Unbelievable Upsets Loom? 3 College Football ‘Locks’ That Could Shatter Indiana-Oregon, Florida-Texas A&M, Iowa-Wisconsin Predictions

Alright, so here we are barreling into Week 7 of college football with that mix of confidence and caution — you know, that itch you get when you’re pretty sure you’ve cracked the code, but somewhere deep down, the grizzled vet in you whispers, “Hold up, what if it all blows up in your face?” Usually, my early-season bets get chopped down to size, but this year? I’m sitting at a solid 6-3, and believe me, I didn’t just guess — I’ve been grinding through numbers, breaking down matchups like a mad scientist in the lab. Indiana’s lookin’ like the Cinderella story nobody saw coming, and yes, I’m buying what Coach Cignetti’s selling, even if it feels like a trapdoor waiting to snap shut. Meanwhile, amid upsets and shaky offenses, the lines are set and the angles crisp — so the real question is: when does confidence cross the line into hubris, and can my picks hold up long enough to keep the streak alive? Buckle up, because this ride might get bumpy, but hey — fortune favors the bold, right? LEARN MORE.

While “locks” is a strong term, I’m feeling pretty confident in my college football handicapping entering Week 7. Typically, my early-season excitement is tempered after losing at college football betting, and then I parachute into the postseason, which usually doesn’t go well either.

That said, I’m 6-3 in my college football bets this season, and I’m confident I can keep pace for at least another week. I spent a lot of time in the lab cooking these bets up, and I showed my math.

That said, if these picks lose, I accept no responsibility, and I’ll quit writing about college football until the winter.

It feels like I’m walking into a trap, but I’m buying into the idea that Indiana is legitimately good under second-year head coach Curt Cignetti. Since last season, the Hoosiers are 10-1 straight up and 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in Big Ten games with a +15.8 spread differential.

Indiana and Oregon are equal in the stats with a similar strength of schedule. And while Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades aren’t the end-all, be-all, there isn’t a big gap in talent between these rosters, per PFF. Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza leads college football in QB Rating, and the Ducks have scored 30+ points in every game this season.

The Ducks were ranked higher in the preseason polls and went on the road to beat the Penn State Nittany Lions in their last game. But Penn State head coach James Franklin never beats top-10 teams, so how good a win is that? Indiana failed to cover in a 20-15 road win at the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 5.

However, a win is a win in conference play, and Iowa is a solid program. Cignetti is 35-6 in his four seasons in FBS and led the Hoosiers to the College Football Playoff (CFP) last season. Hence, the guy can coach, but we just don’t know if Indiana can hang with the big boys yet. But that’s why they call it gambling, and I’m going to take the points with the Hoosiers.

This is a classic “fade a team after its biggest win of the season” spot, with Florida upsetting the Texas Longhorns 29-21 as +4.5 underdogs Saturday. That snapped a three-game losing skid for the Gators, who scored a combined 33 points in those games. USF’s win last week was more about UT being overrated than Florida being good.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 2-0 in SEC games and knocked off the No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 41-40 on the road. Sports betting analysts I respect say a two-loss Notre Dame team is one of the better teams in the country and can still make the CFP. In fact, the Fighting Irish are the highest-rated opponent either of these teams has faced, per TeamRankings.com.

Plus, Florida’s offense ranks 119th nationally in points per play. QB D.J. Lagway got preseason Heisman hype, but he doesn’t run the ball (26 carries for 23 yards with no rushing touchdowns this season), and he leads the SEC in interceptions (seven). USF is 95th in yards per rush, and the Aggies are third in sack rate, so Lagway will be a sitting duck back there.

Also, the Aggies have more continuity (aka, more returning starters from last year’s squad) and a higher talent composite score, according to 247sports.com. Finally, “Texas A&M -7.5” feels like a sharp number because that hook will scare off public bettors who might overreact to Florida’s victory over the Longhorns last week.

I gave out Iowa’s -125 moneyline in its 38-28 road win over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in OutKick’s newsletter last month. I’m using a similar trend for this handicap: The Hawkeyes are 11-3 ATS as road favorites of -4 or less in Big Ten games under head coach Kirk Ferentz. This includes five straight ATS wins.

Iowa is coming off a “good loss,” covering a +9 road underdogs in a 20-15 loss to Indiana two weeks ago. Wisconsin held on for dear life, covering as +17.5 road underdogs in a 24-10 loss at the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines last week. Despite winning money on the Badgers last week, I wasn’t impressed. They averaged 4.4 yards per play and were lucky to cover.

Initially, I liked the matchup for Wisconsin since its defense is allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, and Michigan is a run-heavy team. But, it turns out the Badgers just haven’t played any good rushing offenses because the Wolverines had 5.1 yards per carry last week. With that in mind, I’m not sure Wisconsin is good at anything football-related.

Lastly, the Badgers should be in obvious passing situations often Saturday since they average just 3.1 yards per rush, and Iowa’s defense allows 2.4 yards per rush. That’s bad news for the Badgers, considering they are 116th in sack rate allowed on offense, and the Hawkeyes are 26th in sack rate.

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