Sun Belt Showdown: Which Dark Horse Will Seize the Unexpected Opportunity?
Once dismissed as the sorry stepchild of FBS, the Sun Belt Conference has clawed its way into the spotlight, now making a formidable case as the second-strongest league in the Group of Five — and some seasons, perhaps even more. But with 2025 around the corner, the question looms large: can this patchwork of rising programs maintain its swagger amid upheaval and uncertainty? Marshall’s reigning champions stumble into the new campaign hollowed out, Appalachian State hits the reset button, and James Madison juggles a quarterback carousel that could make even the steadiest fan dizzy. As the Opta supercomputer churns its data through the TRACR model — weighing last season’s rhythms against the chaos of transfers and recruiting — one thing’s clear: the Sun Belt’s wide-open race might just deliver the unexpected yet again. Curious to see which teams will cash in on opportunity and who’s just blowing smoke? Dive into the nitty-gritty, from explosive lines to defensive stalwarts, and get ready — this confab’s story is just beginning. LEARN MORE
The Sun Belt is one of the stronger conferences in the Group of Five. Here’s how the league looks heading into the 2025 college football season.
The Sun Belt has come a long way.
Once considered the dregs of FBS, it now makes a strong case as the second-best conference in the Group of Five after the American Athletic, and some years, looks even better than that.
The league has made the most successful additions of FCS powers, highlighted in the past 11 years by Appalachian State and James Madison. It has a regional sense of itself, good football and a handful of compelling teams entering 2025.
It could be a weird year in this league, though. Defending champ Marshall lost all of its key players, with a bunch of them going with the head coach to Southern Miss. Perennial contender Appalachian State fired its coach after a disappointing few years and now has to play catch-up.
JMU, likely the deepest team in the league, could wind up giving the bulk of its quarterback snaps to any of three players.
The Opta supercomputer might have a slightly different outlook. It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.
The supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record for 2025. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.
Here’s a preseason field guide to the conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their league TRACR ranking.
1. James Madison
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th (9th OFF, 2nd DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 1st (8th OFF, 1st DEF)
One scary thing: Quarterback uncertainty, though the Dukes have options. Last year’s starter, Alonza Barnett, may or may not be healthy. Bob Chesney has reunited with his former QB at FCS Holy Cross, Matt Sluka, after Sluka flopped at UNLV last fall. Also in tow is productive Richmond QB Camden Coleman. That’s a lot of variability, but someone should emerge, right?
One exciting thing: A potentially dominant offensive line, anchored by all-conference performer Pat McMurtrie at right tackle. He may well be the best OT outside the power conferences.
Player to watch: Barnett. If he’s healthy, we know JMU has a good quarterback. If he’s not, either Sluka or Coleman has to step up to keep the Dukes in the playoff race.
Sun Belt Projected Records
2. Old Dominion
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st (5th OFF, 1st DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 2nd (11th OFF, 2nd DEF)
One scary thing: The nice TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) last year didn’t convert into many wins. After a 5-7 season, ODU has all the hallmarks of a team that’s about to fire its coach if things don’t improve quickly. Ricky Rahne is 20-30 in four seasons, and he also had a fifth, 2020, to start building his program. (ODU was one of the few FBS teams not to play at all in the pandemic season.) You could imagine things tailspinning with early trips to Indiana and Virginia Tech.
One exciting thing: The best player on the team is back after a year on the sidelines. Linebacker Jason Henderson was a first-team All-American in 2023, credited with 14.2 tackles per game (1.6 per loss) to lead the country. He played in last year’s opener at South Carolina and then redshirted with an injury. His return could be transformative for the Monarchs defense.
Player to watch: Quarterback Colton Joseph, who might give the Monarchs their best situation under center since Rahne arrived in 2020. Joseph is a legit dual threat who gave ODU more of a fighting chance last year once he beat out Grant Wilson and Quinn Henicle for the job.
(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)
3. Texas State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd (2nd OFF, 6th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 3rd (6th OFF, 4th DEF)
One scary thing: Well, nearly everyone is gone. A defense that made real strides last year after being terrible for years loses nine starters. The offense, which was excellent, lost eight including the quarterback, Jordan McCloud. This is the year for coach GJ Kinne to prove he’s a rising star.
One exciting thing: Receiver Tyrin Smith was a 1,000-yard player at UTEP back in 2022. He’s had injury problems at his stops since then, primarily Cincinnati and (briefly) Texas A&M. Now he’s hopefully healthy and could be a critical part of a unit that lost its top three receivers.
Player to watch: EDGE Kalil Alexander is back after posting a 25.2% pressure rate and 12 adjusted sacks last year. Alexander only got credit for 6.5, but he was a more disruptive rusher than that. (An adjusted sack occurs when a rusher records a pressure on a play that ends in a sack by someone.)
4. Marshall
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th (4th OFF, 4th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 4th (9th OFF, 3rd DEF)
One scary thing: Almost literally the entire team is gone. Charles Huff took 25-ish players with him when he left for Southern Miss, and the Herd have around 60 new players. They are the defending Sun Belt champions in name only, with as blank a slate as any team has ever had.
One exciting thing: The running game should be fun. New head coach Tony Gibson has West Virginia roots, and he brought along coordinator Rod Smith, who had been with former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez at Jacksonville State. Gibson and Smith are going to try to recreate JSU’s bulldozing ground game, which itself was a bit of a recreation of RichRod’s WVU run games from many years ago. (A handful of transfer running backs will vie for carries in this imported system.)
Player to watch: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, the quarterback who arrives by way of Syracuse and Florida. It’ll be his job now that last year’s top guy, Braylon Braxton, has gone to Southern Miss.
5. Georgia Southern
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th (7th OFF, 3rd DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 5th (5th OFF, 5th DEF)
One scary thing: A brutal schedule. The season starts with road trips to Fresno State and Clay Helton’s old stomping ground at USC. The “easy” nonconference game is against Jacksonville State, which has tons of turnover but is still coming off a Conference USA title. James Madison and Appalachian State are both road games in conference play. Things could get dicey.
One exciting thing: Continuity. The Eagles were in the driver’s seat in the Sun Belt East for most of last year, and they have 13 starters back, including a solid Group of Five QB, JC French.
Player to watch: Cornerback Chance Gamble had three interceptions and seven pass breakups for the Eagles last year. He allowed just a 48.2% burn rate on 56 coverage targets, stacking himself up as one of the better defensive backs in the G5. He returns to anchor the secondary.
6. South Alabama
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th (3rd OFF, 7th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 6th (7th OFF, 7th DEF)
One scary thing: All three of the star skill-position players most responsible for last year’s strong offense are gone. Quarterback Gio Lopez is at North Carolina, running back Fluff Bothwell is at Mississippi State, and game-breaking receiver Jamaal Pritchett is trying to catch on with the New York Jets as an undrafted free agent.
One exciting thing: The offense still might be good. Senior tailback Kentrel Bullock was solid last year, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 2.9 after contact. He forced a missed or broken tackle on better than one in four carries, a rate that exceeded Bothwell’s. The offensive line has three-ish starters back and should be one of the better units in the Sun Belt. All is not lost.
Player to watch: Middle linebacker Blayne Myrick, who made second-team All-Sun Belt and led the Jags with 101 tackles and six for a loss last year. Only two other defensive starters return from a unit that wasn’t very good, so the stability Myrick provides will be all the more critical.
7. Louisiana
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 3rd (1st OFF, 9th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 7th (2nd OFF, 8th DEF)
One scary thing: An entirely revamped passing game, from quarterback (more on him shortly) to offensive line (just two returning starters) to the receiving group, which loses its top four targets from last year. Louisiana had an excellent offense last year, one that tore up the Sun Belt and even dropped 41 points on the ACC’s Wake Forest. This year’s team may have to lean more on …
One exciting thing: The return of two solid running backs, Zylan Perry and Bill Davis, who combined for 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. Productive Group of Five running backs tend to get plucked in the portal, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have two with some staying power.
Player to watch: Walker Howard, the long-ago four-star quarterback at LSU and then Ole Miss, arrives to lead the offense. Louisiana reached the Sun Belt Championship on the strength of a nice season by QB Ben Wooldridge (and, after he got hurt, backup Chandler Fields). Howard has big shoes to fill, albeit from a QB who wasn’t nearly as touted as he was coming into the sport.
8. Appalachian State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 10th (8th OFF, 12th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 8th (3rd OFF, 10th DEF)
One scary thing: The Mountaineers are starting over under coach Dowell Loggains, most recently the South Carolina offensive coordinator. They’re also losing a really good QB, Joey Aguilar, who now plays for Tennessee. It’s not clear this is a top-half Sun Belt team, and that’s unusual at App.
One exciting thing: Loggains has a nice offensive track record, particularly in helping develop LaNorris Sellers into a star last year in Columbia. I’m intrigued to see how he does with former Vanderbilt and LSU passer AJ Swann, who’s now at a more appropriate competition level.
Player to watch: Middle linebacker Kyle Arnholt (55 tackles) is the man in the middle of a defense that fell apart over the course of last year. App needs defensive stability, and it probably has to come from No. 56.
9. Troy
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th (6th OFF, 10th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 9th (9th OFF, 11th DEF)
One scary thing: The loss of the best receiver in the Sun Belt, Devonte Ross, in a transfer to Penn State will sting. Troy’s better teams in recent years have tended to have a star (running back Kimani Vidal, linebacker Carlton Martial, and Ross are good examples), and this team may not.
One exciting thing: In his second year, coach Gerad Parker has a bit of a foundation in place, with five returning starters on both sides from a team that went 4-8. Quarterback Goose Crowder, formerly of WVU, was supposed to be the guy last year but got injured. He was the team’s most productive quarterback in his limited action, and he should provide a higher floor than Matthew Caldwell did last year.
Player to watch: I expect Troy to lean heavily on Rara Thomas, the former Georgia (and Mississippi State) receiver whom the Dawgs dismissed after a second arrest on domestic violence charges. Another power conference transfer from the Peach State, Georgia Tech running back Trey Cooley, will see lots of carries.
10. Georgia State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th (10th OFF, 11th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 10th (4th OFF, 12th DEF)
One scary thing: The defense was terrible in Dell McGee’s first year, letting up a 44.1% success rate, second-worst in the conference. A handful of the unit’s better players transferred to power conference destinations. It’s unknown if Georgia State will be able to stop anybody at all.
One exciting thing: Receiver Ted Hurst! He might be the best wideout in the league. After transferring from Division II Valdosta State, Hurst gave the Panthers 961 yards and nine touchdowns last year. He’s a deep-ball and contested-catch wizard who had big numbers despite posting a pretty ordinary burn rate of 57%. There aren’t many more fun players to watch at the skill positions in the G5.
Player to watch: It can be nobody other than Hurst, especially because Georgia State’s QB situation is not exciting. (Veteran Christian Veilleux, formerly of Pitt and Penn State, returns.)
11. Arkansas State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 13th (11th OFF, 13th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 11th (1st OFF, 14th DEF)
One scary thing: Again, the whole defense. A 45.2% percent success rate allowed was egregious, and it’s not clear that Butch Jones has put the pieces in place to stop teams going forward.
One exciting thing: Receiver Corey Rucker is Hurst’s competition for the mantle of “best wideout in the Sun Belt.” Along with quarterback Jaylen Raynor, the Red Wolves have the most proven quarterback-receiver duo of any team in the entire Group of Five.
Player to watch: EDGE Bryan Whitehead had four sacks last year. The team’s top 11 tacklers are all gone, leaving Whitehead, the team’s sack leader, as its returning tackling leader, too.
12. Coastal Carolina
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 11th (13th OFF, 8th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 12th (12th OFF, 9th DEF)
One scary thing: The quarterback outlook is somewhat bleak, with a pair of third-school transfers here to fight for the job throughout the season. I am not sure that MJ Morris (via Maryland and NC State) or Emmett Brown (via San Jose State and Wazzu) will improve Coastal’s fortunes.
One exciting thing: The offensive line should be respectable, with four starters back from a pretty solid bunch. One of them is left tackle Nick Del Grande, who’s earned a couple of All-Sun Belt honors in his career. He allowed just two adjusted sacks while playing a team-high 749 snaps last year.
Player to watch: Linebacker Shane Bruce, the team’s leading tackler last year with 75, is one of only three returning starters on defense. He’s been a key contributor for three years under both Jamey Chadwell and Tim Beck. He’s not big, but he’s the most consistent defender the Chanticleers have.
13. Louisiana-Monroe
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th (12th OFF, 5th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 13th (14th OFF, 6th DEF)
One scary thing: Not to be glib about it, but when you’re ULM, virtually anything could go wrong. On this team, I’d worry most about the player I’ll mention next not being able to rein in his interceptions.
One exciting thing: The Warhawks showed a pulse last year when they started 5-1, and they have some important continuity this year with coach Bryant Vincent and sophomore quarterback Aiden Armenta. A bowl – which this program has only made once in its history – is within reach. I like Armenta, who needs to dial back a 6.5% pickable pass rate but makes some high-value plays.
Player to watch: How about two? EDGEs Billy Bullen and Kevontay Wells combined for nine adjusted sacks, and both return. ULM should have one of the better pass rushes in the Sun Belt.
14. Southern Miss
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 14th (14th OFF, 14th DEF)
- 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 14th (13th OFF, 13th DEF)
One scary thing: There’s nothing scary about Southern Miss this year. When you’ve just gone 1-11 and fired Will Hall, nothing can be scary. In comes Charles Huff from Marshall to fix it.
One exciting thing: In general, it’s pretty cool to add most of the good players from your own conference’s champion. Braylon Braxton, the quarterback, is the kind of player who could lead a team to the G5 playoff spot. But Southern Miss would be happy with a bowl game, I’d bet.
Player to watch: Other than Braxton, let’s go with cornerback Josh Moten, another Marshall import. Go and find the video of Moten running stride for stride with Jeremiah Smith last year and intercepting a Will Howard pass intended for the best receiver in the land. Moten might be the best player in the Sun Belt.
Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Sun Belt Predictions: Who Will Take Advantage of a Wide-Open Conference? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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