Tulane’s Stunning Defeat at UTSA Exposes Shocking Flaws Threatening the American Conference’s College Football Playoff Hopes

Could you imagine a service academy crashing the College Football Playoff party? Well, as we inch toward November, Navy stands sturdier than any non-power conference contender to claim a spot in the revamped 12-team bracket. Tulane, once undefeated in the American Conference, stumbled hard against UTSA, shaking up the playoff math. Now, with the Green Wave dropping another, Navy finds itself a game clear of six rivals tucked behind them in losses. The Midshipmen, holding the rare distinction of being unbeaten in their league this season, face a gauntlet ahead — a brutal November stretch against contenders like Notre Dame and Memphis that will truly test their mettle. Meanwhile, the landscape of college football is shifting; the Pac-12’s exit thinning the ranks of power conferences, leaving the American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and others vying for that coveted at-large slot. With Boise State lurking in the Mountain West and James Madison rising in the Sun Belt, it’s a chaotic scramble where any slip could be fatal. The American Conference prides itself on parity and weekly thrills, but will that rollercoaster be enough to secure a playoff birth for a service academy? That’s the million-dollar question we’re all itching to see answered. LEARN MORE

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As November approaches, Navy is now in the best position of any non-power conference team to make the 12-team field at the end of the season. Tulane, the only other team undefeated in American Conference play through the first two months of the season, lost 48-26 at UTSA on Thursday night as former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff got benched.

The Green Wave’s loss leaves Navy a game ahead in the loss column of six other teams in the American as Week 11 begins. The Midshipmen are the only non-power conference team without a loss all season. And now that Tulane has lost a second game — the Green Wave lost 45-10 to Ole Miss in September — No. 25 Memphis and North Texas are the only two teams in the conference with one loss overall.

In case you’re unfamiliar with the 12-team format as it enters its second season, the top five conference champions in the final College Football Playoff rankings are guaranteed a spot in the field. Thanks to the Pac-12’s dissolution at the end of the 2023 season, just four power conferences remain in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. That means at least one team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt is guaranteed a spot in the field.

After the Mountain West’s Boise State was the obvious non-power conference playoff candidate a season ago (the Broncos finished the season ahead of both Big 12 champion Arizona State and ACC champion Clemson in the rankings after going undefeated), the American has looked like the obvious conference to get a team in the playoff for weeks. South Florida demolished Boise State at home in Week 1 and then beat Florida on the road in Week 2.

But the Bulls don’t have much margin for error after losses to Miami and Memphis, the only American Conference team currently in the AP Top 25.

Neither does Navy.

The Midshipmen have been fantastic this season. Navy is averaging over 37 points per game and 7.6 yards per play. Only USC averages more yards per snap. But the best team Navy has played this season is a Temple team that lost 42-3 at home to Oklahoma. And the Owls nearly beat Navy in a 32-31 home defeat a month later.

Navy also has an incredibly tough schedule in November. The Midshipmen visit North Texas on Saturday before traveling to Notre Dame. Then there are games against South Florida and Memphis before, potentially, the American title game. The combined record of those four teams: 25-6.

Memphis and Tulane, meanwhile, still have to play each other Nov. 7.

It’s not unfathomable to think that the parity at the top of the conference could end up hurting it in the playoff race. After losing to USF, Boise State’s only other loss is to Notre Dame and the Broncos could easily run the table in the Mountain West again. If Alabama’s Week 1 loss to Florida State can be discounted, why can’t Boise State’s season opener?

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And in the Sun Belt, James Madison is the favorite at 7-1 and the Dukes’ only loss this season is to a Louisville team that took down Miami. There are playoff contenders emerging outside of the American as the conference’s top teams could beat themselves up.

The American is by far the fifth-best conference in college football. And it’s producing entertaining games on a weekly basis. But that may not be the best recipe for getting into the playoff for the first time in four seasons.