The Game of the Week: Unexpected Moves That Could Change Everything

You ever noticed how coaching a 7th grade basketball team can teach you a thing or two about watching a high-stakes NFL showdown? Crazy, right? Yet here we are, on the verge of a Chiefs vs. Bills clash that feels as unpredictable as those middle school games I’ve been wrangling for years. Both teams have dazzled like champions-in-the-making one week, then left us scratching our heads the next—kind of like watching potential greatness slip through the cracks at the most crucial moments. The Chiefs, with their “everyone loves them” aura, could be undefeated if a couple of bounces went their way. Meanwhile, the Bills have stumbled out of the gate but showed enough resilience to remind us they’re no pushovers. So, the question I’m chewing on: Are these squads truly the elite contenders they appear to be, or just teams riding waves of inconsistency until the real test hits? Tonight’s game might just spill the beans. Buckle up—it’s gonna be a rollercoaster. LEARN MORE.

Chiefs vs. Bills, 4:25 ET

In my free time, I coach my daughter’s 7th grade basketball team. I’ve coached them since 3rd grade, and I coached my son’s team from second grade until he graduated from grade school. You might be wondering what that has to do with a football article, and it’s a good question. Although these teams are not anywhere near the level of professional, I think it is interesting to see how inconsistent teams can be. Being the coach of teams has helped me realize that sometimes just is not there, and other times they are totally locked in. Sure, there are super teams, and there are some players who are just significantly better, but teams are flawed and fluctuate as a season goes on. The Chiefs and Bills have both had moments where they looked like they would be Super Bowl champions, and they’ve both had moments where you wonder if they are actually as good as we thought. The two of them square off tonight.

The Chiefs are everyone’s darling again. They won a few games, and even the loss they had against Jacksonville was an ugly loss, but still one they could’ve won. I’ve made this argument on the Outkick Bets podcast, but the Chiefs could potentially be 8-0 or 7-1 if a couple of plays go the other way. I’m sure the Chiefs haters are going to say they get all the calls and other stuff, but I’ve also brought up over and over again that they do a better job than anyone of being prepared for any “luck” that comes their way. The refs could be favorable to them, but they are also ridiculously well-coached, have a quarterback who is creative, competitive, and has a great arm. They are now at full strength and have put up at least 28 points in each of their past five games. I lost on Monday night with them getting over 29.5 points, nonetheless, the offense is rolling. They did most of their damage in the second half, but once they were locked in, they never looked back. The question can be asked of just how good the Chiefs actually are. Their wins in the last five games: at home against Baltimore, Lamar Jackson was hurt, and their defense was still brutal. At home against the Lions, they received a very generous call to overturn the first touchdown of the game. The past two weeks, they’ve played the Raiders and the Commanders who didn’t have their quarterback. Their only other win this season was against the Giants on the road.

The Bills looked like pure garbage before their bye week. They faced the Patriots and lost a game at home. That’s something they haven’t done in over a year. However, I kind of chalked it up as silly situation where they faced a fired up divisional rival. I thought they just kind of lost focus for the game – again, a situation like with my grade school basketball teams. The next game, they went to Atlanta and lost to a ridiculously inconsistent Falcons team. Atlanta just lost last weekend to the Dolphins. That’s right, a team that beat the Bills lost to the 2025 Miami Dolphins. No one can explain football. The Bills enjoyed a bye week to get themselves back on track before returning last week and dominating a hobbled Panthers team. However, if I am critical of the Chiefs wins, I probably should be critical of the Bills as well. They beat Baltimore in Week 1, but they allowed 40 points, needed an epic comeback, and we’ve seen the Ravens just aren’t that good. The other wins were against the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, and Panthers. I don’t blame them for winning games they should win, but their wins are against teams with a combined record of 10-29. Their losses are to teams with a combined record of 9-6.

To my original point, both of these teams are flawed. Some games they look amazing, and others they look like they would be bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Kansas City does seem to be in better form, and the reality is they probably have had the tougher schedule to this point in the season. The Bills are at home, and they aren’t underdogs there often. I know this game will be close, and I’ll be nervous for most of it, but I like the Chiefs defense better now. It will likely come down to who turns the ball over more, but I’m going to back the Chiefs here. The Bills just haven’t had to be tested much this year.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024