Thursday Night Showdown: Can the Commanders Silence the Packers’ Home Crowd Surge?

Thursday Night Football lights up with a marquee NFC showdown as two preseason favorites to claim Super Bowl 60 collide: the Green Bay Packers (1-0) welcome the Washington Commanders (1-0) to Lambeau Field. Both squads made a statement last week—Green Bay steamrolled the Detroit Lions 27-13, while Washington dismantled the hapless New York Giants 21-6. But here’s the kicker: with both teams eyeing that ultimate prize, which side truly flexed its muscle? Is it possible the Packers’ unexpected dominance over a favored Lions squad says more than the Commanders’ win over a team everyone expected to stumble? I’m gearing up to back the home favorites—because when Thursday night prep time shrinks, coaching prowess shines brightest—and Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur has built a fortress at home. Meanwhile, the Commanders boast a rising star in QB Jayden Daniels, and the betting public seems smitten. So, who’s got the edge when the spotlight hits? Let’s break down why this duel might just be the season’s most intriguing early thriller. LEARN MORE.

Two preseason NFC contenders to make Super Bowl 60 play on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 2 as the Green Bay Packers (1-0) host the Washington Commanders (1-0). Both drilled their Week 1 opponents: Green Bay boat-raced the Detroit Lions 27-13, and Washington destroyed the lowly New York Giants 21-6. 

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Call me “Mr. Thursday Night Football” because I’m 15-2 on my Circa Million NFL handicapping contest picks for Thursday Night Football games since 2023. This doesn’t count towards that record, but last Thursday, I got dumb-lucky when cashing my Under 47.5 in the Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles bet for OutKick’s Newsletter pick of the day. 

I’m going to the betting window for this game because the coaching matchup fits my successful Thursday Night Football betting system, the Packers are one of the best home teams in the NFL, and the Commanders may close as a public ‘dog. 

First of all, I almost always back the better coach on Thursday Night Football because the shorter prep time hurts the weaker coach. With that in mind, Dan Quinn’s teams are 2-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on Thursdays, whereas Green Bay is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS under head coach Matt LaFleur. The Packers are 35-10 SU and 28-17 ATS as a home favorite in the LaFleur era. 

Also, Green Bay’s Week 1 victory was more impressive. Both won by nearly the same margin, but the Giants were projected to finish last in the NFC East entering this season, while Detroit was the betting favorite to win the NFC North. No one was surprised to see the NYG lay an egg last week, yet the Packers’ crushing of the Lions was unexpected. 

Furthermore, after acquiring All-Pro Micah Parsons, Green Bay’s defense could be a top-five unit in football. If everything breaks right for Washington’s defense, its ceiling is top-10 to 15. Yes, the Commanders shut down the Giants Sunday. However, the NYG suck, and the Packers held the Lions, who had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season, to 3.8 yards per play last week. 

Lastly, according to Pro Football Focus, more bets and money are on Washington at the time of writing. Granted, I don’t bow at the altar of betting splits, but I like to be on the same side as the sportsbooks whenever possible. Plus, it makes sense that the public will back the Commanders because QB Jayden Daniels is a stud, and they were in the NFC championship last season. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.