"Revamping Strategies: Inside the High-Stakes Gamble of the 2025 NBA Playoffs"

Hey there, sports betting enthusiasts! If you’ve ever wondered if the thrill of the 2025 NBA Playoffs can turn even the most astute of sports analysts into unapologetic gamblers, then buckle up. The initial two days of my betting have been, let’s say, less than stellar – a disheartening 0-4 record followed by a painfully middling 1-3 on Sunday. And if it weren’t for the saving grace of Justin Thomas clutching the 2025 RBC Heritage, I’d be out on the streets shaking a cup for change. (Sort of kidding, sort of… not).

Now, let’s dive into the mess below the surface – what’s the deal with Duren’s odds against New York in Game 2? Despite some sparkling efficiency stats, his offensive role just doesn’t command the court time he might deserve. Is it the Knicks’ defense? Is it his lack of usage? Or something else? And let’s not forget, the Denver Nuggets – despite opening as strong favorites – have seen their odds fade faster than last season’s fashion trends. Can they stabilize their odds, or will the Clippers keep hammering away at them?

And herein lies the million-dollar question: In a season of change, with betting lines shifting like a high-stakes game of musical chairs, how does one find value where others don’t? Can we beat the system, or are we all just pawns in the grand casino that is the NBA Playoffs? Grab your strategies, mishaps, and insights as we navigate through this unpredictable season.

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Through the first two days, my 2025 NBA Playoffs betting has been atrocious. I followed up an 0-4 performance Saturday in the first round of the NBA playoffs with a 1-3 effort Sunday. Thank god Justin Thomas won the 2025 RBC Heritage for me Sunday, or I’d be panhandling and selling bodily fluids to pay May’s rent. (Just kidding, kind of). 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

Duren has been extremely efficient vs. New York this season, but just doesn’t have the usage to go Over his points prop for Game 2. He shot 75.0% from the field and had a 143 offensive rating in four games against the Knicks this season, while averaging 11.3 points. 

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But, Duren has no 3-point attempts this season and had the second-lowest usage rate (9.9%) among the nine Pistons who played in Game 1. His average usage rate during the regular season was 16.4%. Essentially, Duren isn’t a priority in Detroit’s offense and that won’t change Monday. 

Lastly, anytime New York C Mitchell Robinson is on the floor, Duren is screwed because he scores off of lobs and putbacks. Robinson is one of the best defensive and rebounding bigs in the NBA, and he missed the four Pistons-Knicks meetings in the regular season.  

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After opening up as -136 favorites at FanDuel, Denver has been steamed down to even money at the time of writing. The same thing happened with the series odds before Game 1 Saturday. The Nuggets opened up as -155 favorites at BetMGM and the Clippers closed as -125 pre-series favorites. 

Yet, as someone with a +1.1 closing line value (CLV) and a -7.7% return on investment across nearly 300 NBA bets this season, I can confidently say “CLV is overrated bullsh*t”. Also, Denver was down 15 points and stole Game 1, so the market thinks the better team lost, and the public is hammering the Clippers. 

Granted, that’s a fair reaction to Game 1’s result. The Nuggets had no business winning that game. Especially considering the Clippers got 32 points, 6 rebounds, and 11 assists from James Harden, 21 points and 13 rebounds from C Ivica Zubac, and 20 points on 60.0% shooting by Kawhi Leonard. Denver took LAC’s best punch, losing the first quarter 35-27. 

Then, the Nuggets out-scored the Clippers in the next three quarters and overtime. Plus, Denver won three of the “four factors”. The Clippers shot better than the Nuggets, which is atypical for a road team. Denver will get a better shooting performance from PG Jamal Murray and forward Michael Porter Jr. and take a 2-0 series lead to Los Angeles for Game 3. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.