Shocking Picks Revealed: Underdog Teams Poised to Stun Favorites in 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament

As the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament comes to an unceremonious conclusion this Friday, one might ask, “Is there any real excitement left in this so-called ‘tournament’?” Well, if you’re like me, a hopeless betting enthusiast and NBA aficionado, the answer is a resounding (and slightly hypocritical) yes. Sure, the endgame seems predictable with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder poised as round-one executioners, but the thrill of the bet, the gamble, the sheer joy of backing underdogs or maybe even lucking into a win against all odds—this junk is my crack. Yes, I’m down 19.37 units this season, but with each bet, I’m strategizing my comeback in the playoffs. After all, as they say… “hope springs eternal in a bettor’s chest.” LEARN MORE

Friday is the last day of this 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament crap. Besides the Golden State Warriors, no one cares about the other seven play-in teams. The winners of both games Friday will be crushed by the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs and the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder out West. 

However, as an NBA fan and basketball betting sicko, this play-in tourney gives me more product to gamble on, which I love. I mean, why wouldn’t I? I’m only down 19.37 units (u) this season. Nevertheless, I plan on getting all of it back in the 2025 NBA Playoffs, with interest. 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

As I posted on X Thursday morning, Miami’s moneyline is my first two-unit “banger bet” of the NBA season. I locked in that play after publicizing it and discussing it on the recent OutKick Bets Podcast. Look at me (I know you can’t, just pretend): There is no f*cking chance Atlanta wins this game. The Heat have the two best players on the floor: Combo guard Tyler Herro and PF Bam Adebayo. 

Hawks PG Trae Young isn’t even the best player on their roster. That distinction goes to wing Jalen Johnson, who suffered a season-ending injury in January. Bam squashes Trae’s pick-and-roll bullsh*t, and Miami PG Davion Mitchell, aka Off Night, is among the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. Mitchell does what Heat combo guard Terry Rozier is supposed to do.  

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Furthermore, the Heat has low-key played well at the end of the regular season. They were fifth in net rating over the last 15 games and second in spread differential (+7.3) over the previous two weeks, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Lastly, 3-pointers are the end all be all of basketball nowadays and Miami is stacked with sharpshooters, including Herro, Mitchell, and SG Alec Burks.  

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I hit on Dallas’s and Memphis’s first play-in tourney games, so I feel like I have a good read on these teams. The Mavs +5 and moneyline in their 120-106 win vs. the Sacramento Kings Wednesday, and the Over 228.5 in the Grizzlies’ 121-116 loss to Golden State for the Western Conference’s 7-seed Tuesday. 

That said, Mavericks big Anthony Davis is the best player on the floor and Dallas negates what Memphis likes to do, which is crash the glass and attack the paint. The Mavs have four solid bigs, who do different things, such as AD, PF P.J. Washington, and centers Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford. 

Those guys make it tough for Memphis PG Ja Morant to go to the rack and for his teammates to grab offensive rebounds. Plus, the Grizzlies aren’t a good enough 3-point shooting team to pull Dallas’s bigs out of the paint. Memphis shoots worse when Ja and PF Jaren Jackson Jr. are on the floor, yet they both need to play for the Grizzlies to win Friday. 

Also, something about the Mavericks making the playoffs after trading Luka Dončić to the LA Lakers and pissing off their entire fanbase feels right. In addition, Memphis has no business making the postseason after firing former head coach Taylor Jenkins with nine games left in the regular season. Both teams are a joke, but at least the Mavs have AD and Klay Thompson. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.