Sorry, I didn’t catch the article title. Could you please provide it?

Is your team still dreaming of October glory, or already penciling in a winter off? As we cross that unofficial baseball Rubicon known as Memorial Day, it’s high time for some hard truths and hopeful calculations. You know the old chestnut: you can’t truly size up a Major League Baseball season until those late-May sunrises have warmed the diamond. Well, the calendar’s flipped, and here we are—facing questions as sharp as a curveball. Have the Brewers finally lost their crown in the NL Central? Are the Rockies on the verge of eclipsing infamous losing records? And can the Tigers’ steady roar be trusted, or is it just a mirage? We’re diving back into our TRACR-powered projection model, that clever mix of metrics and algorithms, to unravel the division races and playoff prospects as they stand. Buckle up—this isn’t your spring training hype; it’s the present tense of 2025 baseball, served straight-up with a side of “what next?” LEARN MORE.
Will your team be playing in October? We’re revisiting our TRACR-powered projection model to see what its MLB playoff predictions look like after passing Memorial Day.

So here we are.

The Minnesota Twins (29-24) have rolled back into the race with a 16-6 record so far in May. The last time they won at least 75.0% of their games in a single calendar month (minimum 10 games) was April 2002, when they went 18-6.

The Chicago White Sox (17-37) aren’t good, but they aren’t nearly as bad as they were last season. They have the sixth-highest differential between preseason TRACR and current TRACR (+0.90), and are projected to have a plus-22 win increase over 2024.

The Cleveland Guardians (29-24) are always in the hunt, though they’ve been uncharacteristically sloppy. They’ve made the sixth-most errors (33) in MLB and own the fifth-worst fielding percentage (.982). They’ve also had three games with three or more errors, tied with the Red Sox for second-most in the majors behind the woeful Rockies (five).

The reality is that the Dodgers are not on pace to finish with the most wins in baseball history. In fact, they don’t even have the best record in MLB. They’re tied for fourth, and projected to win the NL West with “only” 94 victories.

The superstar offseason addition has the second-lowest batting average of his career through 53 games of a season.

NL Central

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team.

But after losing Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Devin Williams and Brandon Woodruff over the past couple seasons, the Brew Crew appears to have finally taken a step back.

Remember all the spring training talk about how the Los Angeles Dodgers (33-21) were so good they were bad for baseball? And they were definitely a lock to set the all-time record for wins in a season, right?

Can the surprising San Francisco Giants (31-23) stay with the rival Dodgers? Our model thinks so, projecting them to finish just 2.4 wins behind LA.

How does our model project what is perhaps the most jumbled division in baseball? With a familiar team at the top.

Our projection model incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule to calculate an expected run differential per 27 outs, which is used to simulate the remaining schedule and produce our predictions.

Then they lost ace Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery, and still have made the fourth-largest jump in TRACR since the preseason projections.

NL East

Will the Colorado Rockies (9-45) break the 2024 Chicago White Sox’s record for most losses in a season? It’s going to be close, according to our projections. But they’re also on pace (by far) to become the worst team in the modern era, per TRACR.

Though the Houston Astros (28-25) entered Tuesday’s action 1.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners (29-23), the Astros rank first in the division in O-TRACR, second in D-TRACR and easily first overall (0.73 to Seattle’s 0.17).

Juan Soto: Highest Batting Avg. in First 53 Player Games

1. .315 – 2024 w/NYY
2. .311 – 2018 w/WAS
3. .289 – 2019 w/WAS
4. .267 – 2021 w/WAS
5. .261 – 2023 w/SD
6. .233 – 2025 w/NYM
7. .228 – 2022 w/WAS

As a result of their six-game winning streak, the Tampa Bay Rays (27-26) have surged from 19th in our TRACR rankings to ninth. However, the Toronto Blue Jays (26-27), Boston Red Sox (27-29) and Orioles are all projected to finish with fewer than 80 wins, leaving the former powerhouse division with just two teams expected to end up above .500.

The post 2025 MLB Playoff Predictions: Where Teams Project to Finish at the Memorial Day Marker appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Can we finally say that the Detroit Tigers are for real? Or that the Baltimore Orioles are experiencing a fall from grace like we haven’t seen in quite some time?

It certainly hasn’t helped Milwaukee that the two teams to make the largest leaps so far compared to our preseason projections are also in the NL Central.

Bobby Witt Jr. and solid pitching and defense (second in D-TRACR) will likely keep the Kansas City Royals (29-26) around. Witt Jr. is the only player in MLB to lead his team in runs, hits, doubles, triples and stolen bases.

The Central could have a huge say in the AL wild-card race again, with three teams projected to win between 82-86 games. (The Rays are projected to be the first wild-card team at 86.5 victories.)

NL West

The Philadelphia Phillies (34-19) have gone a major league-best 21-6 since April 26, but our model still likes the Mets to hold them off in the East.

The New York Yankees (33-20) sit atop our TRACR rankings, but they’ve been even better than our model expected after losing Juan Soto in the offseason.

It’s somewhat remarkable the New York Mets (33-21) have gotten off to the kind of start they have without much contribution from Juan Soto.

The Los Angeles Angels (25-28) worked their way back into the conversation in the West with eight straight wins, but they’ve since dropped three in a row. Los Angeles averaged 7.6 runs per game during its win streak but has managed just three total runs in its three losses.

The Chicago Cubs (33-21), who have gone from 14th in TRACR to second, and the surprising St. Louis Cardinals (30-24), who have soared from 20th to fourth.

There’s an adage that you can’t make any big-picture determinations about a Major League Baseball season until the calendar hits Memorial Day.

Acuna Jr. has two homers, a double and a walk in his three games this season. The last Braves right fielder to do that in his first three games of a season was David Justice in 1995.

Lowest Single-Season TRACR (Since 1901)

1. -3.07 – 2025 Colorado Rockies
2. -2.57 – 1932 Boston Red Sox
3. -2.54 – 1924 Boston Braves
4. -2.45 – 1915 Philadelphia Athletics
5. -2.41 – 1945 Philadelphia Phillies

AL East

Milwaukee has suffered the fifth-largest drop in projected TRACR prior to the season (12th; 0.50) to TRACR heading into May 27 action (22nd; minus-0.29). Again, TRACR uses advanced metrics and other factors to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club.

What kind of proclamations can we make at the first marker of the 2025 MLB season? That the Beer Makers are no longer the kings of the NL Central? Or the Colorado Rockies are actually worse that the historically bad 2024 Chicago White Sox?

That’s part of the reason why Houston is projected to return to the top of the West (by four games over the Mariners).

As they say, this is why they play the games.

Largest Decrease in Win Pct – Since 1969

1. 1997-98 Florida Marlins (-.235)
2. 1981-82 Cincinnati Reds (-.234)
3. 2024-25 Colorado Rockies (-.210)
4. 2003-04 Arizona Diamondbacks (-.204)
5. 2024-25 Baltimore Orioles (-.204)

AL Central

After a promising start, the Athletics (23-31) have lost six straight series – tied for the second-longest series losing streak this season (Rockies, active 17 series losing streak). It’s tied for the fourth-longest series losing streak by the A’s since 2009.

The Baltimore Orioles (19-34), who were 33-18 heading into May 27 a year ago, have won a season-high three in a row but have likely buried themselves into too big of a hole to dig out. Even after their win streak, the O’s are on pace for the fifth-largest decrease in winning percentage from one season to the next since the divisional era began.

The San Diego Padres (30-22) have won two in a row after a dismal 5-11 stretch. Jackson Merrill hit 28 for 60 (.467) with four homers, four doubles and 17 RBIs in his first 15 games this season, but he’s since batted 8 for 48 (.167) with no homers, one double and one RBI in his last 12.

He’s still just two hits away from becoming the second-youngest player (22 years, 38 days) in franchise history to reach 200 in his career (Roberto Alomar – 21 years, 113 days).

Our model has the Atlanta Braves (25-27) with about 81 projected wins behind the surging Phillies and Mets, but it’s fair to speculate that it could rise with 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. back and already making an impact, and ace Spencer Strider working his way back into form.

It may have been fair to ask whether a 31-13 finish in 2024 was a fluke. But now the Detroit Tigers (35-20) have gone an MLB-best 66-33 since Aug. 11 of last year.

By the unwritten rules of the baseball calendar, we can say all of it. But we’ll also explain further as we go through how our projection model sees the division races playing out the rest of the way.

AL West

Will the Milwaukee Brewers (27-28) finish in fourth place? Can’t be, right?

Trea Turner has played a key role in the Phillies’ surge, totaling six extra-base hits, eight RBIs and four stolen bases over his last seven games. He became the first Phillies player to reach those marks in a seven-game span since Jimmy Rollins in September 2007.

The Tigers are well-rounded with an lineup that ranks second in O-TRACR and a pitching staff that ranks fifth in raw value. Our model is convinced, giving them the third-highest probability (20.0%) of reaching the World Series behind the Yankees (39.1%) and Cubs (27.3%).

The Cubs have an MLB-high five players with nine home runs or more and rank first in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR). The Cards, who are seventh in MLB in defensive TRACR (run prevention, so pitching and defense), have won 16 of their last 21.

Stowers is one of three players this season to hit at least .300 with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs (Aaron Judge, Teoscar Hernandez). The last Marlin to do that through the first 50 games of a season was Marcell Ozuna in 2017.

James Wood has been a bright spot for the Washington Nationals (24-29) and Kyle Stowers has been one for the Miami Marlins (21-31). Wood is one of four players in the NL with at least 30 runs scored, 30 RBIs, 30 walks and 25 extra-base hits, joining Pete Alonso, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.

The Cincinnati Reds (27-28) have blown two games after leading by at least five runs – tied for most in MLB with the Atlanta Braves. They have the fifth-worst bullpen raw value in the National League. The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-36) have played it close, but they’ve only won 10 of their 22 one-run games – also tied with Atlanta for the most in MLB.
The Texas Rangers (26-29) have the best D-TRACR in the AL West and rank fifth in all of baseball in starting pitching raw value. Jacob deGrom has a 2.42 ERA in 20 career starts with Texas, the third-lowest ERA through 20 starts with the franchise behind only Mike Paul’s 2.24 (all 20 starts in 1972) and Dick Donovan’s 2.37 (all 20 starts in 1961).