South Florida’s Redemption: Can They Rewrite History Against UAB?

So yesterday went pretty well—a 2-1 run that nudged my bank account in the right direction. Splitting units between the Hawks moneyline and the under felt solid, even if the under fizzled after the first quarter and the over eventually took the day with a combined 246 points scored. Now, shifting gears to tonight’s matchup: South Florida versus UAB at 7:00 ET. Looking at these two squads, you might wonder—can teams that aren’t exactly powerhouses still deliver a nail-biter full of drama and heart? South Florida’s had a rollercoaster season, with some head-scratching losses and a few near misses that had me biting my nails. UAB? Not much better, with some rough patches and a recent wobble at home that’s got me thinking—will these two evenly matched teams just cancel each other out, or is there a revenge story brewing on the hardwood? Tonight might just be the kind of game that proves you don’t always need to dominate to provide pure basketball theater. I’m backing the Bulls to cover the -2.5 but hey, isn’t that what makes these games a little thrilling? LEARN MORE.

South Florida vs. UAB, 7:00 ET

I ended up going 2-1 yesterday and getting a bit of profit as a result. I split a unit on the Hawks and Grizzlies between the Hawks moneyline and the under. The under was fairly dead after the first quarter, but I still think the analysis was correct. The teams combined for 246 points, and the total was 239.5 when I bet it. So, clearly, the over won. In any case, the Hawks pulled out that game, so I was happy to get the win. I’m looking for another one tonight as South Florida takes on UAB.

South Florida is not really an elite basketball program. They’ve had a bit of luck in College Football over the last decade, but that doesn’t seem to have translated to a ton of great basketball teams. The team is 11-7 for the season, and they have a 3-2 record in the American Conference. Looking at their losses, they have a mixture of ones that you can understand without even digging into the box score, and others where you’re left scratching your head. Let’s cover them – they dropped a game to George Washington on a neutral court in the second game of the year. It was close, losing by four points, but still a bit confusing at best. They traveled to Oklahoma State and lost by eight in that one. I can’t say that is much of a surprise. Then they had another neutral court game where they fell to VCU by 12. Again, I probably can understand it. The next loss got worse as they fell by 15 to Colorado State again in a neutral settin,g as this was part of the same Thanksgiving tournament. They lost on the road to Alabama. Their past two losses were very competitive. They fell to UAB at home, losing by three in double overtime, and they lost at home to Wichita State in overtime on Sunday.

UAB is not having a substantially better season. They are 12-7 for the year, and they are just 3-3 in the conference as well. They have shown that they can battle with most teams, but like their counterpart tonight, they aren’t really great at any one thing. That makes it hard to win games when most of your competition is relatively evenly matched. For the year, they started just 1-2, dropping games to NC State and Alabama State. The Alabama State game was concerning as they were at home, but they dropped that one by just three points. After a nice stretch that ran their record to 6-2, they lost two of their next three to Middle Tennessee and Troy. Again, the home loss was by just one point. They have also lost their past three home games, falling to Wichita State, Florida Atlantic, and Tulsa. The Tulsa game was an embarrassment as they lost by 22 on their own floor.

In the first matchup between these two teams, it was an offensive explosion. Neither team could get a stop, and both shot fairly well from the floor. Neither team is great at shooting, but I think they can match their output from the last game. Looking at the box score, South Florida was probably the better team in most key categories. They just let the game get away from them. They were even leading the game for 70% of it, then lost in double overtime. They are favored here tonight as UAB has struggled lately, and the Bulls haven’t been great, but have been competitive. This feels like a good revenge game for them. I’ll back the Bulls on the road to cover the -2.5.

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