Uncover the Surprising Secret Hidden Within the Article You Thought You Knew
Bo Nix’s sudden exit just moments after clinching a vital touchdown pass has left the Denver Broncos—and fans everywhere—wondering if this thrilling AFC Championship Sunday will play out differently than expected. I mean, isn’t it ironic? The guy who looked like the luckiest charm on the field ends up sidelined with a broken ankle, passing the baton to Jarrett Stidham against one of the league’s sharpest quarterbacks, MVP hopeful Drake Maye. The Broncos’ defense has been their backbone all season, but can they truly carry the weight without their starting quarterback? And how will Stidham, returning from a two-year NFL hiatus, handle the pressure cooker of a conference title game? It’s a classic “what if” scenario—and one that makes Sunday’s showdown against the Patriots all the more electrifying. As Sean Payton cryptically put it: “Just watch.” Ready to see how this high-stakes chess match unfolds? LEARN MORE
Bo Nix’s absence will loom over Sunday’s AFC championship game as Jarrett Stidham is set to start for the Broncos against MVP candidate Drake Maye and the Patriots.
For most of this season, it seemed like everything went their way.
The Denver Broncos put together an NFL-high 11-game winning streak on the way to the best record in the AFC at 14-3. They went 11-2 in games decided by eight points or fewer, giving them both the most wins and best winning percentage (.846) in the league in close games.
So when Bo Nix threw a go-ahead touchdown pass with 55 seconds remaining in their AFC divisional round matchup against the Buffalo Bills, it seemed like business as usual.
And it was no surprise that, even after the Bills forced overtime, it was the Broncos who emerged as victors on Wil Lutz’s 23-yard field goal.
The only real surprise came after the game was over.
After Saturday’s win, Denver coach Sean Payton held an uneventful, 13-minute postgame press conference to members of the media before ceding the stage to his players.
However, Payton later returned to announce that Nix had sustained a broken right ankle and was ruled out for the rest of the postseason. It was a stunning turn of events and a devastating blow for a team one win away from a trip to the Super Bowl.
Payton told reporters that Nix injured his ankle on a first-down rushing attempt during the final drive of overtime but remained in the game. On the following play, Nix threw a pass that drew a 30-yard pass interference penalty that moved the ball inside Buffalo’s 10-yard line, essentially sealing the victory.
Nix took one more snap, centering the ball on a kneel-down, and gave an uneventful on-field interview before having X-rays. According to Payton, half the team had left the stadium by the time the team received the results.
Nix’s absence will loom over Sunday’s AFC championship game as Jarrett Stidham is set to start against the New England Patriots, but the Broncos are still projecting confidence.
“(Stidham) is ready,” Payton told reporters. “I said this at the beginning of the season – I feel like I’ve got a (backup) that’s capable of starting for a number of teams, and I know he feels the same way … Just watch.”
The Patriots, on the other hand, don’t need to convince anyone of their confidence after last weekend’s 28-16 win over the Houston Texans put them in their first conference title game since Tom Brady took them to eight straight from 2011-18.
Riding high after winning two playoff games at home, these young Patriots will face a new kind of test when they head to Denver this weekend.
Can the Broncos Win With Jarrett Stidham at QB?
There is no question that Nix’s absence will be a major factor on Sunday, but there are some reasons to believe that Denver could overcome the setback.
First, the Broncos’ success this season has come less from Nix’s offense and more from a defense that ranks second in the league in success rate allowed at 36.9%.
During the regular season, the Broncos ranked third in scoring defense with 18.3 points allowed per game. They were also 10-0 when surrendering 22 points or fewer.
Even on offense, the Broncos aren’t built squarely on Nix’s shoulders.
While Nix led the NFL with 612 pass attempts, only 37.4% of the passing game came on pure drop-back concepts, which typically require the quarterback to read the entire defense and deliver throws downfield.
The rest of Denver’s aerial passing game came from quick throws, screens, bootlegs and other concepts that ease the burden of decision-making on the quarterback’s shoulders.
Broncos Player Projections
- QB Jarrett Stidham: 18 of 30, 168 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RB RJ Harvey: 15 carries for 68 yards, 1 TD
- WR Courtland Sutton: 4 catches for 51 yards
- WR Marvin Mims Jr.: 4 catches for 29 yards
Of Denver’s 3,931 passing yards this season, 53.7% of them came after the catch. That’s the eighth-highest rate in the league and the highest among the four remaining playoff teams.
An experienced coach like Payton will be sure to give Stidham some easy throws, especially early, to ease him into the flow of the game.
While Payton has expressed his confidence in Stidham, the Auburn product hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game in over two years. His 2023 arrival in Denver, however, did coincide with Payton’s hiring, and he has had three seasons to learn Payton’s playbook.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from Stidham, either regarding his play style or performance, but his two starts in 2023 under Payton could contain some clues.
In those two games, Stidham was 40 for 66 passing for 496 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The Broncos were 1-1 in those games but scored a total of 30 points.
Stidham had an 85.2% well-thrown rate in those games, well above the league average of 80.8%, but he also dumped the ball off to a check-down receiver on 24.6% of his adjusted attempts, more than double the NFL average.
Although over a small sample size, the advanced numbers of Stidham’s play in 2023 paint a picture of a conservative game plan. The Broncos will likely play a field-position game to lean on their defense and take pressure off Stidham.
With the Denver offense willing to grind out a low-scoring game, the pressure could shift to Drake Maye and the Patriots on the road against a top-tier defense, a true strength-on-strength matchup.
Maye made an extraordinary leap in his second season, playing his way into the MVP conversation with a league-leading 72.0% completion rate, 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His 450 yards and four touchdowns on the ground were also crucial for a team that lacks superstar talent at the skill positions.
Patriots Player Projections
- QB Drake Maye: 21 of 30, 261 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson: 11 carries for 43 yards
- WR Stefon Diggs: 5 catches for 64 yards
- TE Hunter Henry: 4 catches for 52 yards
This postseason, the degree of difficulty has been turned up, with the Patriots earning wins against the tough defenses of the Chargers and Texans. As good as Maye has been, his ball security has become a topic of conversation this week in New England.
Maye has thrown an interception in each of his first two playoff games, and he has fumbled an alarming six times, losing three of them. Now his poise may be the key to victory on Sunday against a high-pressure Denver defense.
The Broncos registered a league-high 68 sacks in the regular season, led by Nik Bonito’s 14. Denver also ranked fourth in pressure rate at 51.7% and sixth in blitz rate at 37.6%.
It feels inevitable that the Broncos’ defense will create pressure against Maye, but it will be interesting to see how often they choose to blitz the young star quarterback.
Maye had a 121.2 passer rating against the blitz in the regular season – the second highest in the league – and had a 112.8 passer rating against the blitz in his first two postseason games.
Maye has yet to throw an interception against the blitz this season, but he also has a higher completion rate and yards per attempt when opposing teams drop into coverage. That creates an interesting give-and-take for Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.
Championship Sunday is often more memorable than the Super Bowl, with legends being born against conference rivals.
The last seven AFC championship games have centered around the Kansas City Chiefs. But with Patrick Mahomes injured and the Chiefs relegated to playoff observers, the door is open for new storylines and heroes.
Opta Supercomputer’s Pick: Patriots 57.6%
Will Maye continue his rapid ascent to the ranks of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks by leading the Patriots back to the Super Bowl? Or can the Broncos lean on their ferocious defense and rally around Stidham?
Payton may have summed it up best as he closed his second postgame press conference last weekend: “Just watch.”
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Patriots vs. Broncos Predictions: Can Denver Win the AFC Championship Game Without Bo Nix? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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