Uncover the Hidden Favorites Poised to Dominate the High-Stakes 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

Only 69 golfers tee off in the opening round of the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs this week, notably missing Rory McIlroy at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis. It’s a sharp reminder that even the sport’s biggest names sometimes hit the pause button, which shakes up the usual rhythm of the playoffs. With just 70 players qualifying for this stage—and only 50 moving on to the BMW Championship before trimming down to the final 30 for the TOUR Championship—the stakes couldn’t be higher. I’m currently holding 16th place in the massive “Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup,” and trust me, keeping my picks quiet for the final two events is as much a tactic as it is paranoia. After a rough patch that’s left me down over 22 units, I’m banking on a rebound, hoping to go back-to-back at TPC Southwind like Hideki Matsuyama did last year—disrespectful odds and all. Will persistence pay off, or is this just another uphill battle? Only time at St. Jude will tell. LEARN MORE

Only 69 golfers are playing the first round of the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs since Rory McIlroyÂ is skipping this weekâsÂ FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipÂ at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. The top 70 in the season-long standings get into the St. Jude, with the top 50 making the second round, the BMW Championship, and then the top 30 getting into the TOUR Championship.Â

If you’re familiar with my PGA TOUR betting pieces, you’ll notice that my “One-And-Done” section isn’t at the bottom this week. Well, I’m 16th in the “Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup” out of 4,500 entries, which pays $7,000, with the winner collecting $100,000. That said, I don’t want the people around me in the standings to know what I’m picking for the next two events, the final two of the season.Â

Entering the 2025 St. Jude, I’m -22.22 units (u) after donking off -1.97u in last week’s Wyndham Championship. While I’ll likely have a losing year betting on golf, I’ve hit an outright in the FedExCup Playoffs in two straight seasons, including Hideki Matsuyama at last year’s St. Jude. Hopefully, I will go back-to-back at TPC Southwind this week since lord knows my bankroll needs it.Â

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below, and they may have changed since then.Â

Granted, Hideki is my guy, but these odds are disrespectful. In fact, Matsuyama won this tournament twice last year. He held a five-stroke lead after three rounds, lost the lead with a double-bogey on the 15th hole in the final round, before rallying to birdie the last two holes to win the 2024 FedEx St. Jude by two strokes.Â

Remarkably, Hideki won despite his biggest strength, around-the-green (ARG) play, turning into his biggest weakness at the St. Jude. He’s been the best chipper on TOUR over the past few seasons, but was -3.3 Strokes Gained (SG): ARG at TPC Southwind last year. Yet, Matsuyama has gained strokes putting in four straight St. Jude’s, and on the greens in eight of his last nine starts overall.Â

As I said last week, Hideki has been struggling to hit fairways this summer. However, despite going out of bounds off-the-tee (OTT) on his second hole in the second round, which led to a triple-bogey, Matsuyama was ninth in driving accuracy in a T19 (-10) finish at the Wyndham Championship last week.Â

If (and itâs a big “if”) Hideki stays in the fairway this week, and gains strokes on the field with his irons and putter, like he usually does, he can win back-to-back St. Judes. Crazier things have happened, and Matsuyama has been dialed in with his irons lately, the most important predictive skill in golf. He is second in this field for SG: Approach (APP) over the last 20 rounds, per Betsperts Golf.Â

My other two St. Jude bets are based on value, whereas this is mostly based on vibes. Granted, there are statistical arguments I’ll make for Burns. But he is an LSU alum, born and raised in Louisiana, so he’s familiar with playing in the sweltering heat down south. Burns is one of the best putters in the world, and Bermudagrass greens are his best putting surface.Â

Per Betsperts Golf, Burns is tied with Ludvig Ãberg in total driving, which includes distance and accuracy, over the last 36 rounds. It’s important to be long and accurate OTT this week since TPC Southwind is sneaky long with a ton of water hazards. Burns has gained strokes in ball-striking, which combines OTT and APP, in seven straight starts, and all five appearances in the St. Jude.Â

Furthermore, I hate using the word “due” in sports betting, but Burns is due for a win. He finished T5 at the 2024 St. Jude and lost to Abraham Ancer, along with Matsuyama, in 2021. Burns lost in a playoff at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open when I bet him, and blew a three-round lead at the U.S. Open, finishing T7.Â

Burns is a five-time PGA TOUR winner with three wins down south at crossover courses to TPC Southwind, such as the 2021-22 Valspar Championship and 2021 Sanderson Farms Championship. Lastly, a win here would probably clinch a spot on the coveted 2025 American Ryder Cup team.Â

Currently, he is playing much better than his +4500 odds indicate. Per Betsperts Golf, Gotterup is second in this field in total strokes gained (SG) over his last 20 rounds, behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Gotterup won the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open last month, his second career PGA TOUR win (his first was a meaningless alternate event that almost doesnât count).Â

He backed that up with a third-place finish at The 153rd Open Championship the following week. Over the last 16 rounds, Gotterup is second in this field for SG: Putting, according to BetTheNumber.com. Recent winners have been “rolling a hot putter” entering the St. Jude, and Bermudagrass is Gotterupâs best putting surface.Â

Also, driver usage at TPC Southwind has been 20% higher than the PGA TOUR average since 2020. With that in mind, Gotterup is seventh in SG: OTT on TOUR this season, and third in driving distance. Plus, he is third in SG: Ball-Striking over the last 36 rounds, according to BetTheNumber.com.Â

Gotterupâs recent play isnât a fluke; rather, he is playing up to his potential. He won the 2022 Haskins and Jack Nicklaus awards for the best collegiate golfer, and he can overpower any course in the world. Maybe this is just a peek into Gotterup’s future, or perhaps he is just on a heater. Either way, my “fair odds” for him are +3000.Â

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X throughout the entire season.Â