This Tourney Championship Could Defy All Expectations—Here’s Why No Blowout Is Coming

Tonight’s matchup between Gonzaga and Michigan at 9:30 ET isn’t just another game—it’s a collision of two unbeaten squads fighting for early-season supremacy, and honestly, it’s been a rollercoaster watching Gonzaga flip from underdog to favorite. Why does a team built with a quirky roster—four forwards, no true center, and a bunch of guards—hold such sway over the betting lines? Meanwhile, Michigan’s rise from Juwan Howard’s turbulent tenure to a powerhouse ready to punch its ticket to championship glory raises an eyebrow or two. Can these mirror-image squads, both led by their dynamic forward duos, break past the mold—and more importantly, will this game serve up a blowout or a gritty, bucket-by-bucket slugfest? I’m betting on the latter, and maybe the total points will stay under 161.5 unless we slip into overtime drama. Either way, it’s must-watch hoops with a hint of unpredictability—exactly what early season basketball should be about. LEARN MORE

Gonzaga vs. Michigan, 9:30 ET

If you haven’t been watching the Players Era Festival taking place in Las Vegas, you’ve missed out on some of the best basketball of the early season. Almost every team has been a ranked team, many games have been tight and hard fought, and we see some of the better teams, but more unknown players in this year’s class. Duke, with Cam Boozer, and BYU, with AJ Dybantsa, are not in the tournament, for example. But, tonight, for the championship, we get two unbeaten teams as Gonzaga takes on Michigan.

Gonzaga comes into the game with a 7-0 record and opened the game as an underdog. They have since flipped to a favorite, but you could also make a minor case that this game has gone from a pick’em in slight favor of Michigan, to a pick’em in slight favor of the Bulldogs. Either way, it should be fun to see how this plays out. For the season, Gonzaga has beaten Creighton, and took down Arizona State in Arizona. During this tournament, the Bulldogs opened with an easy win over Alabama. They then beat Maryland yesterday in what was a pathetic game. This was an opportunity for Gonzaga to assert their dominance, and that’s precisely what they did. For the season, it is no surprise, but Graham Ike, a senior forward, is leading the team in scoring and rebounding. This is a surprisingly balanced team considering they only have four forwards listed on their roster and no true center. The rest of the team are classified as guards. Braden Huff, a junior forward, is part of the Gonzaga twin towers, which seems like a calling card of their roster construction over the past few years. He is averaging 16 points, just one shy of Ike.

Michigan has looked great to start this year, but I just want to call out this program a bit. For whatever reason, when they had Juwan Howard, they were terrible. They took a good step forward last year, and now they are ranked, undefeated, and playing for a tournament championship. Was Howard the problem? Did his recruits finally get it after he left? I am genuinely curious because I did expect him to turn around their basketball program a bit. In any case, this is probably the best team that Michigan has had to face this year. They had a bit of a scare early in the season as they beat Wake Forest in overtime at a neutral site, but it really should’ve been a home game for the Wolverines as it was in Detroit. They beat TCU on the road in another close game. Then they took down Middle Tennessee. In this tournament, they have had two blowouts. They crushed San Diego State by 40 points. Then they beat Auburn by 30 yesterday.

I am very hopeful this game will not be a blowout. I do think there is a pretty good advantage for Gonzaga in this one and expect them to win the game. I am not always with the line movement, but in this one, I understand it. Michigan is definitely good, but I don’t really think they are as tested at this point as Gonzaga. I’m not going to take the Bulldogs though, mostly because I feel like both of the teams are constructed so similarly. Two forwards lead the way, and the rest of the game comes down to guards. I don’t expect both teams to get around 80 points though unless we get overtime. This won’t be a blowout, it will be a tightly contested game where teams fight for each bucket. Give me the under 161.5.

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