The NBA Betting Streak Hangs by a Thread: Will Cavaliers and Jazz Break the Curse Tonight?

Rigged or not, Tuesday’s NBA slate handed me a couple of sweet wins that had me grinning from ear to ear—one a nail-biting squeaker with the Over 229.5 in the Bucks-Knicks game, the other a downright domination as the Warriors steamrolled the Clippers. After starting off the season like a tossed salad, I’m finally cruising above .500 with a tidy profit on my NBA 2025-26 wagers. Sure, I know the universe will want its pound of flesh sooner or later—maybe even the very next night—but, honestly? I feel like I’ve cracked the code sharper than the market itself. You don’t see it in the closing line value? That’s the whole point! These bets, laid out late Tuesday night on X, aren’t just guesses—they’re calculated, savvy plays fueled by deep dives into frontcourts, injury reports, and who’s really bringing fire on the floor. From Cleveland’s imposing big men to Boston’s questionable spacing, and Utah’s sneaky-good start under Coach Hardy, there’s more than meets the eye behind those odds. Plus, with distractions swirling around Portland’s bench and a potential market misread, this season’s shaping up to be one heck of a tactical battle. Curious how it all shakes out? Dive in—because if there’s one certainty in this business, it’s that nothing’s ever quite what it seems. LEARN MORE

Rigged or not, the NBA was profitable for me Tuesday as I cashed both best bets. One was a sweat (the Over 229.5 in the Milwaukee Bucks’ 121-111 win vs. the New York Knicks), and the other was a rocking chair cover (the Golden State Warriors boat-raced the Los Angeles Clippers 98-79).

After a shaky start, I’m now above-.500 with a positive return on investment betting on the NBA 2025-26 season. I’m sure I’ll give it all back eventually. Hell, maybe even Wednesday. But, frankly, I think I’m sharper than the NBA market, and this will be a bounce-back season for me. Even if the “closing line value” for the bets below, or lack thereof, says otherwise.

Both of the bets below were posted on X (@Geoffery_Clark) late Tuesday night on the West Coast.

Cleveland has an elite frontcourt, and Boston doesn’t have a legitimate starting big on its roster. Cavaliers PF Evan Mobley is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and C Jarrett Allen is a former All-Star who had an NBA-best 70.6% field goal rate last season.

Celtics C Neemias Queta wouldn’t start for 27-28 other teams, and Jaylen Brown is their starting power forward, and he’s a “wing.” The two pro-Boston arguments are Cleveland’s injuries and that the Celtics looked good when they beat down the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game. Sure, the Cavs are missing PG Darius Garland, SF Max Strus, and SG Sam Merrill.

However, the Cavaliers still have three All-Stars in their starting 5, including the best player on the floor, Donovan Mitchell, and NOLA sucks, and Zion Williamson didn’t play in the Celtics-Pelicans game. Spida averages 31.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game.

Also, it’s not like the Cavs will be intimidated in Boston. Since 2024, Cleveland is 24-17 against the spread as a road favorite with a +10.4 scoring margin. The Celtics aren’t a title contender this season, but why would the Cavaliers take it easy on them? Brown and Boston SG Derrick White are still there, and it’s still the Celtics. The bottom line is if the Cavs can sh*t on Boston, they will.

Lastly, the Celtics are shooting a ton of 3s, but they aren’t good looks. Boston plays at the second-slowest pace, averages the fewest assists per game, and attempts the third-most 3-pointers per game. That’s bad offense. The Celtics don’t have an actual point guard or someone who can consistently create shots for his teammates.

The “wrong team is favored,” so you can definitely bet Utah’s moneyline, which is currently +125 across the market. But, like a sucker, I bet the Jazz last night at a worse price and I took the points. The only reason the Trail Blazers (who are playing their third game in four nights) are favorites in Utah is because they had a 34.5-win total entering the season, and the Jazz had an 18.5-win total.

Yet, Utah is 2-1 and third in net rating to start the season, and Portland is 2-2 and 12th in net rating. The Trail Blazers beat the Golden State Warriors by 20 points and the LA Lakers without LeBron James and Luka Dončić. The Jazz hammered the LA Clippers in their season opener and the Phoenix Suns in overtime. So, their two wins cancel each other out from a quality standpoint.

That said, maybe the market was wrong about these two teams in the preseason. Utah has the third-best cover rate since hiring head coach Willy Hardy in 2022. This literally means Hardy’s teams exceed expectations more often than not. Believe it or not, the Jazz had a winning record at home in Hardy’s first two seasons.

More importantly, 7-foot Jazz All-Star Lauri Markkanen is the best player on the floor, and he has 6-foot-11 big Kyle Filipowski and 7-foot C Walker Kessler in the starting lineup with him. Portland doesn’t have a lot of elite size on its roster, and Utah’s frontcourt trio brings different things to the table.

Markkanen is scoring 34.7 points per game on .500/.424/.957 shooting. Filipowski is a floor-spacing big who can get long rebounds from missed 3-pointers over the smaller guards on the court. Kessler is your prototypical rim-protecting, rebounding center.

Finally, the Trail Blazers could be a little distracted or disorganized because their head coach, Chauncey Billups, is on indefinite leave due to legal issues and is facing FBI charges of illegal gambling.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here.