Of the Rams’ 12 victories, eight were by two touchdowns or more (including four on the road). Meanwhile, Carolina had five double-digit losses (including three at home).

Bet: Rams -10 (-110)

Matt Russell: We caught a +500 anytime touchdown at The Window last week with Tommy Tremble, on the premise that he got a promotion within the construct of the Panthers offense because of the Week 16 injury to tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. Whether it’s the three games Sanders missed earlier in the season, after he went out against the Seahawks, or last week, Tremble’s snaps shoot up into the 70% range.

In five games without Sanders, Tremble’s approached or surpassed 40 yards in three of them. Even in the rain last week, the veteran was targeted four times in a mostly one-score game. So, even if it’s going to be soggy again, Tremble should get enough looks to get over this number.

Bet: Tommy Tremble over 15.5 receiving yards

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Ed Feng: The Rams have been the best team in the NFL this season.

Based on data from the current season, my model rates them 8.6 points better than NFL average. To favor the Rams by 10.5 on the road, you have to make Carolina about 4.4 worse than NFL average. Carolina started the season about that badly, but have performed better than expected in making the playoffs, even with a 8-9 record. The defense has been close to NFL average at 16th in my adjusted passing success rate. The secondary is respectable, and rookie second-round pick Nic Scourton has 8.0 sacks.

All my metrics outside of the preseason have Carolina about 2 points worse than the NFL average. My primary prediction has the Rams by 5.7 points. I kind of hate it, but I think the right side is Carolina +10.5.

Lean: Carolina +10.5