Uncover the Surprising DST Picks That Could Dominate Fantasy Football Week 9!

Sunday’s NFL slate threw us a curveball wrapped in a statistical anomaly—it was arguably one of the most bafflingly lopsided weeks in recent memory. Just a single contest hung on a razor-thin margin, while six others blew up by more than 20 points. Not to mention, the favorites steamrolled to an 11-2 record and the league shuffled out six teams on bye, doubling the usual number, causing some odd matchups and putting defenses into weird spots — like the Dolphins slotting as a top 10 defense against the Falcons. It was a peculiar stretch, to say the least.

I nailed a few rankings—Bucs, Bills, Patriots, Chargers made the top 10, and Houston nearly cracked the list despite a tough draw. The Broncos and Browns snuck into the upper echelon, defying their less-than-ideal matchups. This trend tells me one thing loud and clear: investing in proven strong defenses outshines chasing hot-now plays like the Bengals, who I had tenth but spectacularly imploded versus the Jets. Still, I fumbled the Falcons and Bears—shows we have to be wary of defenses that can’t keep a steady hand week after week, and that no defense is instantly playable just because the opposition looks vulnerable.

Here’s the deal—as always, below you’ll find not just my weekly rankings, but a deeper dive into what makes these defenses tick and why they earn their spots in my tiers. Tier One? That’s my creme de la creme, the can’t-miss elite. Tier Two holds the solid performers, Tier Three often maps those borderline top-10 defenses—sometimes great units facing tough matchups or middling squads with cakewalk opponents. Tier Four caters to the deep-leaguers hunting for hidden value, and Tier Five… well, that group is basically the “stay away” list for the week. Each week, I’m tracking how well I’m calling the top defenses to hold myself accountable, and keep you in the loop on the reliability of these BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings.

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It was a bit of a weird week in the NFL on Sunday. It was statistically one of the worst weeks of football ever, and only one game was decided by single digits. Six games were 20+ point blowouts, the favorites went 11-2, and the NFL somehow decided to have six teams on bye after a week where just two teams were on bye. That led to some weirdness, like the Dophins being a top 10 defense against the Falcons, but the rest kind of played out as we should have expected with defenses.

I hit on the Bucs, Bills, Patriots, Chargers as top 10 defenses, and Houston just missed despite being in a bad matchup. The Broncos and Browns also finished inside the top 10 despite bad matchups, and it’s kind of starting to show us that these strong defenses need to be played regardless of matchup over those trendy streamers, like the Bengals, who I had ranked 10th this week and just faceplanted against the Jets in epic fashion.

I also missed big on the Falcons and Bears, so we’re continuing to learn that we need to be wary of defenses that can’t be consistent, and we also can’t play any defense in a good matchup, regardless of how bad that defense is.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 8: 6-4

SEASON-LONG: 41-39

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + TACKLE FOR A LOSS RATE+ (TURNOVER RATE x 2))

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))

I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points scored per game over the last six weeks because fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

Early on in the season, the Saints were just a mediocre matchup for opposing fantasy defenses, and while last week’s beatdown at the hands of the Bucs may have skewed the numbers, things were clearly trending downward for the Saints over the last few weeks. They have allowed an average of 11 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month and will likely be turning to Tyler Shough at quarterback, which is not really much of an upgrade. Over the last six weeks, the Rams rank 2nd in pressure rate, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, 5th in conversion rate allowed, 9th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in turnover rate so they are a really strong defense that I feel confident in playing after seeing what the Bucs did to the Saints.

The last time we saw the Lions play, they were missing essentially their entire starting secondary, so we really need to pay attention to their injury report this week. However, I expect them to get both Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph back this week and could also get one or both of Terrion Arnold or Avonte Maddox back as well. Those would be very welcome additions against a Vikings offense that is going to turn the reins over to rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy this week. Even while dealing with these injuries over the last six weeks, the Lions rank 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, 5th in turnover rate, 7th in pressure rate, and 11th in conversion rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Vikings have given up 10 fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I’m not sure that’s going to get better this week.

I know some people may not have the Jaguars this high, but they rank 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, 9th in turnover rate, and 12th in EPA per play allowed over the last six weeks. That has led to just 6.4 fantasy points per game, since they have spiked some big weeks and had some poor weeks, but the Raiders give up 11 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. It’s still unclear if Jakobi Meyers is going to play, and I think this Jaguars defense is opportunistic enough to take advantage of a Raiders offense that has Geno Smith leading the league in interceptions and is also dead last as a team in turnover rate. I expect some big plays from Jacksonville here.

The Chargers are in a juicy matchup against a Titans offense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season. However, we also need to acknowledge that the Chargers’ defense hasn’t been great. Over the last six weeks, they rank 5th in rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain and 12th in conversion rate allowed, but are not top 12 in any other really meaningful stats, and have averaged just 4.7 fantasy points per game. Yes, Khalil Mack will be another week healthier, and this is a great matchup, but I’m always a little leery of defenses that aren’t performing.

A big factor in this Patriots ranking will be the health of Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London, who both missed Week 8 for the Falcons. I do expect both to play, but that’s already kind of factored in here. Over the last six weeks, the Patriots rank 5th in EPA per play allowed, 6th in turnover rate, and 6th in opponents’ scoring rate, so this is a strong defense. They are also 3rd in the NFL in rushing defense EPA, and we know that the Falcons want to run the ball. If the Patriots can contain Bijan Robinson, I’m just not sure I see a path for this Falcons team to beat them.

The Seahawks are another team that will depend on injuries. Jayden Daniels didn’t play on Monday night with a knee injury, and then Terry McLaurin, who looked great on Monday, left the game with a quad injury. Considering a quad injury is what kept him out for weeks before Week 8, I’m not optimistic that McLaurin can suit up on Sunday, which is a problem for the Commanders. Over the last month, this Commanders offense has allowed nine fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are averaging 8.8 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks while ranking 4th in conversion rate allowed, 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 11th in EPA per play allowed. This feels like a game where we could get seven to nine points from Seattle.

I know the Texans’ offense handled the 49ers without both Nico Collins and Christian Kirk on Sunday, but the 49ers are banged up and have no pass rush. They rank 28th in the NFL in pressure rate. That’s not going to help you against this vulnerable Texans offensive line. Meanwhile, the Broncos rank 3rd in pressure rate, which makes them a terrible opponent for the Houston Texans. The Broncos also rank 1st in conversion rate allowed, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 6th in EPA per play allowed over the last six weeks, so I think they are firmly in play against the Texans. However, we should keep an eye on Patrick Surtain’s practice report because the defense would be downgraded if he’s out.

This Packers spot feels a bit like the Bengals spot last week. This is a defense that has not performed and is averaging just four fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. They rank 9th in conversion rate allowed, but are not near the top 10 in any other meaningful stats, so we are playing them just for their matchup. However, the reason the Packers are different from the Bengals is that their defense has been disappointing but hasn’t been downright bad. The Panthers also lost three starting offensive linemen to injury on Sunday, which could be bad news against Micah Parsons and company

The Texans are not in a good spot against a Broncos offense that gives up just 2.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. However, this Texans defense is elite. Over the last six weeks, they rank 1st in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, 1st in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in conversion rate allowed, 3rd in turnover rate, 4th in rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, and 11th in pressure rate. I know Bo Nix has lit up some bad defenses over the last couple of weeks, but this is a massive step up in competition for him, and I’m not sure he’ll respond.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

This tier is littered with good defenses in matchups that we really don’t like. Your desire to trust those defenses when they could get you just four or five points will likely be a big determining factor in how you approach defense this week.

I just mentioned above that the 49ers’ defense hasn’t been good. They’re averaging just 3.7 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, but there’s an outside chance that Yetur Gross-Matos, Bryce Huff, Alfred Collins, Dee Winters, and Jordan Elliott could all play on Sunday. The Giants will now be without Cam Skattebo for the rest of the season, and, as great as Jaxson Dart has been, having your top options be Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. will have to catch up with this offense at some point.

This Colts defense has been solid, averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks while ranking 6th in pressure rate and 10th in turnover rate. The Steelers are only allowing 2.7 fantasy points per game to defenses over the last month, but I still think Aaron Rodgers will take some sacks

The Bears’ defense was exposed a bit against the Ravens on Sunday, but, over the last six weeks, they rank 1st in the NFL in turnover rate and 8th in EPA per play allowed while scoring 8.8 fantasy points per game, so there is some juice here still. Ja’Marr Chase is going to get his in this game, and the Bears have been just an average defense against the run, so I don’t think they will stifle Chase Brown, but Joe Flacco is immobile, which could lead to some sacks here. The main issue I have is that the Bears’ best attribute is their ability to generate turnovers, but Flacco hasn’t turned the ball over once in his three games in Cincinnati, and Shemar Turner is also likely out for this game, which is not great.

The Vikings rank 1st in pressure rate, 1st in rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, 10th in conversion rate allowed, and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks. However, they face a Lions team that allows just 3.3 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so it’s hard to trust Minnesota here.

The Chiefs and Bills can both get after the quarterback, with the Chiefs ranking 4th in pressure rate and the Bills ranking 5th. The only issue is that neither offensive line is really allowing much pressure. The Chiefs are 4th in turnover rate over the last six weeks, while the Bills are 13th, and that could be a key role here. I think this Chiefs defense is just better, while the Bills’ passing game is a little stuck right now.

The Saints have been an interesting defense of late. Over the last six weeks, they rank 7th in turnover rate, 10th in the rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, and 13th in EPA per play allowed. I just really don’t like their offense or their matchup against the Rams.

The Raiders are coming off a bye against an inconsistent Jaguars offense that could also have Brian Thomas Jr. banged up with a shoulder injury. Over the last six weeks, the Raiders rank 7th in the rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain.

Miami handled the Falcons on Sunday and has looked inspired on defense a bit lately; however, I expect Lamar Jackson to be back, and I can’t play the Dolphins’ defense against Lamar on a short week.

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.

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