Shocking Upset or Reigning Champion? Dark Horses Emerge in 2025 Women’s NCAA March Madness Predictions

This could be a team that gives coach Geno Auriemma his 12th national title.

Spokane 4: Probability of Making the Final Four

1. UConn (39.6%)
2. USC (28.9%)
3. Oklahoma (10.8%)
4. Kansas State (7.2%)
5. Kentucky (5.8%)
6. Iowa (3.1%)
7. Oklahoma State (1.7%)
8. Mississippi State (1.1%)
9. California (1.0%)
10. Murray State (0.3%)
11. South Dakota State (0.2%)
12. FGCU (0.2%)
13. Liberty (0.1%)
14. Fairfield (<0.1%)
15. Arkansas State (<0.1%)
16. UNC Greensboro (<0.1%)

Don’t Go Crazy With Early Upsets

The chaos that stems in the men’s NCAA Tournament does not transfer over to the women’s tournament. In fact, last season there was only ONE upset in the entire first round, when 11-seeded Middle Tennessee edged 6-seed Louisville. Even all the 8 seeds beat the 9 seeds. Having only one upset last year was a rarity, but it illustrated the general lack of upsets on the women’s side.

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