Thursday Night Showdown: Can the Underdog Dolphins Upset the Bills in Week 3’s Most Electrifying Clash?

So here we are, staring down the barrel of Buffalo Bills hosting the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football—a classic mismatch on paper, right? Buffalo’s cruising at 2-0, Miami’s stumbling at 0-2, and the spread’s ballooned from an -8.5 to a hefty -12.5. But tell me—could the Dolphins be quietly lurking as the perfect underdog against a Bills squad that leans heavily on Josh Allen and feels a tad threadbare beyond him? I’m tempted to fade the Bills for a third straight game, not because Miami’s flawless, but because motivation runs deep when jobs are on the line. Plus, if a few timely stops and a dropped pass sneak in, those pesky Dolphins might just keep it close or even cover. The math’s simple—Buffalo might win big but fail to cover, and that, my friends, is where the real bet lies. Curious how this dogfight will shake out? Dive into the full breakdown and get the nitty-gritty. LEARN MORE.

Surely, I can’t lose fading the Buffalo Bills (2-0) for a third straight game, right? They host the Miami Dolphins (0-2) on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 3. These teams have gotten off to completely different starts. Buffalo miraculously came back to upset the Baltimore Ravens 41-40 in Week 1, while Miami got destroyed, 33-8, by the Indianapolis Colts. 

Then, the Bills boat-raced the New York Jets 30-10 last week, whereas the Dolphins lost a 33-27 nail-biter to the New England Patriots. That, combined with their performances in the first two weeks, has led the Bills to go from an -8.5 favorite on the preseason line to -12.5 at DraftKings as of Wednesday afternoon. 

With that in mind, this spread has gone too far. The Dolphins still have game-breakers on offense and game-wreckers on defense, and Buffalo doesn’t have much talent aside from reigning NFL MVP, Josh Allen. Moreover, Miami has an edge in motivation, as several jobs, including those of head coach Mike McDaniel and QB Tua Tagovailoa, could be on the line. 

One of my buddies, who is a made man in the Bills Mafia, asked, “How many stops do the Dolphins get?” His point was they can’t stop Allen and Co., which is a fair point, considering how badly Miami’s defense has played in the first two weeks. But that nudged me towards betting the Dolphins because, as double-digit underdogs, they only need a few defensive stops to cover the spread. 

These stops could include a dropped pass by Buffalo on third down, a drive-killing offensive penalty, and a couple of defensive plays by Miami, which still has a good but underperforming defensive front, featuring Chop Robinson, Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips, and Zach Sieler. Hopefully, one of these guys will start playing up to their standard, eventually. 

Either way, the math is simple for the Bills breezing past the Dolphins, but not covering the spread. Let’s say Buffalo scores six times in 11-12 drives, with three touchdowns and three field goals, equaling 30 points. All Miami would need to do is score four times, with two touchdowns and two field goals, to cover. 

They have the offensive talent to keep this within one score, or sneak in the backdoor if the Bills have a big lead and take their foot off the gas. Miami RB De’Von Achane and WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are still elite weapons. Furthermore, after no-showing in Week 1, Tua completed 26-of-32 passes for 315 yards with two touchdowns and one interception last week. 

Also, the Bills got gashed by the Ravens in Week 1. Albeit, Miami’s offense isn’t as lethal as Baltimore’s. Yet, Buffalo’s defense is missing two starters, LB Matt Milano and DT Ed Oliver, and No. 1 CB Taron Johnson is playing through a leg injury. Plus, the Dolphins have mostly the same playmakers as they did when they were the second-highest scoring team in the league in 2023. 

Finally, despite the Bills winning six straight games against the Dolphins, these games have been within reach. Five of the seven career meetings between McDaniel and Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott have been one-score games.

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