These Senators Stay Untouched as Government Shutdown Throws Others Into Chaos—Find Out Who and Why

Ah, the dawn of a new season—full of hope, dreams, and that ever-elusive magic every team chases. But let’s be real: how often do “bad” teams actually ride that spark all the way to glory? Maybe once a decade? Tonight, we’ve got two squads flailing out of the gate—the Ottawa Senators and the Buffalo Sabres—each desperate for a turnaround. The Sens showed promise last year but have stumbled early, especially with defense leaking goals and star Brady Tkachuk sidelined. Buffalo? Well, they’ve been stuck in a dark offensive drought, barely scratching the net in three games. The question isn’t just who’ll win but whether this game can be the wake-up call both teams so badly need. With Ottawa’s goalie Merilainen stepping in, can they finally clamp down? Or will the Sabres’ offense find its long-lost mojo? If you’re like me, you’re already smelling a value play brewing amid the chaos… LEARN MORE.

Senators vs. Sabres, 7:00 ET

You have to love the beginning of seasons. Everyone has hopes that they can have magic happen, and they can make a good run to start their year. Unfortunately, the reality is that most teams, even with some early-season hope, have to realize they are not going to make the run they are hoping for. Even with a good start, how many “bad” teams will ride that stretch into the postseason or playoffs? Maybe one per decade or so? There are two teams off to bad starts playing today as the Senators take on the Sabres, but it still presents us with an opportunity to make money.

The Senators had a nice season last year, reaching the playoffs with a solid 45-30-7 record and 97 points overall. In the first three games of the season, Ottawa has only gone 1-2-0. They haven’t had an easy schedule. They opened the season with a win over the Lightning on the road, then dropped a game to the Panthers, and lost after hosting the Predators. The biggest issue is that the team is stopping no one from finding the back of the net. They have allowed at least four goals in each of the first three games. They’ve also struggled to score outside of the first game. In the opener, they got five goals, and have only scored three in the two games since. It doesn’t help that Brady Tkachuk is also going to miss a month. This is not the start the team was looking for. Tonight, the Senators send Leevi Merilainen to the crease in hopes of stopping the Sabres. In limited opportunities last season, he was very successful. He was 8-3-1 with a 1.99 goals against per game average and three shutouts. He also had a .925 save percentage.

Buffalo did not have a good season last year, and I’m not sure they are going to have a good campaign this year. Their record last year was 36-39-7, coming out to 79 points. That put them as the seventh-worst team in the league. Their defense to begin the year has been decent enough, but the offense has been abysmal. In three games, they have a total of two goals. That’s not a typo; they have lost 4-0, 3-1, and 3-1. Holding opponents to three or four goals in a game should at least give you a chance most of the time. Obviously, they won’t be that bad all season, and if it were a random three-game stretch of the year, most people probably wouldn’t care or even notice the performance. They are taking 29 shots per game, which is pretty good, but they have to make sure they are better quality. They are likely to have Alex Lyon in the net tonight. As mentioned, he has been fine overall, giving up 2.73 goals against per game, and posting a .919 save percentage. He has allowed eight goals in three games, again, doing enough to keep them in the game. He faced Ottawa twice last year. In the first game, he was only in for one period before he left with an injury. In the second game he allowed three goals in a little more than one period before he was removed.

This is a game that could be looked at as a get right for both teams. The Senators have struggled stopping their opponent on defense, and the Sabres need to get their offense going. The problem is that the Senators are a better team than the Blues. I’m a bit surprised that we have Ottawa at a -120, and I think that is a good value on them for tonight’s game. I do think the under 6.5 makes a lot of sense as well, but it seems a bit juiced at the moment. I’ll back Ottawa to win this one against the struggling Sabres.

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