The 2025 NFL Rookie Wide Receiver Poised to Shatter Expectations Like Puka Nacua—You Won’t Believe Who It Is

Every year, NFL teams dive headfirst into the draft’s murky waters, on a quest for that elusive late-round wide receiver who suddenly explodes onto the scene—think Puka Nacua, the 2023 fifth-round gem who rewrote rookie receiving records for the Los Angeles Rams. His unlikely ascent from overlooked prospect to breakout star has got everyone wondering: who’s next? For the second straight year, we’re dusting off the playbook, zeroing in on Day 3 draft picks who might follow Nacua’s improbable path. It’s part science, part gut feeling, and a whole lot of hustle—with each prospect’s story stitched together by stats that tell more than just their college résumé. So, can the NFL strike gold again in the later rounds? Let’s dig into the numbers—and the potential sleepers lurking beneath the radar. LEARN MORE.

The value provided to the Los Angeles Rams by 2023 fifth-round pick Puka Nacua has NFL teams seeking a repeat with other wide receivers. For the second consecutive year, we’re analyzing Day 3 draft selections for the potential “next Puka Nacua.”

NFL teams hunt for breakout late-round stars in the draft every year, especially on offense.

Two years ago, the Los Angeles Rams drafted wide receiver Puka Nacua in the fifth round, and he went on to set rookie records for receiving yards in the regular season (1,483) and in a playoff game (181). Across two seasons, he’s caught 184 passes in 28 regular-season games and another 20 in three playoff games.

Last year, we attempted to find the next Puka Nacua from the 2024 NFL rookie wide receivers based on similar parameters. While our hypothesis didn’t bear fruit (yet), the exercise revealed a good basis for how we can try to find another late-round sleeper in 2025.

It didn’t help the exercise last season that eight of the top-10 rookies in receiving yards were drafted in the first two rounds. The closest to a Nacua-esque player were Carolina Panthers undrafted wideout Jalen Coker (478 yards, two touchdowns) and Denver Broncos seventh-rounder Devaughn Vele (475 yards, three TDs).

That production won’t cut it for our analysis in 2025.

So here we go again with specific criteria.

Rule No. 1: Day 3 NFL Draft Pick

This should go without saying, but Day 3 of the NFL Draft is when the real dart throws are taken.

At this point of the draft, teams have passed on taking the available players multiple times and only decided to use a mid- to late-round flier on them. Players drop for plenty of reasons – from production issues to bad measurables to injuries, or a combination of reasons. It’s why Nacua lasted until the No. 177 pick of the 2023 draft.

As such, we’ll only look at NFL rookie wide receivers drafted in the fourth round or later this year, or 18 of 32 overall, so there’s a big pool to choose from:

• Chimere Dike, Tennessee Titans (Round 4, Overall Pick 103)
• Dont’e Thornton Jr., Las Vegas Raiders (Round 4, Pick 108)
• Arian Smith, New York Jets (Round 4, Pick 110)
• Jaylin Lane, Washington Commanders (Round 4, Pick 128)
• Jalen Royals, Kansas City Chiefs (Round 4, Pick 133)
• Elic Ayomanor, Tennessee Titans (Round 4, Pick 136)
• Jordan Watkins, San Francisco 49ers (Round 4, Pick 138)
• KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Los Angeles Chargers (Round 4, Pick 158)
• Tory Horton, Seattle Seahawks (Round 5, Pick 166)
• LaJohntay Wester, Baltimore Ravens (Round 6, Pick 203)
• Jimmy Horn Jr., Carolina Panthers (Round 6, Pick 208)
• Tommy Mellot, Las Vegas Raiders (Round 6, Pick 213)
• Tez Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 7, Pick 235)
• Ricky White III, Seattle Seahawks (Round 7, Pick 238)
• Kaden Prather, Buffalo Bills (Round 7, Pick 240)
• Konata Mumpfield, Los Angeles Rams (Round 7, Pick 242)
• Dominic Lovett, Detroit Lions (Round 7, Pick 244)
• Junior Bergen, San Francisco 49ers (Round 7, Pick 252)

That’s a daunting list of options, but the second rule scales down the wide receivers significantly.

Rule No. 2: Non-Elite College Counting Stats

The hallmark of Nacua’s surprising ascent was his pedestrian college production – particularly in two seasons at Washington before an increase in two seasons at BYU. He never finished a season with more than 48 receptions, 805 receiving yards or six total touchdowns. By statistical measurements, Nacua wasn’t a college star.

This contributed immensely to Nacua lasting until Day 3 of the 2023 draft. He had NFL traits –from 6-foot-2, 205-pound size to strong hands to a high football IQ – just not the stats to support an early round selection.

We’ll apply that idea here and only consider 2025 NFL rookie wide receivers who finished their final full collegiate season with fewer than 60 receptions and/or 900 receiving yards.

Jalen Royals and Tory Horton will be disqualified because their 2024 stats were due to missing games because of injury, not on-field performance, and previous season stats suggest they would have gone past 60/900.

There also isn’t enough data on FCS-level quarterback-turned-receiver Tommy Mellott – the 2024 Walter Payton Award recipient at Montana State – for him to qualify.

So the potential next Nacua would come from the following players:

Rule 3: High Target Rate

While Nacua didn’t put up gaudy college stats, he was heavily targeted in a run-first BYU offense. That scheme led almost directly to his usage on the Rams as a rookie.

A healthy amount of targets basically means a quarterback trusts a receiver’s ability to catch the ball. It also means there’s a lot more opportunity to impact a game than a one-trick pony or gadget-type player.

For this rule, we look specifically at the remaining players’ target rates – how often a pass was thrown their way on a route. Unfortunately, we did not have target rate data for Bergen, who played in the FCS, leaving him disqualified from the candidates list.

Six of the remaining wide receivers had a target rate higher than 21% in 2024, which ranked in the middle of the pack among the 18 Day 3 picks: Dominic Lovett, Chimere Dike, Dont’e Thornton Jr., Kaden Prather, Jaylin Lane and Jimmy Horn Jr.

However, Lovett and Horn pop on this list. Lovett’s 26% target rate is the fourth highest among the Day 3 receivers and first among the aforementioned six. Horn’s 23.8% target rate ranks sixth and second, respectively.

Rule 4: Strong Production on a Per-Route Basis

Unfortunately, Lovett and Horn fall off a bit because of the fourth rule. We want to find a receiver who not only is targeted a lot, but one who catches the passes thrown to him (receptions per route run) and can produce (yards per route run).

Lovett’s 0.164 receptions per route run (RPRR) rank sixth among the initial 18 and second among the remaining six, but his 1.169 yards per route run (YPRR) rank third-to-last among the 18 and second-to-last among the six. Horn has a similar problem with a 0.157 RPRR and a 1.87 YPRR.

Meanwhile, Thornton emerges from the pack: His 0.167 RPRR rank fourth and 4.24 YPRR first among all Day 3 wide receivers.

This is where the final rule comes into play.

Rule 5: Immediate Window to Play

If we’re deciding between Lovett, Horn and Thornton for the next Nacua-type breakout receiver, then the answer is a bit easier.

Nacua immediately saw snaps with the Rams as a rookie because he fit a role vacated by Cooper Kupp’s injury. Lovett, Horn and Thornton don’t have that exact situation on their respective teams, but their current depth charts are vastly different.

Lovett is on the better team (Lions) with the better quarterback (Jared Goff), but at best is fifth on the depth chart behind wide receivers Amon St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick and Khalif Raymond. He will likely start behind third-round rookie Isaac TeSlaa as well. That doesn’t suggest a lot of opportunity for playing time this season.

The Carolina Panthers’ depth chart is similarly packed at wide receiver, albeit with worse players. Veteran Adam Thielen, 2024 first-rounder Xavier Legette and 2025 first-rounder Tetairoa McMillan are the entrenched starters. There’s also Coker, the breakout undrafted player in 2024. If he has a sensational camp, Horn could begin fifth on the depth chart in another tough hill to climb.

Thorton, though, is in a prime position to earn an early role with the Raiders.

There is much more ambiguity among their pass catchers except for tight end Brock Bowers. Jakobi Meyers is a starter, but the rest of the wide receiver order is uncertain with Tre Tucker and second-rounder Jack Bech also projected starters. A good camp or an injury would push Thornton into a prime spot.

Thornton, who had 65 receptions for 1,426 yards and 10 TDs across 38 games at Oregon and Tennessee, benefits from a solid quarterback with the Raiders in Geno Smith and a likely stable running game with 2025 first-round draft pick Ashton Jeanty.

Ultimately, the Raiders’ fourth-rounder is the pick among NFL rookie wide receivers who could have a Nacua-like rise from ambiguity. We’ll see if that prediction pans out for Thornton in the 2025 season.

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