Seahawks’ Gamble on Sam Darnold: Is This the Make-or-Break Moment for Their Franchise?

Sam Darnold: the name that stirred up NFL free agency chatter like a summer storm. Here’s a guy who managed to turn a shaky start into a breakout season last year — and now the Seattle Seahawks are betting big on that flash of brilliance, handing him a hefty three-year, $100.5 million contract. But here’s the rub: Can Darnold replicate that near-miracle run behind a Seahawks offensive line projected near the bottom of the league in pass protection? His underlying numbers paint a picture both promising and precarious — making him one of the most intriguingly risky signings in recent memory. So, will this be the savvy jackpot Seattle hopes for, or a classic case of chasing last season’s lightning in a bottle? Let’s dig into the digits, drama, and data behind this high-stakes gamble. LEARN MORE.

Quarterback Sam Darnold was considered one of the biggest prizes of NFL free agency this offseason. He’s trying to repeat a breakout season following a mediocre start to his career. The numbers indicate thereâs both good and bad for the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seattle Seahawks are banking on the majority of quarterback Sam Darnoldâs 2024 season to be representative of what theyâre receiving as opposed to the disastrous ending to his breakout campaign.

This after the NFC West team reached agreement with Darnold on Monday on a reported three-year, $100.5 million free agent contract, including $55 million in guaranteed money.

The question is, will the payoff come on the field with Darnold, whom CBS Sports ranked as the best available quarterback this offseason in a group that also included Aaron Rogers, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson?

In turning to Darnold, who was a first-time Pro Bowl selection in his only season with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, the Seahawks have replaced three-year starter Geno Smith, whoâs been traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. Darnold, who turns 28 in June, joins his fifth different franchise as he heads into his eighth NFL season.

The Seahawks went 10-7, but missed the playoffs last season. Our game predictions model, which assigns a point value for each team corresponding to its current depth chart, favors Smith with the Seahawks by one point more than with Darnold at QB.

Last season, Darnold was league average in EVE in expected pass situations, one of our most valuable metrics for QB evaluation, while Smith was 1.5 yards better. Darnold was league average despite throwing behind a top-10 pass protection unit in the league. The Seahawks are currently projected for the leagueâs seventh-worst pass pro unit next season, so it’s a tougher situation for a quarterback who was in the much-more advantageous spot in 2024.

Make no mistake, thereâs also plenty of good behind Darnoldâs big season. He ranked fifth in the league is both passing yards (4,319) passing yards and touchdown passes (35), and sixth in passer rating (102.5). He was also seventh among QBs in total EVE.

However, his final two games put a damper on the Vikingsâ 14-2 start to the season. With the NFC No. 1 seed at stake against Detroit in the final week of the regular season, he was 18 of 41 for 166 yards as the Vikings managed only field goals in a 31-9 loss. The next weekend, Darnold was sacked nine times and committed two turnovers as the Vikings were bounced by the Los Angeles Rams 27-9 in the wild-card round.

Some of the other negatives werenât as bad below the surface. His 12 interceptions tied seven other QBs for the fourth most, but of the 11 who had at least that many, only one had a lower interception rate than Darnoldâs 2.2%. While he was sacked 48 times (tied for fourth), he still surpassed 200+ rushing yards (212) for the third time in his career. Also, while he was 16th in completion percentage (66.2), he had the league high with 41 completions of 25+ yards.

There are warning signs given his success in 2024 was so different from earlier in his career. Darnoldâs 5.04 pickable pass percentage â which measures how often a pass is deemed pickable by the defense regardless of the end result â was the second highest among QBs with 300+ pass attempts. Additionally, he ranked only 20th in well-thrown percentage (80.7) and 19th in catchable ball percentage (77.1) among that group.

A lot of numbers add up in different ways with Sam Darnold. The Seahawks want their big catch in NFL free agency to make the number go up in the win column.

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The post NFL Free Agency: Will Sam Darnold Return on the Seahawks’ Big Investment? appeared first on Opta Analyst.