Reds Defy the Odds: Can They Ignite a Stunning Postseason Comeback?

Ever find yourself caught between the whirlwind of football frenzy and the lingering crack of the baseball bat? That’s exactly where I’ve been these past few days—mostly glued to the gridiron, riding a wave of wins but missing those insane baseball hot streaks that used to define my autumns. As the Reds face off against the Cardinals tonight at 7:45 ET, the question lingers: can Cincinnati seize this crucial moment to push themselves out of what feels like a “stepping-stone” season and into the playoffs? Trailing just two games behind the Mets for the final National League Wild Card spot, the Reds are all in, leaning hard on the arm of Andrew Abbott who’s been a revelation this year. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, clinging more to hope than likely, send Michael McGreevy to the mound, who’s struggled mightily at home. With the stakes high and the postseason fate hanging by a thread, can the Reds ignite a last-minute surge, or will the Cardinals’ resilience throw a wrench in their plans? Buckle up—this one’s shaping up to be a showdown worth the late night. LEARN MORE

Reds vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

I have taken a few days off of baseball because of the football games going on lately, and I have no regrets because I’ve been crushing the football season so far. Unfortunately, I never got to one of those insane hot streaks that I’ve had in previous years, but that’s okay. It hasn’t been a disaster of a season or anything. There is still time to make noise in the playoffs and in this last week and a half of the regular season. We have a couple of teams squaring off today, looking to extend their season as the Reds play the Cardinals. 

The Reds have what I would consider a bit of a stepping-stone year. Last season, Cincinnati ended the season 77-85. They are almost certainly going to get above that number this season. Coming into tonight’s game, they are 75-75 for the year. They are just two games behind the Mets for the final spot in the National League Wild Card. If they can catch up to the Mets and leapfrog the Diamondbacks as well, they have a chance to make the playoffs. Obviously, they will need some help, but winning say eight or nine of their last 12 games could potentially put them in. That can start tonight as Andrew Abbott takes the hill. Abbott has been a big reason for the Reds success this year. He is currently 9-6 with a 2.79 ERA (good for ninth best in the league), and a 1.13 WHIP, which places him 19th in the league. He is coming off of one of his best games of the season, going eight innings and allowing just a solo homer to the Padres. His ERA is about a half-run higher on the road than at home, but that isn’t acceptable. This will be his fourth start against the Cardinals this season. He has allowed three earned runs over 16 innings against them this year.

The Cardinals are technically still alive, but I think it would be substantially harder for St. Louis to make the playoffs than Cincinnati. They are currently four games back and would likely need to get on an insane run in order to make the playoffs. I think their best bet is to finish the year as a .500 club, but even that seems a bit unlikely. This is another down year for St. Louis, which, as a Cubs fan, is something I celebrate, but as a baseball fan, it just feels strange. I’m not sure they’ve given up for the season, but this is also probably a time they should spend evaluating talent for next year. One guy they might be looking at is today’s starter, Michael McGreevy. McGreevy is 6-3 for the season with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He has been substantially worse at home than on the road, with an ERA over six for the year. He has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his eight home starts. He did face the Reds once this season, on the road, and allowed just one earned run in six innings.

I’m not sure what the reason is that McGreevy struggles in St. Louis, but the numbers show it isn’t a fluke; he is doing it frequently. Abbott is clearly the better pitcher, and even though both teams need to win the game, I think it is more important for the Reds, so they will be pulling out all the stops. I’ll take the Reds to win this one tonight.

 For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024