SEC Showdown: Which Dark Horse Will Shock the Nation in College Football’s Fiercest Conference?

The Southeastern Conference has long been the gold standard in college football — a league where legends are forged and dynasties rise and tumble like the tides. As we peer into the crystal ball for the 2025 season, one can’t help but wonder: just how good will the SEC be this time around? Texas and Georgia seem poised to steamroll their way into the College Football Playoff — unless chaos strikes hard and fast. But with roughly ten teams harboring at least a whisper of playoff hope, the conference feels more like a powder keg than ever. Will Oklahoma’s coaching drama erupt midseason? Could Alabama shock the world yet again by missing the playoffs? Is Texas A&M’s momentum a house of cards? And what of Tennessee’s gamble on quarterbacks? The 2025 SEC isn’t just competitive; it’s downright combustible — a thrilling tinderbox ready to ignite. Dive into our detailed preseason field guide, studded with cutting-edge TRACR analytics, wildcards to watch, and a peek behind the scenes of epic gridiron battles yet to come. Buckle up — it’s going to be one heck of a ride. LEARN MORE.

The Southeastern Conference is usually the cream of the crop when it comes to the top leagues in the nation. Here’s how the SEC looks heading into the 2025 college football season.

The Southeastern Conference will be good at football in 2025. 

How good? That’s a secret.

But Texas and Georgia would have to mess a lot of things up to miss the College Football Playoff, and the league has around 10 teams whose playoff chances look higher than zero as we sit here in the summer.

Because of that potential, the scenario might feel even angstier than usual: Imagine Oklahoma firing a coach at midseason, Alabama missing the 12-team playoff for the second year in a row, Texas A&M’s momentum stalling under Mike Elko, or Tennessee living to regret its decision to let a quarterback walk out the door during spring practice.

The 2025 SEC is a lot of things, but above all, it’s combustible. 

The Opta supercomputer might have a slightly different outlook. It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.

The supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record for 2025. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.

Here’s a preseason field guide to the conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their league TRACR ranking.

SEC Projected Records

1. Texas

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st (5th OFF, 1st DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 1st (2nd OFF, 1st DEF)

One scary thing: The loss of star defensive tackles Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton and Jermayne Lole. The trio combined for a silly 57 run stuffs. The Horns will lean on transfers from North Carolina and Purdue, Travis Shaw and Cole Brevard, respectively, to plug the literal gaps left in the middle. 

One exciting thing: The growth of the program’s young pass rushers. Sophomore Colin Simmons led the team in pressures (52) and adjusted sacks (15) as a true freshman. Texas has an embarrassment of edge-rushing riches, with Trey Moore and Ethan Burke also back and five-star edge Justus Terry generating tons of excitement before he even plays a down. 

Player to watch: Quarterback Arch Manning, obviously. If he’s above average like Quinn Ewers, Texas is a playoff team that could make a run. If he’s a star, the Longhorns are the title favorites. 

(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)

2. Georgia

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th (3rd OFF, 7th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 2nd (3rd OFF, 2nd DEF)

One scary thing: Georgia’s offensive line was up and down last year and, in the middle of the season, looked downright lousy. Is that fixed now, with four starters gone, three of them having been top-three-round NFL picks? The jury is out. 

One exciting thing: I think UGA’s wide receivers should be better. USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas are proven, high-upside additions. 

Player to watch: Gunner Stockton, who will get the first crack at succeeding Carson Beck as quarterback. How those wide receivers perform will have lots to do with his success. 

3. Alabama

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 3rd (4th OFF, 3rd DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 3rd (5th OFF, 3rd DEF)

One scary thing: A vacuum at quarterback. Jalen Milroe’s departure leaves Ty Simpson positioned to start Week 1 against Florida State. If he’s not good, look for Washington transfer Austin Mack, who came along with his old offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, this offseason. 

One exciting thing: A second year of Ryan Williams catching passes from, well, whoever. 

Player to watch: Linebacker Deontae Lawson, the Tide’s returning leader in tackles, tackles for loss (TFLs), and sacks. Lawson and cornerback Domani Jackson are the most known havoc creators here. 

4. LSU

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th (1st OFF, 13th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 4th (1st OFF, 11th DEF)

One scary thing: Line play is up in the air on both sides of the ball. I’m a little queasy about the front five on offense after losing four NFL players, including All-American left tackle Will Campbell. 

One exciting thing: Garrett Nussmeier might (might!) be the best QB in the SEC, but it’s probably fair to say he has the highest floor. It’s very unlikely that LSU doesn’t have well above-average QB play. 

Player to watch: Receiver Aaron Anderson, the only one of LSU’s top five receivers who returns to help Nussmeier. His 80.7% open rate last fall was fifth in the SEC (minimum 60 targets).

5. Texas A&M

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th (9th OFF, 10th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 5th (4th OFF, 8th DEF)

One scary thing: The receiving group may not have the goods for QB Marcel Reed. The top five receivers from last year are gone, led by Noah Thomas, who’s now in Athens. I love Kevin Concepcion, a North Carolina State transfer, but have questions about the depth at this position. 

One exciting thing: The whole running game. Backs Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels can both play, and Reed is a legit dual threat alongside them. I expect a 39.6% run success rate (11th in the league) to go up substantially with a full year of Reed at quarterback and tons of returning linemen. 

Player to watch: Reed could be A&M’s best quarterback since Johnny Manziel. 

6. Ole Miss

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd (2nd OFF, 4th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 6th (7th OFF, 4th DEF)

One scary thing: There are a lot of good wide receivers who are no longer here. Ole Miss loses Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins and Juice Wells, to say nothing of the guy who threw them the ball. 

One exciting thing: The emergence of a new quarterback, Austin Simmons. The word from Oxford is that Simmons, who also plays for Ole Miss’ baseball team, has the goods. He only took 79 snaps last year behind first-round pick Jaxson Dart, so it may take some time to know for sure. 

Player to watch: De’Zhaun Stribling, the wideout transfer from Oklahoma State who had 882 yards for a doomed Pokes team last year. A first-year starting QB abhors a vacuum of wide receivers. 

7. South Carolina

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th (14th OFF, 6th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 7th (6th OFF, 7th DEF)

One scary thing: Can this team run the ball with Rocket Sanders gone and a patchwork offensive line made out of portal additions? A 38.8% run success rate last year was fifth-worst in the SEC.

One exciting thing: This team just has so many potential stars. QB LaNorris Sellers already is one. Edge rusher Dylan Stewart had nine adjusted sacks as a true freshman. Receiver Nyck Harbor hasn’t put it all together yet but might be the best athlete in the country. 

Player to watch: Edge Bryan Thomas, who replaces Kyle Kennard in the pass rushing spot opposite Stewart. Kennard (13 adjusted sacks) made it much harder for teams to double Stewart, and vice versa. Thomas (an 18.5% pressure rate as a rotation player) has a big job. 

8. Tennessee

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th (8th OFF, 5th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 8th (12th OFF, 5th DEF)

One scary thing: Swapping to a relative unknown at quarterback: Joey Aguilar, who replaced Nico Iamaleava in the spring after Iamaleava entered the NCAA transfer portal in search of more dollars. Aguilar’s open-target rate at Appalachian State was 67.8%, well below the Sun Belt average. Josh Heupel will try to scheme up many more open receivers. If he does, Aguilar will be a nice bit of Moneyballing by the Vols.  

One exciting thing: Running back DeSean Bishop looks poised for a breakout. I think he might turn out better than Dylan Sampson, who’s in the NFL. 

Player to watch: Linebacker Arion Carter, the Vols’ leader with 6.5 TFLs and 22 run stuffs. Carter is a thumping, athletic weakside backer who will captain this defense. 

9. Auburn

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 10th (13th OFF, 9th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 9th (9th OFF, 9th DEF)

One scary thing: The schedule. Auburn has road trips to Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas A&M in the first five weeks of the season, then hosts Georgia and Missouri after a bye. I wonder about the shape of the season, and Hugh Freeze’s tenure, if this team has four losses in mid-October. 

One exciting thing: Jackson Arnold playing QB for a team that has more than zero healthy wide receivers and whose offensive line is not attempting to get him decapitated all the time. (It seems like his old coach, Brent Venables, is also interested in seeing this version of Arnold.) 

Player to watch: True freshman defensive tackle Jourdin Crawford. Why? Freeze plays true freshmen and sees fit to compare this one to Robert Nkemdiche. 

10. Arkansas

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 11th (7th OFF, 12th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 10th (8th OFF, 13th DEF)

One scary thing: The schedule is hard even by SEC standards, thanks to a visit to Memphis and a home game against Notre Dame. I’m worried about the receivers after Arkansas lost a collection of good wideouts to the NFL and the portal. Sam Pittman needs a handful of Group of Five transfers to be really good. 

One exciting thing: For the first time in a while, Pittman – a former offensive line coach – has what should be one of the better lines in the SEC. Left guard Fernando Carmona was a nice addition last year from San Jose State (6.7% run disruption rate allowed) and should do well in a move to guard. 

Player to watch: Weak-side linebacker Xavian Sorey, whose 7.5 TFLs were twice as many as any other Razorback made last year. 

11. Oklahoma

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 13th (16th OFF, 2nd DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 11th (15th OFF, 6th DEF)

One scary thing: Line play. Oklahoma’s offensive line was an affront to the football gods last year. Legendary position coach Bill Bedenbaugh has his work cut out, with a pair of transfers from Stanford and one from FCS (more on him shortly) joining the mix. 

One exciting thing: An imported offense, with coordinator Ben Arbuckle, QB John Mateer and running back Jaydn Ott as the headliners. Oklahoma’s offense hurt to watch last year. Those days should be done. 

Player to watch: Tackle Derek Simmons, a transfer from FCS Western Carolina who might find himself protecting Mateer’s blind side. He should be a fascinating player this season. 

12. Kentucky

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 14th (15th OFF, 11th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 12th (11th OFF, 12th DEF)

One scary thing: It’s hard to pick just one. The Wildcats are going to struggle to win five games, and I have real fears that they will lose a MAC game to Toledo or Eastern Michigan. Can they stop the run? Last year they could not, and that was before losing Jamon Dumas-Johnson, among other linebackers. 

One exciting thing: Receiver Ja’Mori Maclin was a 1,000-yard man for North Texas two years ago before posting just 13 catches for 313 yards in Lexington. But this was mostly a deployment problem, and Maclin had a strong finish once UK moved him from the slot to the outside. He’ll play there this year. 

Player to watch: Zach Calzada, a former Texas A&M quarterback who is back in the SEC after an excellent run at FCS Incarnate Word. He did once beat Nick Saban, after all.

13. Florida

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th (6th OFF, 8th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 13th (13th OFF, 10th DEF)

One scary thing: Florida’s special teams were arguably the best in the country in 2024, and the team’s strongest suits were punting, punt coverage and punt returns. Ray Guy Award finalist punter Ryan Crawshaw is gone, as is return man Chimere Dike. Keep an eye on this: Florida frequently had a field position advantage last year, and it’ll take work to keep that up. 

One exciting thing: DJ Lagway has all-timer potential. He’ll need to dial the pickable passes way back – a 5.9% rate last year – but he could singlehandedly make Florida good. 

Player to watch: Center Jake Slaughter, a first-team All-American who for some reason is back for his senior season and didn’t go to the NFL. He allowed two QB knockdowns on 260 pass-blocking snaps. 

14. Missouri

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th (10th OFF, 14th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 14th (14th OFF, 14th DEF)

One scary thing: The loss not just of QB Brady Cook but a whole fleet of strong skill-position players, led by receivers Luther Burden and Theo Wease and running back Nate Noel. At one or two of these spots, Mizzou is likely to have an excellent replacement, but at all of them? Beau Pribula, the Penn State backup, takes over at quarterback. We don’t know a ton about his upside. 

One exciting thing: Louisiana-Monroe running back transfer Ahmad Hardy is a stud. He averaged not just 5.7 yards per carry but 2.7 after contact and 3.9 per run disruption, all elite figures in the Sun Belt. 

Player to watch: Let’s make this all about these skill-position reinforcements. Mississippi State/Louisville wideout transfer Kevin Coleman was fourth in the SEC last year with 65 burns, targets on which he got separation from the defender covering him. He’s a QB-friendly option, and Pribula will need all the QB friendliness he can find. 

15. Mississippi State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 16th (12th OFF, 16th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 15th (10th OFF, 16th DEF)

One scary thing: After Blake Shapen got hurt early last season, both he and Jeff Lebby decided to run back their relationship for one more year – Shapen’s sixth in college football. I’m not sure he has that much development left to do, or that he’s that good. I suggest that State run the ball a lot. 

One exciting thing: The addition of South Alabama running back transfer Fluff Bothwell, a bowling ball-style back who torched the Sun Belt as a true freshman. With Davon Booth and Johnnie Daniels back, State has an unusually good tailback trio for a team that’s likely to lose eight games. 

Player to watch: Anyone who can get after a quarterback. The Bulldogs did almost none of that last season, but linebacker Zakari Tillman returns off a 3.5-sack season.  

16. Vanderbilt

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 15th (11th OFF, 15th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 16th (16th OFF, 15th DEF)

One scary thing: The likely lack of a pass rush. Vandy’s 27.5% pressure rate was second-lowest in the SEC, ahead of only Mississippi State. The Commodores have a few accomplished pass-rushers (linebacker Nick Rinaldi tops among them), but I worry about opposing QBs having too much time. 

One exciting thing: The receivers. You may recall several of them dunking on Alabama repeatedly last October. Tight end Eli Stowers and wideout Junior Sherrill are a nice foundation, though the Dores could use someone like New Mexico State transfer Trent Hudson to break out, too. 

Player to watch: It’s still Diego Pavia, who used a lawsuit to gain an extra year of eligibility and give Vanderbilt above-average QB play for another year. 

Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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