Unbelievable Twist in NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks: Both LA Teams Face Unexpected Fate!

Week 2 of the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest felt like a perfect storm of Murphy’s Law — every call went against me, and the refs sure didn’t help in those gut-wrenching Broncos and Saints losses. Sometimes, you just have to look the scoreboard in the eye and admit: some picks were flat-out awful. Yet, here I am, fired up and angrier than ever, because let’s be honest — my best handicapping comes when the frustration hits peak levels. Backed by solid matchups, coaching nuances, and historical trends, this week’s slate offers a cocktail of intriguing value and contrarian angles that might just be the shot in the arm I need to shake off a rough start. Plus, the Circa Survivor’s still in play, so the grind continues, spotlighting my top Week 3 confident bets that might flip the script. Ready to dive in? LEARN MORE.

Nothing went right in Week 2 of the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. It was Murphy’s Law on full display. The refs screwed me in the Denver Broncos’ 29-28 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and in the New Orleans Saints’ 26-21 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. I don’t have an excuse for my other two losses. They were just bad reads.

Yet, I’m still peak-angry at the NFL this week, and I do my best handicapping when I’m mad. Backed by matchups, coaching edges, and historical betting trends, this week’s card has the mix of sharp value and contrarian spots I need to climb out of the middle of the pack. Plus, I’m still alive in the Circa Survivor, and I give out my pick for NFL Week 3 at the bottom.

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

Since trading for QB Matt Stafford in 2021, the Rams have made me more money than any team in the NFL. I picked LAR to win the 2022 Super Bowl, which they did, and invested in the Rams in 2023 when everyone left them for dead after 5-12 the season after winning the championship.

They were my only winner last week, and I’m rolling with my Rams again in this revenge spot because, as I wrote Friday, they will be a better team than Philly by the end of the season. LAR’s passing attack, coaching, and pass rush make them my second-best team in the NFC behind the Green Bay Packers.

I’m calling “bullsh*t” on Denver’s defense. The Broncos stomped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-7 in Week 3 last season. Otherwise, they’ve gotten lit up by every other good offense they’ve faced. (I’m not counting the Kansas City Chiefs because they haven’t been a good offense since 2023). Last week, Colts QB Daniel Jones, who we still don’t know if he’s any good, gained 473 total yards.

The Broncos gave up 41 points to the Ravens in Week 9 (loss) last season, 32 to the Browns and QB Jameis Winston in Week 13 (win), 31 to the Chargers in Week 16 when they finally started passing more (loss), 30 to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 (loss), and 31 to the Buffalo Bills in the 2025 AFC wild-card round (loss).

More importantly, I’m a “Jim Harbaugh Guy,” and he and Chargers QB Justin Herbert are a top-five coach-QB combo in the NFL. Herbert has an underrated WR corp, a solid offensive line, and Harbaugh is letting him air it out this season. I’m a little concerned about Chargers EDGE Khalil Mack‘s injury, but LAC has good players on every level of the defense and are well-coached.

Cleveland’s 41-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 wasn’t as bad as the final score indicates. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Baltimore only won the “noise-canceled score,” 23-18. The Browns held the Ravens to 4.6 yards per play and 12 non-penalty first downs. Derrick Henry only rushed for 23 yards on 11 carries, and Myles Garrett sacked Lamar Jackson 1.5 times.

Baltimore had four scoring drives of 36 or fewer yards with a blocked punt and a defensive score. Granted, Green Bay’s defense looks nasty through the first two weeks and can certainly duplicate Baltimore’s defensive effort vs. the Browns. But -7.5 is a big number on the road against a Cleveland defense that could be a top-five unit in football.

The Packers were -5.5 on the preseason look-ahead line. And while I agree with increasing Green Bay’s power rating, we might be getting 1-1.5 points worth of value on the Browns after their misleading blowout loss to the Ravens Sunday. If Packers head coach Matt LaFleur rolls out a vanilla game plan and the Browns don’t turn the ball over, Cleveland can keep this a one-score game.

This is the first bet I made for NFL Week 3, and I gave it out in the OutKick Newsletter Wednesday. Here’s what I said in the newsletter:

“Because Cincy has too many exploitable weaknesses (bad defense, offensive line, and rushing attack while starting a backup QB Jake Browning), the Vikings should be at least -4 favorites considering their coaching edge (Minnesota head coach, Kevin O’Connell, and defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, over Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor), despite them starting a second-string quarterback (Carson Wentz), too.

Believe it or not, the Panthers were -1.5 favorites for this game on the preseason look-ahead line. However, after Carolina fell to 0-2, which was expected since it was an underdog in both games, the line shifted 7.0 points toward Atlanta. Essentially, I’m betting this is an overreaction.

Also, it’s profitable backing 0-2 teams, historically. Since 2015, 0-2 home underdogs are 16-7 against the spread (ATS) in Week 3. Those home ‘dogs are 5-1 ATS in division games over that span, too. The 1-1 Falcons could’ve won their first two games, but both teams are 1-1 ATS. So, how much better is Atlanta

The Falcons lost a must-win game to the Panthers 44-38 at home in Week 18 last season. Atlanta was a -9 favorite for that game, and these teams have the same rosters and coaching staffs. Carolina is missing two starting offensive linemen, C Austin Corbett and RG Robert Hunt. But those guys didn’t play in last season’s finale either.

Furthermore, the Panthers were missing RB Chuba Hubbard for that game, and WR Tetairoa McMillan is a rookie. Hubbard rushed for 1,195 yards in 15 games last season. McMillan was the eighth pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and PFF has him as the 12th-highest graded wide receiver in the league through the first two games.

Everyone is poo-pooing Carolina’s backdoor cover as a -7 underdog vs. the Arizona Cardinals last week, and maybe that’s the correct takeaway. Or maybe Panthers QB Bryce Young just needed to see the ball go through the hole, so to speak. He balled out against the Falcons in Week 18 last season, scoring five total touchdowns (three passing and two rushing).

My survivor partner, David Troy, and I locked in our pick while recording this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast Wednesday. Admittedly, I’m not as confident about this pick after seeing Tampa Bay will be without three starting offensive linemen. But, hopefully, this makes the Bucs less popular in the contest.

Regardless, Baker Mayfield has turned himself into a top-10 NFL quarterback since joining Tampa, and NYJ’s defense gave up 32 and 30 points in losses to Pittsburgh in Week 1 and Buffalo last week. If those teams can score 30+, Baker, with his weapons, should score in the mid-20s Sunday. If Mayfield gets out-dueled by Jets backup QB Tyrod Taylor, so be it.

Our honorable mentions for this week’s pick were the Bills and Seattle Seahawks over the Saints. We ruled out the Bills because there will be plenty of spots to use them this season. Seattle got nixed because I give New Orleans a better chance of winning this week than the Jets. Lastly, the Buccaneers play a first-place schedule, so there aren’t many more places to use them.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.