Royals Poised for Surprise Upset Against Rays: What’s Behind Their Unexpected Edge?

Ever have those days where the universe just seems to conspire against your bets? Yep, me too — yesterday was a brutal 1-2 skid, and honestly, not what I had penciled in. You’d think when the heat’s off, the smart move’s to chill out and tighten the ship. But nah, I doubled down — three games, full send. Spoiler: it didn’t pan out. So here I am, back at the blueprint, staring down a Rays vs. Royals showdown that’s got me scratching my head for all the right reasons.

The Rays? They’re cruising a solid 10 games above .500—again. I swear, I bring up their mojo every time, but it’s hard not to marvel at this squad that wrings out wins from scraps. No deep pockets, no superstar splash buys, just pure grit and savvy moves. Shane Baz is toeing the rubber for them, a guy whose road stats tell a different story than his home struggles. Royals bats seem to have his number—small sample size, sure, but that .385 average? Ouch.

Then there’s Kansas City, a team with a legacy of flashes of greatness but no real steady shine lately, under .500 and dragging like they’re carrying the weight of unmet expectations. Michael Lorenzen is their ace today, a pitcher with numbers that scream “figure it out” and a track record of keeping Rays hitters off balance.

Here’s the kicker: playing it safe by siding with the favorite’s a fool’s game over time. The odds make backing the Royals an intriguing puzzle piece, plus money and all—a value play that whispers, “Why not?” Plus I’m eyeballing that under 10.5 run line like it’s the secret sauce here.

So, what’s it gonna be—trust the gleaming Rays or snatch some value on the underdog Royals? Let’s dive in and see where the angles really lie.

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Rays vs. Royals, 2:10 ET

A 1-2 day was not what I was looking to try and have happen yesterday. I know that when you’re running hot you want to get more bets in, and when you’re running cold, you should tighten up a bit. I have not been running hot and still decided it would be a good idea to play three games. The results were not what I was looking for. We will see what happens today as I am heading back to the drawing board with this one between the Rays and Royals.

The Rays are 10 games above .500. I feel like I mention this in every article about the Rays, but it certainly bears repeating. They are the one franchise that I feel like gets more out of their roster than any in the league. We expect the Dodgers to be successful because they have big names and acquire anything that they need to make their roster better. The Rays do not have deep pockets. The team is consistently getting rid of their top talent before they pay for them, and they still find ways to win games. Top to bottom, this has to be one of the most successful franchises with their resources in baseball history. Today they send out Shane Baz for the club. Baz is 7-3 with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. While he hasn’t been great at home this season, he has done pretty well on the road, going 35.1 innings over six starts, and throwing to a 3.57 ERA. He only has one road start this year where he has allowed more than three earned runs. Royals hitters do have a lot of success in limited experience though, hitting .385 against him in 26 at-bats.

The Royals are another team that doesn’t have a ton or resources, and you could argue that over the past 20 years, they have been pretty successful. The problem is that just because they have had some success, it hasn’t been consistent at all. They are four games under .500 right now after coming into the season with the expectation that they would be one of the best teams in the American League Central. There is still time to turn it around, but they are going to need to get their offense and pitching staff both to improve – no small feat. Michael Lorenzen is taking the rock for them today. He enters the contest with a 4-7 record, a 4.81 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP. Lorenzen has also been better at home this campaign, but he has only five home starts compared to 10 on the road, so it is a bit small of a sample size. Rays hitters haven’t been great against him, hitting just six for 33 over his career.

If you only pick games for the favorite, you’re probably not going to make money long term. If I picked the Rays and they lose, I lose 1.3 units. If I take the Royals and they lose, I lose only 1 unit. I’m not advocating to only take dogs, either. However, in a game that seems to give a better edge and value to the Royals today, that’s the way I’m going. They are plus money, which makes it better to me. I also think the under 10.5 is a good look.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024