These College Basketball Teams Are Flying Under the Radar—And Could Shake Up the Season!
Isn’t it funny how every college basketball fan base screams “underrated,” yet only a handful actually hit the mark? The AP Polls, much like your in-laws’ opinions at Thanksgiving, are widely accepted — but are they truly reflecting who’s got the goods on the court? Enter TRACR, our nifty net efficiency metric that cuts through the noise, measuring team performance based on who they face and who’s playing. While AP voters and TRACR agree on some obvious heavyweights—Houston, Duke, Michigan—discrepancies reveal some real sleeper teams that deserve more respect. So, which squads have been flying under the radar, quietly outperforming their rankings and ready to shock the NCAA world? Let’s dive in and spotlight the four teams quietly rewriting the script this season. LEARN MORE.
Several college basketball teams’ fan bases claim to be underrated, but only a few are correct. Using TRACR, we identify which teams are better than their AP ranking.
There is a lot that AP voters and TRACR, our net efficiency metric that calculates how well a team performs based on who they play and who is on the court, agree on at this point in the season.
Houston, Duke and Michigan look like elite teams. Nebraska, Michigan State and Iowa State all fall in the 7-15 range. Kentucky’s up-and-down season has them just outside the top 25.
But where’s the fun in talking about agreement? It’s much more interesting to see where there is disparity.
Whether it was a high-profile loss that’s remained on everyone’s mind or a team from a non-power conference that all the voters don’t fully believe in yet, some teams are vastly underrated in the AP Polls based on their TRACR.
Here are four teams that are better than most people (including AP voters) think.
Gonzaga (AP Ranking: 8, TRACR: 1)
If you have an older relative who laments the invention of the 3-point line, point them in the direction of Gonzaga (19-1).
While most teams try to figure out how to take more 3s every game, Gonzaga’s offense starts in the post and rarely extends past the 3-point line. The Bulldogs make just 7.3 3-pointers per game, 252nd most among Division I teams.
Gonzaga is a balanced team, without a truly dominant star but with a nine-man rotation of capable players who all know their roles. The offense starts with Graham Ike, a delightful throwback post player whose approach is emblematic of Gonzaga as a whole.
Ike has some of the best footwork in the NCAA and wants nothing more than to get to his left hand for a layup. When the defense overplays him, he counters with short stepback jumpers. It’s a simple game, but when you combine his elite footwork with touch and athleticism, it’s deadly.
It’s easy to see why TRACR is high on the Bulldogs. Their one loss was an absolute disaster, 101-61 to Michigan, and it got them written off as a top team by a lot of observers.
But if you tuned out after that game, you missed Gonzaga’s response, blowing out Kentucky 94-59 in the following contest. They’ve played three other games against teams that were ranked at the time and beat Alabama, Creighton and UCLA by double digits.
Even with a minus-40 against Michigan, Gonzaga has the fourth-best average margin of victory in Division I. The Bulldogs are tough on both sides of the ball, elite at rebounding (sixth-best rebounding margin in Division I) and sharing the ball (eighth-most assists per game).
The big question for Gonzaga come tournament time will be the lack of 3-point shooting. It’s fun to watch a team succeed with the Bulldogs’ style, but can they handle the variance that comes with several elimination games in a row? When they lost to the Wolverines by 40 points, the Bulldogs were outscored by 30 from the 3-point line (13 made 3s to three).
It would be nice to see Gonzaga’s 3-point rate tick up just a bit before March Madness. Steele Venters is shooting over 40% on 3-pointers and Gonzaga should be able to get more looks from deep off of Ike in the post.
The Bulldogs will never be a high-volume 3-point shooting team, but getting just a few more attempts per game would help mitigate the risk of getting blown out solely on the back of a hot shooting night for the other team.
Even without a bump in 3-point rate, Gonzaga is still an elite team that needs to be recognized as an inner circle contender.
Illinois (AP:11, TRACR: 5)
Understandably, Illinois is 11th in the AP Poll. The Illini (15-3) already have three losses on the season and every team above them has two or fewer.
But the emergence of presumed NBA lottery pick Keaton Wagler has them looking like a title contender. Wagler had an ugly four-game stretch in November in which he averaged just 9.5 points on 36.4% shooting, the nadir of which was when he scored three points in 14 minutes in a 74-61 loss to UConn.
In the 10 games since then, Wagler’s averaged 18.2 points and 5.2 assists per game while shooting 47.8% from the field, 46.2% on 3s and 85.7% from the free throw line. He’s ascended to 14th in WAR and third among freshmen.
Wagler’s a lights-out shooter whose 42.1% on 3s would be even higher if he weren’t on an eternal heat check. He’ll shoot from anywhere and he makes enough from well beyond the line to extend the defense.
As you’d expect from a freshman, there are some inconsistencies to his game. He can struggle with defenders who aggressively challenge his dribble or play him very physically. But he’s a dynamic, multi-faceted player, and Illinois has been a better team since giving him the keys to the offense.
A crucial point in Illinois’ favor, though, is that it isn’t too reliant on Wagler. Kylan Boswell can run the offense as well, and the Illini have five players who average double figures in points.
Zvonimir Ivisic was a big get as a transfer to back up his twin, Tomislav. It gives Illinois 40 minutes of a 3-and-D center with physicality. Andrej Stojakovic and David Mirkovic bring crafty scoring and a willingness to keep the ball moving.
Add it all up, and the Illini are the top team in offensive TRACR in Division I. The bigger question is on the other side of the ball, where Illinois ranks 27th in defensive TRACR.
Zvonimir Ivisic has improved his physicality as the year has gone on, but Illinois still doesn’t get a lot of blocked shots and doesn’t have the individual defenders to handle massive wing scorers (Pryce Sandfort ate them alive to the tune of 32 points when Nebraska beat Illinois on Dec. 13).
Without a true wing stopper, Illinois will have to answer with improved team defense and, of course, simply outscoring everyone. With the amount of weapons the Illini have on offense, they should be considered among the teams with a real shot at winning the national championship.
Louisville (AP: 20, TRACR: 7)
After starting the season 7-0, Louisville has limped to a 6-5 record since. But there are reasons to think the Cardinals are better than that mediocre record suggests.
Four of their five losses have come to teams in the top 30 in TRACR. And four of the five losses have also come without freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr.
Brown was one of the most highly anticipated freshmen coming into the season and although he has struggled with his shot, he’s unquestionably the engine of the Louisville offense. He’s averaging 5.1 assists; no one else has averaged even 3.0.
When Brown plays, Louisville is 9-1 this year with six wins by 25 or more points. The schedule featured plenty of easy games, but also included wins over Indiana and Kentucky.
Brown returned to practice this week and should get some games in before the end of the year, which is crucial for Louisville’s chances of a deep run in March.
Ryan Conwell is Louisville’s best player, but Brown is right there with him as the most important playmaker on the team. If the Cardinals get Brown playing like many thought he would at the start of the season, they’re going to be dangerous offensively.
They’re fourth in Division I in 3-pointers made per game, and pairing Brown with shooters is a nightmare for defenses.
It’s been a tough few weeks for Louisville, but better days could be ahead, and TRACR believes the Cardinals will be a tough out in March.
Saint Louis (AP 24, TRACR 13)
Saint Louis (18-1) lost its only game against a major conference opponent, losing to Stanford 78-77 on Nov. 28.
Usually, TRACR is skeptical of teams with softer schedules. Teams that don’t play other quality opponents have to win games by a ton of points to rank highly, and that’s exactly what Saint Louis has done.
Just three of the Billikens’ 18 wins have been by single digits, and they’re a Stanford 3-pointer with two seconds left away from being undefeated.
It’s fair to have some skepticism about how the Billikens will respond to tougher teams in the NCAA Tournament, but they’re led by the battle-tested Robbie Avila, a fourth-year center who has been a main character in college basketball lore since his freshman season at Indiana State in 2022-23.
Saint Louis is one of the most balanced teams in the country, putting up 91.2 points per game despite Avila leading the team in scoring at 12.8. It also has seven players averaging between 1.5 and 3.9 assists. The Billikens always make the right play on offense and there are several players who can play hero on any given night.
The Billikens are experienced (none of their nine rotation players are freshmen) and well-coached by Josh Schertz, who has gone 92-36 over his last four seasons after going 11-20 in his first year at Indiana State.
There’s no real trick to breaking down Saint Louis’ dominance. The team makes shots all over the court and makes its opponents miss shots all over the court.
The Billikens are seventh in Division I in field goal percentage and 17th in 3-point percentage, first in opponents’ field goal percentage and fourth in opponents’ 3-point percentage. It’s a make-or-miss game and the Billikens make their shots while making sure opponents don’t.
The Atlantic 10 is no joke this year, and Saint Louis still has tough games left, including playing Dayton twice, VCU once more (the Billikens won at VCU 71-62 on Jan. 7) and the final game of the regular season at George Mason.
But with a talented and experienced roster, the Billikens have a chance to prove they are the class of the A-10 and maybe even something much more.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Which College Basketball Teams Are the Most Underrated in the AP Polls? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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