The Hidden Weakness Texas Can’t Afford to Ignore in Week 10 SEC Showdown with Vanderbilt

Is it curious, or downright thrilling, that Vanderbilt football holds the historical edge over Texas with an 8-4-1 record? As these Southeastern Conference titans collide for their 14th face-off this Saturday in Austin, the stakes couldn’t be more towering: a shot at the SEC title game and a leap up the College Football Playoff rankings hang in the balance. Picture the drama—Arch Manning, once the presumed Heisman darling, clashes with Nashville’s own rising star Diego Pavia, each quarterback wielding hopes and hype that ripple far beyond the field. But don’t be fooled into thinking this battle is just a quarterback duel; it’s a cerebral chess match between coaches Steve Sarkisian and Clark Lea, each scheming to outwit the other under the bright Texas sun. For Vanderbilt to topple the Longhorns, they must zero in on a glaring weakness lurking in Texas’s third-down conversions—a puzzle piece that could turn the tide come game day. Ready to dive deeper into this electrifying clash and uncover Vanderbilt’s secret ammo? LEARN MORE.

Vanderbilt football owns an 8-4-1 all-time record against Texas. But the 14th meeting between Southeastern Conference powers on Saturday comes with a higher magnitude. The winner increases its SEC title game appearance chances, while also earning a high College Football Playoff ranking come Tuesday.

All that is on the line in Austin. Both teams bring headline grabbing quarterbacks too in Arch Manning and Diego Pavia. The former once was the heavy favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Yet the latter is garnering Heisman hype on his campus.

Quarterback play isn’t the only must watch showcase at Darnell K. Royal Stadium. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian and Vandy’s Clark Lea likely will have the coaching version of chess going — as one tries to outsmart the other.

But on the side of Vandy, here’s the fatal flaw the Commodores must exploit if they want to knock off Texas.

Vanderbilt can expose offensive flaws here

Vanderbilt edge Miles Capers (29) celebrates sacking Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes during the second quarter at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025. — © Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Opposing defenses clearly don’t fear Manning on the field. He’s delivered up-and-down production including costly turnovers. Manning even scared Texas fans by sustaining a concussion against Mississippi State last Saturday.

Texas welcomed back Manning in practice on Wednesday, however, indicating he’ll be ready to go. Regardless if he plays or not, Vandy can attack this aspect of a Manning-led Texas offense: Third downs.

The QB and the play-calling looks way off this season, with the Longhorns only converting 38.46% of their conversions there. Manning often looks panicked during those moments especially when a rush comes.

Manning’s offensive line isn’t the most athletically gifted across the board — explaining the third down inefficiency. Vanderbilt defensive coordinator Steve Gregory can dip into an aggressive bag here.

Gregory is big on dominating the line of scrimmage and creating stops for a loss. He also turns to man coverage on the backend. Gregory shows high trust in his front six (the base defense is a 4-2-5 look) that knows how to attack the passer. Miles Capers leads the rush here with 4.5 sacks. Then there’s the defensive line trio of Zaylin Wood, Khordae Sydnor and Linus Zunk — all of whom have combined for 12.5 tackles behind the line.

Linebackers Nick Rinaldi and Bryan Longwell will likely play closer to the line and show a potential blitz to throw off Manning or whoever handles the QB1 reins Saturday. Their biggest task along with Gregory is too prevent Manning attacking the running lane down the middle — as the lack of an inside LB creates the gap there. Vandy needs to get QB touches out the gate.

Can Diego Pavia continue Heisman ascension?

Week 10 feels like the prime opportunity for Pavia to seal his Heisman fate, especially against the SEC runner-up of last year.

He’s already a folk hero on the Nashville campus and is a beloved fan favorite. But Pavia can become the frontrunner for the coveted award with one more breakout afternoon.

Pavia walks into one of the more louder environments in all of college football. He already struggled in one hostile place down in Tuscaloosa. Texas fans will aim to get under his skin.

Pavia and Vandy likely needs to pivot toward a silent count on the line. He must take care of the ball too as Texas will aim to force takeaways.

But this matchup feels perfect for Pavia to boost his Heisman chances. He’s backed by a fierce defense that’ll aim to expose the biggest weakness on Texas. Pavia can do the rest from there.

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