Uncover the Hidden Edges: Must-See Spread and Total Bets for Knicks-Celtics and Nuggets-Thunder Game 1s Monday

Ah, the 2025 NBA Playoffs roll into Monday like a freight train, dragging two heavyweight matchups along for the ride: the New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics and the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets. On one side, you’ve got two colossal markets battling for bragging rights—and, naturally, eyeballs —while on the other, a showdown featuring arguably the two best players in the world, making every dribble and dunk feel absolutely critical. Now, full disclosure — even as someone who’s lived and breathed the NBA for decades, this season has been a tough one for me to love. But here’s the kicker: if you’re not hooked by Monday’s doubleheader, maybe the NBA just isn’t your cup of tea. And if you’re looking for a surefire route to care? Betting, my friend. It turned me from a casual observer into someone who practically lives and breathes every shot, steal, and block. So grab your popcorn and maybe your wallet — I’ve got my picks ready to go, and the odds? They’re the freshest served hot at the time of writing. Ready to see if the Knicks can keep pace with the Celtics or if Denver can outpace OKC’s lightning-fast wheels? Let’s dive in. LEARN MORE

The 2025 NBA Playoffs roll along Monday with the start of the New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets for their conference semifinal openers. The first is a meeting between two of the three biggest markets in the NBA, which should help its TV ratings, and the latter pits the two best players in the world against each other. 

Even as a lifelong NBA fan, I’ve hated this season. That said, if Monday’s doubleheader doesn’t interest you, then the Association just isn’t your thing. Regardless, the best way to get interested in a sport is to bet on it. It worked for me with golf. Besides Tiger Woods, I never watched the PGA TOUR until I started gambling on it religiously. In that vein, here are my picks for Monday. 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

The average total of the four Knicks-Celtics regular season meetings was 224.1, the lowest was 221.5 opening night, and the Celtics were -5.6 favorites on average. Boston is a -9 consensus favorite and the total is 212.5-213 for Game 1. Since the market predicts a lower-scoring affair, it’ll be tougher for the Celtics to cover the spread Monday.

Furthermore, the market is penalizing New York for eking past the Detroit Pistons in the first round 4-2. The last four Pistons-Knicks games were decided by three or fewer points. While the Celtics got the Orlando Magic out in a “gentleman’s sweep” with four wins of at least nine points. But, Detroit is better than Orlando, and NYK covered four of their six games vs. the Pistons. 

Also, the Knicks were built this offseason to beat the Celtics. Will they? No, Boston probably wins this series. However, New York can keep these games close and perhaps steal one or two games. Knicks PG Jalen Brunson is the best guard in this series. New York All-Star C Karl-Anthony Towns is better than Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis. 

NYK has three defensive wings (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges) to throw at Boston’s dynamic duo, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Knicks’ biggest challenge for this series is limiting Boston’s 3-point shooting. Granted, that’s easier said than done. But, if New York extends its perimeter defense or the Celtics have an off-shooting night, they aren’t winning by double digits. 

Boston opened as -8.5 favorites and is moving toward -9.5 across the market. Since my return on investment this NBA season is -7.2% and my “closing line value” is +1.1%, I’m looking to fade the line movement. Especially in this matchup between two high-profile teams that was so one-sided during the regular season. 

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Oklahoma City had the sixth-fastest pace during the regular season and led the first round of the postseason in pace. Denver led the NBA in fastbreak points per game (PPG) in the regular season and ranks fifth in fastbreak offensive efficiency among the 20 playoff and play-in teams, per CleaningTheGlass.com. 

The total chopped 2-2 Over/Under (O/U) in the four Nuggets-Thunder meetings this season. But, three of those games combined for 230+ points, and the average pace of their regular-season series was 101.2. For context, that’s slightly faster than OKC’s playoff pace of 101.1. Denver will push the pace in Game 1 because that’s the best way it can keep up with Oklahoma City. 

Plus, officiating is when it comes to betting totals, and the referee crew assigned to the Nuggets-Thunder Monday have a combined 102-73 O/U record. OKC was 26th in defensive free-throw attempt rate (FTr) in the regular season and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the most free throws per game. Denver was fifth in offensive FTr and Nikola Jokić is as good at drawing fouls as SGA. 

Finally, the trends point to a higher-scoring affair. The Nuggets are playing on one-day rest after beating the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 7 of their first-round series Sunday. Denver is 15-8 O/U with a rest disadvantage and a +8.8 O/U margin. The Thunder are 25-17-1 O/U as a home favorite in the regular season and playoffs. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.