The Surprising Teams Poised to Explode If Myles Garrett Hits the Trade Market
Our ELO model assigns a rating to each player. At the beginning of a data set, every player has the same rating. Based on these ratings, each 1-on-1 matchup has an expected result. If two players have the same rating, each is expected to win 50% of the time. If there’s a 100-point difference in the ratings, the higher player is expected to win about 64% of the time.
In our Hutchinson example, Rams tackle A.J. Arcuri has an ELO rating of around 1200 and Hutchinson’s is 1600. A 400-point difference means that we expect Hutchinson to win about 90% of the time. If Hutchinson had been facing Rashawn Slater instead, we would have expected him to only win about 30% of his matchups.
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