The Unseen Danger Lurking Behind Caitlin Clark’s Return to Indiana Basketball

If you told me earlier this season that the Indiana Fever—without their electrifying star Caitlin Clark—would still be hanging tight in the playoff chase, I might have raised an eyebrow. But here we are, and they’ve managed to keep their heads above water despite Clark missing over half their games. How does a team stay afloat when the linchpin is sidelined? It’s not magic—it’s grit, adaptability, and a roster that’s slowly knitting itself into a cohesive unit ready to explode once their superstar returns. The question now is: when Clark steps back onto the court, will the Fever’s momentum ignite into a full-blown surge, making them the nightmare matchup everyone fears come playoff time? If history and recent performances tell us anything, the answer is a resounding yes. LEARN MORE.

The Indiana Fever have kept their heads above water while missing Caitlin Clark. When Clark returns, the team could take a big step forward.

After amassing a 20-20 record in Caitlin Clark’s rookie year in 2024, the Indiana Fever were among the most active teams in the offseason trying to build around their sensational star.

They sit at 15-12 after a win against the Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday night, which doesn’t seem like much of a step forward, but it’s impressive considering Clark has now missed over half the team’s games this season.

The team that was put together to play around Clark had to learn how to play without her and has done that well enough to keep the Fever firmly in the playoff hunt by going 7-7 in the games Clark missed.

But to make any noise in the playoffs, the Fever will need Clark at her best with a team that’s comfortable playing around her. Clark is a singular talent, which makes her one of the most exciting players in the league, but also someone who teammates need to play with to get a feel for her game.

Fortunately, the Fever’s solid play without Clark seems like it can mostly be woven into a game plan that includes her as well. As long as she is healthy and gets some regular-season reps, the Fever could be a team nobody wants to play come playoff time.

Mitchell Momentum

The Fever had a lot of roster turnover ahead of this season, but it was all around top returning players Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston.

Boston has been the perfect third player in the offense. She takes advantage of mismatches and openings when they’re given to her, but doesn’t need a ton of shots to be effective. She doesn’t get enough credit for being an elite passing big who always makes the right plays and is an integral part of punishing a leveraged defense.

But it’s Mitchell who has been the go-to offensive player lately with Clark injured despite a quiet game against the Mercury. She exploded for 35 points in the Fever’s 93-78 win over the Chicago Sky on July 27, nailing seven 3-pointers and dishing out six assists.

The dynamic scoring will get the headlines, but it was encouraging to see another game in which Mitchell utilized her playmaking. She doesn’t have the vision of Clark, but she’s good at making the simple reads and has displayed excellent touch when finding her teammates.

All her passes won’t have this much flair, but it’s nice to see Mitchell engaged with playmaking again. She averaged a career-low 1.8 assists last season as she took a backseat to Clark and Boston in that regard. That number has crept up to 2.8 this year, as Mitchell has flashed her playmaking chops often when Clark hasn’t played.

The Fever need her to tap into that playmaking when Clark returns as well. Mitchell is an electric shooter and scorer, but she needs to take advantage of passing lanes when defenses home in on Clark. The Fever have more firepower around their core this year, giving Mitchell more options when she drives. If she continues to lean into playmaking a bit more when playing alongside Clark, it’ll make the Fever’s offense much more deadly.

Mitchell’s scoring outbursts lately with Clark sidelined might make fans assume that she’s been much better as the primary option, but that hasn’t really been the case. Though her scoring increases without Clark, her efficiency drops – typical when a player has a heavier offensive burden.

The malleability of Mitchell is crucial for the Fever with Clark going in and out of the lineup. She’s capable of being the top option and keeping the offense afloat, but is an excellent complement to Clark when the two play together due to her shooting and dynamism.

Mitchell’s offensive DRIP (the offensive part of our projection of a player’s contribution to a team’s plus/minus per 100 possessions) is fourth-best in the WNBA, while Clark is first.

Simply put, the Fever have one of the best offensive duos in the league and, if Mitchell maintains her higher level of play overall and good enough playmaking when Clark comes back, they’ll be a nightmare matchup for any team in the playoffs.

Defensive Improvement

It’s easy to imagine the best version of the Fever as an offensive juggernaut behind Clark and Mitchell. But the team needed to tighten up defensively to make a real run in the postseason.

Last year, the Fever allowed the second-most points per game in the WNBA. This year, they’ve allowed the eighth-most points per game. They currently rank sixth in defensive TRACR.

It might be tempting to think the team is adopting a more defensive-minded approach without Clark. However, that hasn’t been the case.

The Fever have allowed slightly fewer points per game with Clark out of the lineup (81.5 in games with Clark and 80.9 in games without her), but some of that is because they’re playing at a slower pace. The team is actually holding opponents to a much better field goal percentage with Clark in the lineup. Teams shoot 40.9% against the Fever in games Clark has played compared to 45.7% in games she hasn’t.

Clark gets compared to Stephen Curry a lot, but it’s usually about their offensive games. It’s fair to compare them on defense, too, where both players manage to be better than popular opinion despite shouldering huge offensive burdens.

While Clark may not be a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball, she’s not a liability either. She rates among the best Fever defenders by defensive DRIP.

There shouldn’t be much concern about a steep defensive drop-off when Clark returns. The Fever’s strength defensively will continue to be Boston’s versatility inside, solid play on the wings and a cohesive unit that’s greater than the sum of its parts.

There will still be a feeling-out process when Clark returns, which still seems to be a few weeks away. With all the new players on the roster this year, it’s imperative that Clark gets in a healthy stretch of several games in a row so the team can be fully actualized in the playoffs.

But if that does happen, the Fever still have the potential to be a real threat. The team came into the season with a lot of hype and that’s subsided somewhat due to Clark’s injuries.

But their play without her has shown this roster is very good with a healthy Clark and should complement her well when she gets up and running again.

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The post Fever Dreams: Why Indiana is Still a Threat When Caitlin Clark Returns appeared first on Opta Analyst.