Uncover the Shocking NFL Week 11 Picks That Could Change Everything in My Circa Million VII Game!
After a scorching 4-1 run last week in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest, I found myself wide-eyed at 3 a.m., still buzzing from Sunday Night Football and diving headfirst into Week 11’s matchups. Is it just me, or does the board suddenly look clearer than a crystal ball, with Philly’s “Statement Sunday” leading the charge? Revenge games, let-down spots, and confidence-graded picks—I’ve assembled a lineup that’s more than just hopeful chatter. Even if I don’t crack the top 100 for the Circa Million payouts, the heat I’m on in the quarterlies suggests money’s still rolling my way. So buckle up—here comes the smart bettor’s guide to a sixth consecutive winning week. Ready to question everything you thought about last week’s teams? Let’s get into it. LEARN MORE.
I was so jacked about going 4-1 last week in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest that I stayed up until 3 a.m. Monday morning after Sunday Night Football, and dug into Week 11. I’m probably jinxing myself by saying this, but I’m seeing the board well. Philly leads my card on a “Statement Sunday,” with revenge angles and a let-down game rounding out the five picks.
Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.
Even if I can’t finish in the top 100 of the Circa Million, which is where the payouts begin, I can still make money in this contest in the third and fourth quarterlies. The third quarter began last week and ends in Week 13. It pays out the top-five records over that span, with first place winning $150,000, and I’m on a heater. That said, let’s get a sixth straight winning week.
This will be a Statement Game for Philly (7-2). Detroit is getting more hype, but Philadelphia is the reigning Super Bowl champion. Frankly, anything below “Eagles -3” at home vs. anyone is disrespectful, and they will put it on the Lions (6-3) Sunday. Lincoln Financial Field is one of the toughest places to play, and Detroit QB Jared Goff notoriously struggles outdoors the colder it gets.
Philly has the better quarterback, coach, and defense. It is better in the trenches on both sides of the ball and has more game-breakers on offense. Lastly, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the defense playing well. They picked up a young, talented pass rusher, Jaelen Phillips, at the trade deadline, and the Lions’ offensive line is weaker this season.
This is a Let-Down Game for Atlanta, whose season ended with a 31-26 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in overtime last week in Berlin. The Falcons need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to start losing games to win the division, and Carolina (5-3) beat Atlanta in their first meeting this season. Forget the wild card; the Falcons are 3-6, and there are too many good NFC teams.
Plus, Atlanta is a bad favorite because it struggles in high-leverage situations, which is where you create margin. The Falcons are 26th in third-down conversion differential and 23rd in red-zone scoring differential. That falls on both Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr. and head coach Raheem Morris. Whether it’s bad coaching or quarterbacking, the Falcons crap their pants on offense.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are second in net early-down success rate (EDSR), behind the Los Angeles Rams, and Atlanta is 19th. EDSR is predictive because the whole playbook is open on first and second downs. So, not only are the Falcons terrible on late downs, but Carolina is better on early downs.
I’m fading the market’s overreaction to the Panthers losing 17-7 to the last-place New Orleans Saints last week, and this being a Revenge Game for the Falcons after getting crushed by Carolina 30-0 in Week 3. Finally, you just have to ignore the Panthers’ losses. They are 4-0 against the spread after a loss this season with a +14.1 spread differential.
I’ve already discussed why I’m taking the Dolphins (3-7) in this game on Wednesday. The bottom line: Miami is trending up and QB Tua Tagovailoa can torch Washington’s abysmal defense, while the Commanders (3-7) are trending down without QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin. Washington hasn’t hit its “market low” yet, but it will after this week.
This is a Revenge Game for the Chargers (7-3). They choked away a 27-point lead in a 31-30 loss to Jacksonville in the 2023 AFC Wild Card Round. You might dismiss that by saying, “Both teams had different coaching staffs.” However, four of LAC’s captains this season played in that game: QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, pass-rusher Khalil Mack, and S Derwin James.
There’s no way those guys don’t remember that loss. No bulls*it, it was one of the worst losses I’ve ever seen, and I bet Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is reminding them in practice to make sure they are up for this game. They have a bye next week, and this game has massive playoff implications.
Also, the Jaguars (5-4) are fugazi. Their success is so dependent on turnovers, which isn’t sustainable, and QB Trevor Lawrence sucks. He is only playing better than two guys this season: Tennessee Titans rookie QB Cam Ward and Cleveland Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. The Chargers have a good defense with a few game-wreckers, like Derwin and Mack, and again, Lawrence sucks.
Ultimately, the Chargers have a better quarterback, defense, and coaching staff, full motivation, and can “empty the tank” Sunday, so to speak, because they don’t have to play next week.
This will be another Statement Game. I love Seattle (7-2) and all, but there are levels to this, and LAR (7-2) is a tier higher than the Seahawks. Rams QB Matthew Stafford is the betting favorite to win the NFL MVP entering Week 11, and they lead the league in net EDSR. The Rams have a better coach and defense, and are better in high-leverage situations.
Furthermore, LAR’s defense is Seattle QB Sam Darnold‘s toughest test yet. The Seahawks have the highest rushing rate in the league, and the Rams are seventh in yards per rush allowed. Hence, Seattle will have to convert a bunch of third-and-longs, and LAR’s pass-rushers can pin their ears back and get after Darnold.
Essentially, this is where the Rams will win the game. Shoutout to The Ringer’s Anthony Dabbundo for this stat via Trumedia: LAR is fourth in EPA per dropback on third-and-six-plus or fourth-and-six-plus, and Seattle is 27th. The Rams sacked Darnold 12 times in their two meetings last season when he played for the Minnesota Vikings, including nine sacks in the playoffs.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.
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