Seahawks’ Bold Gamble on Sam Darnold: Will He Finally Prove Them Right?

Sam Darnold’s journey through the NFL has been a wild rollercoaster, and now the Seattle Seahawks have decided to roll the dice big time. After a breakout season with the Vikings in 2024, Darnold inked a hefty three-year, $100.5 million deal to lead a Seahawks squad hungry to flip the script. But here’s the kicker — can he keep the magic alive, or are the Seahawks signing up for another season of “what if”? The stats paint a picture full of promise and pitfalls: top-five in passing yards and touchdowns, yet also one of the highest “pickable pass” rates. And with Seattle’s shaky pass protection looming, the question is not just if Darnold can repeat his success, but if he can do it under pressure. It’s a chess match of numbers and nerves, and the stakes? Playoff dreams hanging in the balance. Ready to dive deep into this QB saga? LEARN MORE.

Quarterback Sam Darnold was considered one of the biggest prizes of NFL free agency this offseason. He’s trying to repeat a breakout season following a mediocre start to his career. The numbers indicate there’s both good and bad for the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seattle Seahawks are banking on the majority of quarterback Sam Darnold’s 2024 season to be representative of what they’re receiving as opposed to the disastrous ending to his breakout campaign.

This after the NFC West team reached agreement with Darnold on Monday on a reported three-year, $100.5 million free agent contract, including $55 million in guaranteed money.

The question is, will the payoff come on the field with Darnold, whom CBS Sports ranked as the best available quarterback this offseason in a group that also included Aaron Rogers, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson?

In turning to Darnold, who was a first-time Pro Bowl selection in his only season with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, the Seahawks have replaced three-year starter Geno Smith, who’s been traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. Darnold, who turns 28 in June, joins his fifth different franchise as he heads into his eighth NFL season.

The Seahawks went 10-7, but missed the playoffs last season. Our game predictions model, which assigns a point value for each team corresponding to its current depth chart, favors Smith with the Seahawks by one point more than with Darnold at QB.

Last season, Darnold was league average in EVE in expected pass situations, one of our most valuable metrics for QB evaluation, while Smith was 1.5 yards better. Darnold was league average despite throwing behind a top-10 pass protection unit in the league. The Seahawks are currently projected for the league’s seventh-worst pass pro unit next season, so it’s a tougher situation for a quarterback who was in the much-more advantageous spot in 2024.

Make no mistake, there’s also plenty of good behind Darnold’s big season. He ranked fifth in the league is both passing yards (4,319) passing yards and touchdown passes (35), and sixth in passer rating (102.5). He was also seventh among QBs in total EVE.

However, his final two games put a damper on the Vikings’ 14-2 start to the season. With the NFC No. 1 seed at stake against Detroit in the final week of the regular season, he was 18 of 41 for 166 yards as the Vikings managed only field goals in a 31-9 loss. The next weekend, Darnold was sacked nine times and committed two turnovers as the Vikings were bounced by the Los Angeles Rams 27-9 in the wild-card round.

Some of the other negatives weren’t as bad below the surface. His 12 interceptions tied seven other QBs for the fourth most, but of the 11 who had at least that many, only one had a lower interception rate than Darnold’s 2.2%. While he was sacked 48 times (tied for fourth), he still surpassed 200+ rushing yards (212) for the third time in his career. Also, while he was 16th in completion percentage (66.2), he had the league high with 41 completions of 25+ yards.

There are warning signs given his success in 2024 was so different from earlier in his career. Darnold’s 5.04 pickable pass percentage – which measures how often a pass is deemed pickable by the defense regardless of the end result – was the second highest among QBs with 300+ pass attempts. Additionally, he ranked only 20th in well-thrown percentage (80.7) and 19th in catchable ball percentage (77.1) among that group.

A lot of numbers add up in different ways with Sam Darnold. The Seahawks want their big catch in NFL free agency to make the number go up in the win column.

Enjoy this? You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Threads, Bluesky and Facebook.

The post NFL Free Agency: Will Sam Darnold Return on the Seahawks’ Big Investment? appeared first on Opta Analyst.