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Uncovering the Hidden Clues in NBA Preseason That Could Rewrite the 2025-26 Season Dynamics
The NBA preseason — often ignored, frequently dismissed, but is it really just a sideshow? Imagine an appetizer that not only whets your appetite but hints at exactly what’s coming in the main course. That’s the preseason in a nutshell: a tantalizing prelude to the 82-game grind and playoff fever. Sure, the wins and losses don’t count, but there’s a sneaky correlation hiding in the numbers that suggests how teams perform now might subtly foreshadow their fate. Are your favorite squads just warming up, or are they quietly announcing their arrival? Let’s dive into the nitty-gritty and see what the preseason whispers about the 2025-26 NBA campaign — surprises and all. LEARN MORE.
The NBA preseason is usually dismissed as unimportant. But there might be something to learn from how teams play before the real games start.
To many, the NBA preseason is just the introductory meal – the appetizer to the main dish that is the 82-game regular season and four-round playoffs.Â
Since these games don’t count toward a team’s win-loss total, very few people factor them in when trying to project how a group will perform in the upcoming season.
But what can we glean from exhibition play? And what hints might this preseason give us about the 2025-26 NBA season?
The Meaning of the NBA Preseason
The obvious thing that everyone wants to know is whether having a good or bad preseason serves as a precursor for what is to come. Conventional wisdom might tell you that since these games have no bearing on the standings, the answer is no. The best example of this is the 2008 Detroit Lions, who went 4-0 in the preseason before going 0-16 in the regular season.
However, from looking at past NBA data, it seems like there is at least some correlation between how a team performs in the preseason and what it says about its efficacy.Â
In the last five years, 36 of the 50 teams (72%) that finished top 10 in net rating during the preseason ended up making the playoffs. Twenty of those 50 teams (40%) even went on to win at least one playoff series.
Meanwhile, only 22 of the 50 teams (44%) that finished in the bottom 10 in net rating advanced to the playoffs, and only nine of those teams (18%) won at least one playoff series.
With this in mind, let’s look at the top 10 teams in net rating from this preseason.
If recent history continues, we can project that seven of these 10 teams will make the playoffs. We can probably remove the Brooklyn Nets and New Orleans Pelicans from this list, as both those teams are projected to be bottom-feeders in their respective conferences (ranking 29th and 26th in preseason TRACR, respectively).Â
That leaves us with seven of the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers, Orlando Magic, Dallas Mavericks, Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves advancing to the postseason. Of those teams, the Celtics and Suns are the ones that draw the most skepticism. Neither feels like a playoff team, but according to this methodology, at least one of them likely will make it.
The Other Side of the Coin
The top teams in preseason net rating can be a little more optimistic, but what about the teams that weren’t good in preseason play?
In theory, only four or five of these teams will be among the final 16 remaining at the conclusion of the regular season. We can probably eliminate the Utah Jazz (27th in preseason TRACR), but even then, that leaves us with at least four more teams from this group missing the playoffs.Â
The Indiana Pacers will be without their best player this season (Tyrese Haliburton, 4th in DRIP), and depending on how the body of Joel Embiid (9th in DRIP) holds up, the Philadelphia 76ers may be dealing with a similar situation. These could be two more teams that miss the cut.
Preseason TRACR really likes the Sacramento Kings (12th) and Portland Trail Blazers (11th) this season, but given how unforgiving the Western Conference expects to be, they also could be prime candidates to not make the postseason.
But what if some of those teams do end up sneaking into the Sweet 16? We could see a team like the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat or Atlanta Hawks severely underperform their personal expectations.Â
Which Team Will Surprise?
One other thing to note is that the “surprise” team of the year tends to have a strong preseason. In 2021-22, the Chicago Bulls finished second in net rating in the preseason and went on to win 15 more games than they did in 2020-21. The Sacramento Kings were first in preseason net rating in 2022-23 and had an 18-game improvement. The Orlando Magic were fifth in net rating and had a 13-win bump. Last year, the Detroit Pistons were seventh in net rating before their record-breaking turnaround.
Looking ahead, the Spurs could be the team that takes the leap this season. San Antonio led the NBA in preseason net rating. Last year, the Spurs were a respectable 23-29 before Victor Wembanyama (7th in DRIP) went down with deep vein thrombosis. They finished 11-19 without him.
Now Wembanyama returns healthy and ready to cement himself as one of the best players in the league. Plus, the Spurs boast a new supporting cast around him, featuring the likes of Luke Kornet, Kelly Olynyk, De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant.Â
While winning in the preseason is a good indicator of future success, a poor prelude won’t disqualify a team from competing for the grand prize. Over the last 10 years, only six NBA champions had top-10 net ratings. Two of those teams (the 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks and 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers) even had bottom-10 net ratings in their preseasons.Â
So, it shouldn’t be much cause for concern that the Oklahoma City Thunder (our highest-rated Western Conference team) were 17th in net rating or that the Cavaliers (our highest-rated Eastern Conference team) were 22nd.Â
At the end of the day, the preseason will never be as fun as what comes after it. That’s just the nature of the beast. But it is worth keeping tabs on because it does seem to matter – at least a little bit.Â
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post What the NBA Preseason Can Tell Us About the 2025-26 Season appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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