Super Bowl Showdown: Which Underdog Stars Will Explode When the Patriots Take on the Seahawks in Santa Clara?

Who would’ve thought the underdogs of the 2025 NFL season, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, would be the ones dancing for the Lombardi Trophy this Sunday in Santa Clara? Neither surrounded by the usual hype nor flaunted as surefire champions back in September, these two teams have rewritten the script in a league where parity reigns supreme and hope springs eternal—even for the longshots. So, as the Opta supercomputer crunches the numbers and teases out which players might light up the stat sheets, the burning question remains: who truly has the edge when it comes to seizing football’s grandest prize? Buckle up, because the stats might surprise even the fiercest fans. LEARN MORE.

The Opta supercomputer is guiding us through which players will have the biggest statistical performances and whether the Seattle Seahawks or New England Patriots have the best chance to win football’s biggest game.

Both the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks entered the 2025 season with high hopes, but neither was considered inner-circle title contenders by many analysts. 

In September, most pundits focused their attention on the defending conference champions – the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs – with the Green Bay Packers being a trendy pick after acquiring Micah Parsons shortly before the season. 

The NFL is known as the league of parity, meaning nearly every team enters a new season bursting with hope (apologies to fans of the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns). So after missing the playoffs last season, the Patriots and Seahawks are set to play for the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday in Santa Clara. 

As much as this Super Bowl could be an inspiration to disappointed teams heading into next year, 13 different teams have played in a Super Bowl over the last 15 seasons, with seven of them making multiple appearances.

The Patriots have six Super Bowl appearances since 2011 (including Sunday), while the Kansas City Chiefs have five and the Seahawks are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers with three.

The Seahawks and Pats played one of the most memorable Super Bowls in recent memory in February of 2015, with Malcolm Butler’s iconic goal-line interception sealing New England’s victory and denying Seattle’s bid for back-to-back titles. 

Those teams were led by a deep cast of now-retired stars – from Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Vince Wilfork to Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Richard Sherman – only to be replaced by the current generation. 

After a few years wandering the wilderness, the Patriots appear to have found their next iconic coach-and-quarterback combination in Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, supported by an unheralded defense and group of skill players on offense. 

Opta Supercomputer’s Super Bowl 60 Prediction

Seahawks (52.2% Win Probability as of Thursday)

The Seahawks have rebuilt their identity around an intimidating defense under second-year coach Mike Macdonald, with echoes of the “Legion of Boom” secondary.

On offense, Seattle has been rewarded for trusting in Sam Darnold, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as one of the premier receivers in the league. 

While the New England and Seattle fanbases are no strangers to the Super Bowl, the sport’s biggest stage will be new to almost every player on Sunday. And the Opta supercomputer’s simulations could shed some light on whose star will shine the brightest on Sunday. 

Patriots Player Projections

QB Drake Maye: 21.2 completions on 30.5 attempts for 262.7 yards with 1.4 passing touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions

Maye’s emergence as a star has been the single biggest reason for the Patriots’ turnaround from going 4-13 last season to 14-3 this season. The second-year QB led the NFL in both completion percentage (72.0%) and passer rating (113.5), placing him squarely in the MVP conversation. 

Maye’s numbers, however, have dipped this postseason, and he’s completing just 55.8% of his passes for an 84.0 passer rating in the playoffs. Out of 14 playoff teams, New England ranks 13th this postseason with a pass success rate of 31.8%. 

However, there are some mitigating circumstances to consider. 

The AFC championship game in Denver wasn’t very useful for analyzing Maye’s capabilities as a passer. The combination of treacherous winter weather and the Broncos being forced to start their backup quarterback allowed the Patriots to call a very conservative game. 

He threw for just 86 yards, but his rushing was crucial. He finished with 65 yards, six first downs and a touchdown on the ground. 

While Maye’s postseason numbers don’t jump off the page, he has done enough to help the Patriots win against some of the best defenses in the league. 

The Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos ranked first, third and sixth, respectively, in passer rating allowed, so it was predictable that Maye’s numbers would dip in the playoffs. 

The problem is that Seattle’s defense fits the same profile, ranking fourth in passer rating allowed at 77.9. On passes targeting receivers more than 20 yards downfield, quarterbacks have a 56.6 rating against the Seahawks. 

While Maye could struggle to create big plays downfield, the Patriots can be encouraged that the Matthew Stafford threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns in the NFC championship game, and the Seahawks have just three sacks this postseason. 

It is unlikely that Maye explodes for an iconic performance, but he will have his chances to make his mark on the game, both in the air and on the ground. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: 14.2 carries and 2.7 receptions for 93.6 scrimmage yards and 0.6 touchdowns

There was a lot of preseason buzz about TreVeyon Henderson, and it looked like he could take over as the Patriots’ feature back midway through the schedule. 

But with the season on the line in bad weather, Vrabel only gave the rookie three carries against Denver. As the stakes have gotten higher, Vrabel has trusted more in the veteran Stevenson, who is averaging 17 carries for 64.7 yards in the postseason. 

While Henderson is more explosive, it may surprise some that Stevenson has been more elusive, forcing .255 missed and broken tackles per touch to Henderson’s .154. 

Stevenson is also extremely valuable in the passing game. His 10.85 burn yards per route run led all running backs with at least 15 touches this season, and his 3.6% pressure rate allowed in pass protection is less than half of the NFL average for running backs. 

While Stevenson doesn’t often wow fans with highlight plays or monster statistical games, he has become a vital, all-around contributor to the offense. 

TE Hunter Henry: 4.0 receptions for 51.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns

Unlike the Seahawks, the Patriots don’t have a star wide receiver, and their most valuable pass catcher could come from the tight end position on Sunday.

While Stefon Diggs led New England with 85 catches for 1,013 yards this season, Henry had a career-high 768 receiving yards and led the team with seven touchdown receptions. 

Hunter has been quiet in the Patriots’ last two playoff games, but he played a crucial role in their wild-card round win over the Chargers with 64 receiving yards and a TD.

He could be a pivotal player again in the Super Bowl, as only four teams gave up more receptions to tight ends this season than the Seahawks. Seattle’s 1,080 receiving yards allowed to tight ends were nearly 200 over the league average. 

It is worth noting that Seattle plays in a division with star tight ends Trey McBride and George Kittle, and even Colby Parkinson had a career year with the Los Angeles Rams. 

But the Seahawks played extra defensive backs in nickel or dime packages on 88.2% of snaps this season, and those smaller defenders can sometimes get eclipsed by big tight ends like the 6-foot-5, 249-pound Henry. 

Seattle allowed just 5.4 yards per pass play when the offense was in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers). When offenses put an extra tight end on the field (12 personnel), the Seahawks allowed 6.6 yards per pass play. 

Seahawks Player Projections

QB Sam Darnold: 19.3 completions on 28.3 attempts for 224.5 yards with 1.3 passing touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions

Many teams were skeptical of Darnold at the end of last season after his impressive campaign with the Minnesota Vikings ended with two flops in crucial games. 

It is not surprising, then, that his detractors continued to be unimpressed when Darnold had another rock-solid regular season this year. The real test would have to come in the postseason. 

Darnold didn’t need to do much in the Seahawks’ 41-6 divisional round romp over the 49ers, but he was heroic with 346 yards and three scores in the NFC title game against the Rams. After throwing 10 second-half interceptions in the regular season – tied for the most in the league, Darnold has a 130.6 passer rating in the second half during the playoffs. 

The Patriots have allowed a passing success rate of 41.6%, which is a touch better than average. Darnold likely won’t have a field day, but the Seahawks could have some success throwing the ball.  

RB Kenneth Walker III: 19.2 carries for 91.1 yards and 0.8 touchdowns

For most of the season, Seattle split carries fairly evenly between Walker (1,027 yards) and Zach Charbonnet (12 touchdowns). But Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in the divisional round, leaving Walker as a workhorse for the rest of the playoffs. 

Walker has responded with 178 rushing yards and four touchdowns in two postseason games. 

He’s been a tough runner all season, ranking fifth among backs with at least 75 touches with .276 missed or broken tackles per touch. That’s even with Seattle’s offensive line grading out below average at 2.6 yards per carry before contact. 

Walker has been particularly effective running the ball out of outside zone, or “stretch,” concepts, averaging over 5.1 yards per play on 76 carries. 

However, it could be battle of strength versus strength. The Patriots are excellent at setting the edge and stopping outside zone, allowing a league-low 3.1 yards per carry on stretch plays. 

Walker still has a chance to be among the most impactful players in the Super Bowl, but the Seahawks may want to shift their focus to running inside the tackles. 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 5.9 receptions for 88.0 yards and 0.5 touchdowns

While Smith-Njigba led the team in receiving in 2024, Seattle moved on from three key receiving options in the offseason. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant were all gone after combining for 163 receptions, 2,092 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. 

The answer? Just throw it to No. 11. 

Smith-Njigba responded to the challenge with one of the most productive receiving seasons in NFL history – 119 receptions on 162 targets, 1,793 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns – on an offense that ranked 29th in total pass attempts. 

Smith-Njigba accounted for 44.1% of the team’s receiving yardage. No other player this year was over 37%, and since the AFL-NFL merger, only five players have accounted for a larger portion of their teams’ passing offense: Ken Burrough of the 1975 Houston Oilers (50.6%), Brandon Marshall of the 2012 Chicago Bears (45.7%), Steve Smith Sr. of the 2005 Carolina Panthers (44.8%), Santana Moss of 2005 Washington (44.3%) and Paul Warfield of the 1971 Miami Dolphins (44.3%).   

One of Seattle’s favorite ways to get the ball to JSN is on play-action concepts after selling a hard run fake. He has an astounding 100% burn rate on his 25 targets from play-action concepts, so it’s no wonder why Seattle had a league-best 11.7 yards per play-action pass. 

New England, though, has excelled at defending play-action, allowing 7.1 yards per play. 

Christian Gonzalez and the team’s other cornerbacks have been very good in coverage, leading to a relatively modest projected stat line for JSN. But New England’s linebackers have struggled in coverage at times this season.

If Smith-Njigba can consistently find some space over the middle in the quick and intermediate passing game, he could become the ninth wideout to be voted Super Bowl MVP. 

Data modeling by Opta Analyst’s Kyle Cunningham-Rhoads. For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post Super Bowl Predictions: Which Players Will Shine When the Patriots Face the Seahawks in Santa Clara appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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