Uncover Saturday’s MLB Best Bets: Can We Extend the Winning Streak Beyond Friday’s Perfect Record?

I swore off the madness of baseball betting during the regular season—too random, too many curveballs. Yet here I am, stubbornly stepping back up to the plate after pocketing wins on both of last Friday’s best bets. At 17-10 and a sweet +29.2% ROI, maybe this hit-and-run strategy isn’t just foolish luck after all. But hey, can lightning strike twice in one weekend? Let’s dig into Saturday’s matchups and see if Alcántara’s shaky start still holds promise against a Diamondbacks bullpen that’s struggling to find its groove. Meanwhile, Houston’s pitchers might just have all the right stuff—especially with McCullers lighting up home stats and a bullpen that’s tighter than a drum. Buckle up; the diamonds aren’t just in the field, they’re in the details… Ready to find out who’s worth your wager tonight? LEARN MORE.

Despite my best judgment, which is to avoid gambling on regular-season MLB since it’s so random, I’m a man of my word, and I’m hitting the diamond again after cashing both best bets Friday. I’m 17-10 this season with a +29.2% return on investment, so maybe my “hit-and-run” baseball betting strategy is sharp. Let’s see if my luck has already run out with two looks for Saturday’s slate.  

Alcántara is having his worst season in the majors after missing last year with an injury. But, he is 2-1 in June with a 2.74 ERA in four outings with three “quality starts” (6.0+ innings pitched with 3 or fewer earned runs). Alcántara has a 30.8% K-rate and .167 batting average in 52 plate appearances vs. active Diamondbacks, per Statcast. 

His 4.70 Fielding Independent Pitching (“FIP”) is better than Pfaadt’s 5.14 FIP. That stat is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher’s control. Also, Alcántara’s 108 Stuff+ ranks 19th among starting pitchers, while Pfaadt’s 97 Stuff+ is 89th, according to FanGraphs. 

Finally, Arizona’s bullpen has a worse ERA, FIP, and WAR, and Miami’s lineup has been raking this past week. Per FanGraphs, the Marlins are top-5 in WAR, wRC+, wOBA, and hard-hit rate over that span. 

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Houston has a clear edge in the pitching matchup. Rea has given up 11 home runs over his last seven starts and 6+ ERs in three of his past five outings. McCullers’ basic numbers look worse than Rea’s, but McCullers has a better Stuff+ (103-96), according to FanGraphs, and FIP (4.77-4.24). 

More importantly, the Astros have the best bullpen FIP and WAR in the majors. Two of their three best relievers didn’t pitch Friday, and All-Star closer Josh Hader only threw three pitches. Lastly, Houston has the second-best home record in baseball, and McCullers has a better winning percentage (68.3-51.2%), ERA (4.26-2.92), and WHIP (1.401-1.136) at home historically. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.