Unbelievable NFL Week 14 Picks: How a Bettor’s 60% Success Rate Could Make You Millions

Clutch time is here, folks — the NFL’s “Fourth Quarter” segment of Circa Million VII launches in Week 14, turning up the heat for those still chasing glory in what’s become a nail-biter of a season-long contest. Now, while many are just hoping to stay engaged, I’m fortunate enough to be sitting comfortably at 40-26, just a game shy of breaking into the money and still within striking distance of the top spot. Riding high on an eight-week winning streak and cashing in nearly house money thanks to my “Geoffrow Records” entry’s late surge, I’m primed to make Week 14 count big-time. So, buckle up: I’m about to lay down my NFL Week 14 card — ranked by confidence, from the surest play to the speculative long shot. Ever wonder how a few injuries and special teams blunders can turn a game on its head? Or why sometimes the betting market gets it dead wrong? Let’s dive into the chaos and triumphs of this pivotal week. LEARN MORE.

It’s officially “clutch time” in the NFL regular season with the “Fourth Quarter” contest of the Circa Million VII kicking off in Week 14. This is a way to keep people who don’t have a chance to cash in the season-long contest engaged. Luckily, that doesn’t apply to me. I’m 40-26 entering Sunday in Week 14, eight games back of first and one game outside the money (top-100).

Even better, I’m almost playing with house money after my “Geoffrow Records” entry tied for fifth in the “Third Quarter” contest with 10 people. The 11-way chop netted me $910, and the Circa Million is $1,000 per entry. But I’m on an eight-week winning streak, and looking to do more damage in this contest. Without further ado, here is my NFL Week 14 card.

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

My fair price for this game is “Rams -11.5,” so I’m way off-market. And that was before Arizona’s final injury report was released Friday. It’s so long it would be quicker to tell you who is playing for the Cardinals rather than who isn’t. Now, the only way Arizona keeps this within 10 points is if unpredictable things happen like injuries, random turnovers, and special teams blunders.

Thursday Night Football continues to be a cash cow for me. I’m now 20-3 on TNF games used in the Circa Million contest since 2023 after Detroit beat Dallas 44-30 this past Thursday. There was no luck involved either; according to Pro Football Focus’s Timo Riske, the Lions beat the Cowboys 33-24 on the “noise-canceled score,” which looks at raw efficiency.

The wrong team is favored here. Miami closed as -2.5 home favorites in a 27-21 win over NYJ in Week 4. But the Dolphins had every situational edge, including an extra rest and prep off a Thursday-night cover vs. the Buffalo Bills the week prior. Even with Miami WR Tyreek Hill on the field, the Jets “won the box score”: 7.1-5.4 in yards per play and converted four more first downs (23-19).

Furthermore, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa in the Northeast in December is always a question, and his current win streak isn’t impressive. Tua hasn’t thrown for more than 173 passing yards in any of Miami’s three straight wins, and I trust Jets QB Tyrod Taylor more than Tagovailoa right now, especially with how this matchup played out earlier this season.

Lastly, the Jets have a massive edge on special teams. Pro Football Focus ranks the NYJ’s special teams fourth in the NFL, which makes them underrated, while Miami’s special teams is the 30th-graded unit. Defense wins championships, but special teams win games. Especially, tight, cold-weather divisional games between teams with below-average passing attacks.

I’ve had a good read on both of these teams all year. I’m 4-0 betting on or against Green Bay in Circa and 4-1 on Chicago, and this sets up as a spot to fade the Packers after everything broke perfectly for them in their 31-24 win in Detroit Thanksgiving.

More importantly, the betting market continues to disrespect the Bears. They are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) but are still power-rated worse than a league-average team. Here’s an idea: Maybe Chicago is good. Bears QB Caleb Williams has improved under rookie head coach Ben Johnson, an offensive whiz who stopped Caleb from taking stupid sacks and has revamped their blocking.

In contrast, Green Bay is 5-7 ATS, yet has been upgraded nearly two points since the start of the season by respected NFL analysts, such as Aaron Schatz, Pro Football Focus, etc. Also, the Packers have only covered a spread higher than -3 once all season: 1-6 ATS in those spots with weird losses to the Cleveland Browns (13-10) and Carolina Panthers (16-13).

Ultimately, Green Bay has the fourth-highest rushing rate in the league, and it’s tough to win by 7+ points if you aren’t airing it out. Plus, Green Bay QB Jordan Love looks like a superstar one week and a league-average starter the next. That inconsistency with a -6.5 favorite feels like another “sell-high” spot for the Packers.

This is a “good news, bad news” situation. Bad news: Washington announced Friday QB Jayden Daniels will return this week, after I submitted my five NFL Week 14 picks for the Circa. Good news: Since Thursday’s release locks in all the spreads, the Commanders will likely be a top-five consensus pick, which typically doesn’t perform well.

Nonetheless, Minnesota is at the bottom of my Circa card because I knew Daniels could play Sunday, and if he did, Washington would close as road favorites. Yet, as I wrote and said on my OutKick Bets podcast and VSIN’s TV channel, the Vikings at a pick ‘em was one of my first bets placed this week, and I’m hoping Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense rattles a rusty Daniels.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.